Market Check

We exist to tip the scales in growers' favour. 30+ years of independent grain marketing strategy, education & execution across Australia. 🌾

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

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[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

#wheat prices are coming under pressure. Seasonally this is typical this time of year, especially when North Hem harvest is imminent & in reasonable shape globally.

Locally, while we take our lead from offshore, the weakness has also been bought about by strong May rainfall.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

#ABARES June report:

#wheat is -26% YoY, but only marginally down on the 10YR avg (LY was an outlier). Market estimates range from 21Mt-30Mt.

Decent #barley forecast, albeit down from LY record. #canola similiar story.

#lentil forecast at a record, topping LY's record! 🚀

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

🌧️May rainfall is now in the gauge & for many, it was welcome. The market fell in the north as a result, with central & NNSW/SQLD receiving reasonable rain which will see additional acres planted.

WA had a tough May, however received some rainfall overnight which will help.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

The great #barley rally has faltered!

Rumours of imports into QLD from WA & welcome rain has hurt prices in NSW/QLD, with falls more muted in VIC/SA.

Exports continue to run at a record with spring weather also to come but for now, consumers are breathing a sigh of relief.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

🌧️Rainfall since 9am yesterday.

Lots of happy growers around Moree & up into QLD after a tough 2026 to date.

Some very unfortunate misses though with western parts of NSW like Walgett receiving next to nothing.

Fingers crossed we get more 🌧️

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

Market Check is launching our first Graduate Program in 2027, with applications now open🌾

Gain experience in the grains industry across Operations, Logistics, Trading & Advisory.

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Applications close 31 Aug 2026

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[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

🌧️Map showing rainfall for the week ending 9am this morning.

Strong totals for many and will really help confidence in the crop going forward - especially for those in the south that were already sitting on moisture. Northern NSW/QLD will need to see lots more though.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

Biggest rainfall that northern NSW/Queensland has received for some time.

Map shows rainfall from 9am yesterday to this morning.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

@BenBoughton1 yep, & plenty of growers west of the Newell in NSW who will need much more than last nights rain to have a swing this year - 30mm won't touch the sides. Some great falls being sent through from our clients further south where they are in better shape, which is fantastic.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

Biggest rainfall that northern NSW/Queensland has received for some time.

Map shows rainfall from 9am yesterday to this morning.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

Limit Up in US wheat markets overnight! 🚀

The May WASDE cut production deeper than the mkt expected. It was centred around huge revisions to the HRW crop.

This'll likely have Aussie markets higher today across both new & old crop - which will be very welcome to growers!

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

📢 March ABS Pulse Exports🚢:

#lentils: 85k (⬇️94kt MoM). Record exports but Vic exports are incredibly slow at ~200kt so far. Lots of stock yet to come to market whereas SA is running on fumes.

#chickpeas: 27kt (⬇️265kt MoM). Program mostly done.

#lupins: 17kt(⬇️34kt MoM)

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

📣ABS March Exports 🚢:

#wheat 1.99Mt (⬇️116kt MoM). NSW exports down sharply. WA/SA accounted for ~81% of total vol.

#barley 1.35Mt (⬇️152kt MoM). Record season so far, record March🚀. Only one game in town - CHINA🇨🇳.

#canola 558kt (⬇️324kt MoM). Decent East Coast exports.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

Barley punches even higher in NSW/QLD🚀

BAR1 delivered into the Darling Downs is north of $440/t. NSW prices are also rising as consumers continue to bid on any stock coming to market.

VIC prices are rallying (~$320 port equiv), with SA prices a bit more stagnant.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

The great barley rally continues 📈.. well in NSW/QLD at least.

Delivered Downs barley is ~$430/t & the market is busy trying to calculate how close WA/SA supplies are to pricing a vessel to QLD. Southern markets are stronger on record export volumes & low grower selling.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

After solid March rainfall for those in southern cropping zones, April was not a good month. May has started much better, with some welcome falls over the weekend.

Unfortunately, much of NSW & QLD missed these latest rains, received nothing in April & remain desperate for rain

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

Crazy move in the May-26 MATIF Rapeseed Contract overnight... Up $180/t overnight! 😏

Before any Aussie growers get excited, the May-26 contract is in delivery & being squeezed. Our market will take no notice, instead reacting to what Aug-26 did, which was up a measly $7/t.

[Market Check @MarketCheck1]

While #barley is ripping higher in NSW/QLD, #wheat is not being left behind. Plenty of stock is now trading at >$400/t port equivalent in the north, with SFW1 delivered Darling Downs at $440-445.

Will we see imports from WA/SA in the next couple of months...?