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#wheat prices are coming under pressure. Seasonally this is typical this time of year, especially when North Hem harvest is imminent & in reasonable shape globally.
Locally, while we take our lead from offshore, the weakness has also been bought about by strong May rainfall.
#ABARES June report:
#wheat is -26% YoY, but only marginally down on the 10YR avg (LY was an outlier). Market estimates range from 21Mt-30Mt.
Decent #barley forecast, albeit down from LY record. #canola similiar story.
#lentil forecast at a record, topping LY's record! ๐
๐ง๏ธMay rainfall is now in the gauge & for many, it was welcome. The market fell in the north as a result, with central & NNSW/SQLD receiving reasonable rain which will see additional acres planted.
WA had a tough May, however received some rainfall overnight which will help.
The great #barley rally has faltered!
Rumours of imports into QLD from WA & welcome rain has hurt prices in NSW/QLD, with falls more muted in VIC/SA.
Exports continue to run at a record with spring weather also to come but for now, consumers are breathing a sigh of relief.
๐ง๏ธRainfall since 9am yesterday.
Lots of happy growers around Moree & up into QLD after a tough 2026 to date.
Some very unfortunate misses though with western parts of NSW like Walgett receiving next to nothing.
Fingers crossed we get more ๐ง๏ธ
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๐ง๏ธMap showing rainfall for the week ending 9am this morning.
Strong totals for many and will really help confidence in the crop going forward - especially for those in the south that were already sitting on moisture. Northern NSW/QLD will need to see lots more though.
@BenBoughton1 yep, & plenty of growers west of the Newell in NSW who will need much more than last nights rain to have a swing this year - 30mm won't touch the sides. Some great falls being sent through from our clients further south where they are in better shape, which is fantastic.
Limit Up in US wheat markets overnight! ๐
The May WASDE cut production deeper than the mkt expected. It was centred around huge revisions to the HRW crop.
This'll likely have Aussie markets higher today across both new & old crop - which will be very welcome to growers!
๐ข March ABS Pulse Exports๐ข:
#lentils: 85k (โฌ๏ธ94kt MoM). Record exports but Vic exports are incredibly slow at ~200kt so far. Lots of stock yet to come to market whereas SA is running on fumes.
#chickpeas: 27kt (โฌ๏ธ265kt MoM). Program mostly done.
#lupins: 17kt(โฌ๏ธ34kt MoM)
๐ฃABS March Exports ๐ข:
#wheat 1.99Mt (โฌ๏ธ116kt MoM). NSW exports down sharply. WA/SA accounted for ~81% of total vol.
#barley 1.35Mt (โฌ๏ธ152kt MoM). Record season so far, record March๐. Only one game in town - CHINA๐จ๐ณ.
#canola 558kt (โฌ๏ธ324kt MoM). Decent East Coast exports.
Barley punches even higher in NSW/QLD๐
BAR1 delivered into the Darling Downs is north of $440/t. NSW prices are also rising as consumers continue to bid on any stock coming to market.
VIC prices are rallying (~$320 port equiv), with SA prices a bit more stagnant.
The great barley rally continues ๐.. well in NSW/QLD at least.
Delivered Downs barley is ~$430/t & the market is busy trying to calculate how close WA/SA supplies are to pricing a vessel to QLD. Southern markets are stronger on record export volumes & low grower selling.
After solid March rainfall for those in southern cropping zones, April was not a good month. May has started much better, with some welcome falls over the weekend.
Unfortunately, much of NSW & QLD missed these latest rains, received nothing in April & remain desperate for rain
Crazy move in the May-26 MATIF Rapeseed Contract overnight... Up $180/t overnight! ๐
Before any Aussie growers get excited, the May-26 contract is in delivery & being squeezed. Our market will take no notice, instead reacting to what Aug-26 did, which was up a measly $7/t.
While #barley is ripping higher in NSW/QLD, #wheat is not being left behind. Plenty of stock is now trading at >$400/t port equivalent in the north, with SFW1 delivered Darling Downs at $440-445.
Will we see imports from WA/SA in the next couple of months...?