Market Old Hand

Four decades in markets. Quality businesses, the rate cycle & what the tape confirms. Pre-market levels · Intraday notes · Post-close review.Sharing market thou

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

Energy’s the only group that actually showed up today 🔥

The rest of the tape is red. Oil isn’t. And the leaders aren’t the usual mega-cap drillers — they’re the refiners. $XLE is up about 1.3% as of early afternoon ET, and inside it the real movers are $MPC, $VLO, and $PSX.

Three names doing the work right now. Not advice. Just what’s working.

$MPC — the one ripping
Marathon Petroleum is up about 5% and it’s one of the strongest big holdings in $XLE. Refiners don’t just tag along with crude. They get paid on the crack spread: the gap between the oil they buy and the gasoline and diesel they sell. That spread is the whole trade. The stock’s already had a monster year, and it’s running ahead of a lot of targets. Big pop. Also the easiest one to chase.
$VLO — same trade, cleaner assets
Valero’s up about 4%. Same refining story, better plants. Gulf Coast kit can run heavier, sour crude, and when product markets are tight the margins get loud. Goldman has liked both $VLO and $MPC as refiners. Another name that’s already run hard. Better as a momentum tell than a hidden bargain.

$CVX — the one you can actually hold
Quieter today, up around 1%, but the balance sheet is the point. Less tangled up in Middle East disruptions. Hess gave them a stake in Guyana’s Stabroek block, the Permian is still growing, and Q2 adjusted profit hit about $12 billion — a multi-year high. Buybacks and the dividend are still on. If oil stays elevated, this one usually holds up better than a pure refiner when the mood flips.
Want more oil beta and less crack-spread risk? Swap $VLO for $EOG. It was up about 2.4% today, cheaper than the majors, and it’s a cleaner bet on the barrel itself.

One warning: if crude or those refining margins roll over, the refiners give it back first.
Not financial advice. Early-afternoon ET snapshot, prices move. Do your own homework.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@CheddarFlow Six straight down weeks for the banks. Last time that happened was 2008. Not saying it’s the same situation but the streak is notable.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@SRxTrades Stock selection first makes sense. No point nailing the entry if you’re in the wrong name. Strong sectors and leaders over random tickers.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@insiderwave Tech getting hit hard this week. QQQ down over 5% on the AI financing worries and sticky inflation. Not surprising with how crowded the trade got.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@donnelly_brent That chart is brutal. Boomers chilling at the top while everyone else is falling off. Design really is evil.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@CKCapitalxx Classic Jensen. Every time the AI names get hit he comes out and says it’s temporary. Sometimes it works, sometimes the market just keeps selling anyway.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@RedDogT3 Busy week ahead. TSLA and NFLX early, then META and the semis later. Should be interesting with how tech’s been trading.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

Refiners and the defensive names kept working. Under the surface it’s still a quiet bear for a lot of stocks. Classic split tape.

Easy AI trade is on pause. Stick with what’s actually getting bought.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

Tech got smoked this week. The rest of the tape didn’t.

Nasdaq’s worst week in months (~4.5% down). S&P off about 2%. Dow actually green. Money rotated hard out of AI and chips into healthcare, staples, and energy. Rates still near 5% — growth isn’t getting a free pass.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@cantonmeow KEEL really out here doing damage. Down another 9% today and somehow it still has people glued to the screen.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@TicTocTick Wild to think about. 22% in a single day. Today’s “big” down days feel like nothing compared to that.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@donnelly_brent Stocks fall, bonds rally, Fed pauses, stocks rally. The classic loop. Only problem is yields still stuck near 5% and tech’s already getting hit hard.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@JPATrades Mr. President please, the tech names are getting absolutely wrecked today. Need a miracle into the close.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@CKCapitalxx Yeah the 3-month view looks ugly, but zoom out further and it’s still up big from the spring lows. Classic chop.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

1,400 stocks are down 70%+ from their highs.A 70% drop needs a 233% gain just to get back to even. Most of these names are stuck in a multi-year hole while the indexes keep ripping.The quiet bear is real.

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

You’re not gonna believe this.

5,000 stocks are down 20%+ from their 52-week highs.

And it gets crazier…

Nearly 4,000 are down 40%+.

Think about what that actually means.

While the major indices have held together, underneath the surface thousands of stocks have already been living through their own bear markets.

The index looking fine while individual stocks are getting absolutely destroyed underneath it.

Some seriously messed up shit when you actually look under the hood.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@DeFiTracer Quiet bear market outside the indexes. 1,400 stocks down 70%+ from highs. A 70% drop needs a 233% gain just to get back to even. Most of these names aren’t recovering anytime soon.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@Danny_Crypton Quiet bear market outside the indexes. 1,400 stocks down 70%+ from highs. A 70% drop needs a 233% gain just to get back to even. Most of these names aren’t recovering anytime soon.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

@TheProfInvestor Quiet bear market outside the indexes. 1,400 stocks down 70%+ from highs. A 70% drop needs a 233% gain just to get back to even. Most of these names aren’t recovering anytime soon.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

Watching $OKE, $EQT, and $MUR in the energy tape. $OKE’s the steadier midstream with the yield, $EQT’s got the most gas torque (up the most), and $MUR’s the smaller oil-levered play. All green while energy’s leading.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

Energy was the only thing that showed up on the 2nd. From the post-low to the high since then:

$MPC +22%
$VLO +18%
$PSX +16%
$EOG +12%
$CVX +11%

The thesis held. When oil and geopolitics stay supportive, quality energy names keep working while the rest of the tape chops

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

Energy’s the only group that actually showed up today 🔥

The rest of the tape is red. Oil isn’t. And the leaders aren’t the usual mega-cap drillers — they’re the refiners. $XLE is up about 1.3% as of early afternoon ET, and inside it the real movers are $MPC, $VLO, and $PSX.

Three names doing the work right now. Not advice. Just what’s working.

$MPC — the one ripping
Marathon Petroleum is up about 5% and it’s one of the strongest big holdings in $XLE. Refiners don’t just tag along with crude. They get paid on the crack spread: the gap between the oil they buy and the gasoline and diesel they sell. That spread is the whole trade. The stock’s already had a monster year, and it’s running ahead of a lot of targets. Big pop. Also the easiest one to chase.
$VLO — same trade, cleaner assets
Valero’s up about 4%. Same refining story, better plants. Gulf Coast kit can run heavier, sour crude, and when product markets are tight the margins get loud. Goldman has liked both $VLO and $MPC as refiners. Another name that’s already run hard. Better as a momentum tell than a hidden bargain.

$CVX — the one you can actually hold
Quieter today, up around 1%, but the balance sheet is the point. Less tangled up in Middle East disruptions. Hess gave them a stake in Guyana’s Stabroek block, the Permian is still growing, and Q2 adjusted profit hit about $12 billion — a multi-year high. Buybacks and the dividend are still on. If oil stays elevated, this one usually holds up better than a pure refiner when the mood flips.
Want more oil beta and less crack-spread risk? Swap $VLO for $EOG. It was up about 2.4% today, cheaper than the majors, and it’s a cleaner bet on the barrel itself.

One warning: if crude or those refining margins roll over, the refiners give it back first.
Not financial advice. Early-afternoon ET snapshot, prices move. Do your own homework.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

Materials, consumer staples, energy, financials, and utilities are all ripping over 1%, while tech and communication services keep getting crushed. Semis (SOXX) are down another ~2% — this losing streak just won’t quit.

[Market Old Hand @MarketOldHand]

💥 Even an hour into the open and tech is getting straight-up abandoned! Cash is flooding into these 4 sectors…

The tape has completely flipped:
S&P basically flat, Dow up 0.4%, Nasdaq down more than 0.5%.