Markets360™

#Charts mostly. Strategist #Bonds #Stocks #FX #Commodities. Global #Macro. Nothing here should be construed as advice. Do your due diligence!

[Markets360™ @Markets360]

@ReformedBroker Yeah, but sometimes the charts just speak to me....

[Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ @FreightAlley]

The economy is shifting in real-time.

Reindustrialization is rewriting the economy. For the past few decades, imports were the primary driver of freight volume.

Over the past few months that has shifted where the center of the country is now the primary source of US freight volume.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Hello from Germany, where the auto crisis just deepened. BMW has issued a major profit warning, implying a profit drop of >60%. Its EBIT margin is now expected at just 1–3%; a shocking level for a premium automaker that once stood for double-digit profitability. This comes only a day after VW executives reportedly described their own company as facing an existential threat, according to Manager Magazin. BMW is now worth less <€40bn.

[Markets360™ @Markets360]

@pmarca

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

The number of ETFs that held SpaceX went from 4 to 40 to now 120 in a couple days (few billion total). These are all active ETFs choosing to buy, not indexes (they coming later). Here's a look at the list sorted by new buy, $JEPQ (the 2nd largest active ETF in world) at the top. Looks like a lot of JPM funds bought.

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

🚢Claims about Hormuz reopening are exactly why we built this:

If ships start moving through the Strait with AIS transponders on, you’ll see it in the index — updated every 30 minutes alongside Suez, Bab al-Mandeb and Panama.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

“At my direction, the United States Southern Command delivered a swift and lethal kinetic strike to successfully execute Niño Guerrero, the infamous leader of Tren De Aragua, one of the most bloodthirsty Terrorist Organizations on Planet Earth.” - President DONALD J. TRUMP 🇺🇸

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@iam_smx *trillioniare

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

You’ll notice there is no look-back celebration or remembrance of this or virtually any of the other great moral victories from that era. It’s all been memory holed, a will-o'-the-wisp dimming out in the far distance.

[Jeffrey Gundlach @TruthGundlach]

Say private credit fund X owns loan A marked at 100 &amp; private credit fund Y owns loan B marked at 100, but both X&amp;Y know A&amp;B are really worth 65. So X&amp;Y agree to trade “in and out of loans”. X buys B from Y &amp; Y buys A from X, both at a price of 100 &amp; say “See? NAV’s solid!”

[tom keene @tomkeene]

tweet of the day

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Passive S&P 500 funds could have to buy roughly 19% of public SpaceX shares within 6mo under fast-tracking framework (it would enter the index at the est 6th spot), Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 may buy another 5.5% within weeks of the IPO. Thrown in active MFs benchmarked to those indices and you get to HALF of SpaceX shares. Nice study from my colleague @rduboff

[Markets360™ @Markets360]

RT @M_McDonough: UK Political Volatility &amp; the 30Y Gilt Yield 📈

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Are you sitting down? Ok good. $DRAM and $ARKK took in the most cash of any ETFs yesterday.. And a 2x Sandisk ETF nabbed the 10th spot. Do with this information what you will.. @Todd_Sohn is at Costco rn loading up on canned goods and batteries.

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

🇬🇧Prediction markets are moving fast on the UK political crisis. @Kalshi now prices a 67% chance PM Keir Starmer is out by September.

The facts driving the market:
▪️ Health Sec Wes Streeting is preparing to resign and challenge for leadership.
▪️ Two Cabinet ministers have urged Starmer to set a departure timeline.
▪️ Three junior ministers have already quit.
▪️ UK 30-year bond yields touched 5.81%, the highest since 1998 (See chart).

Things are moving fast in Westminster. Track in real-time MOSP or LPS 10786.

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

🚢 History Through ECAN

With all the attention on the Strait of Hormuz right now, it's worth taking a look at another chokepoint — and what happened to shipping the last time one came under fire.

For most of 2020 through 2023, about 25 tankers and 50 cargo ships passed through the Red Sea's southern entrance every day. This is the route that feeds the Suez Canal — roughly 12% of global trade.

That ended in November 2023. After the Gaza war began, Yemen's Houthi rebels started firing missiles and drones at commercial ships passing through. They said they were targeting vessels with ties to Israel. In practice, they hit a lot of ships.

The breaking point was December 15, 2023, when a Maersk container ship was struck. Within days, every major container line — Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Evergreen — suspended their Red Sea routes. Shell stopped shipping oil through the area. Qatar paused LNG cargoes. By February 2024, more than half of Asia-to-Europe container traffic was sailing around the southern tip of Africa instead — adding about two weeks to every trip.

📉That's the cliff in the chart.

What's interesting is how markets reacted. Oil barely moved. Brent was around $81 a barrel in early November 2023 and was actually lower by mid-January 2024. The supply shock everyone expected never showed up. OPEC had plenty of spare capacity, China's demand was soft, and the Houthis mostly weren't going after oil tankers themselves.

Container shipping was a different story. The cost of moving a box from Shanghai to northern Europe more than quadrupled in eight weeks. Insurance for crossing the strait went up roughly tenfold. Egypt lost around $10 billion in Suez Canal revenue in 2024.

The bulk of the attacks happened in 2024. Things quieted down in early 2025 after a brief Gaza ceasefire, flared back up in July 2025 when the Houthis sank two Greek bulk carriers, and then stopped after the Gaza ceasefire took hold in October 2025. Maersk started running ships through the Red Sea again in January 2026.

Today, the chart still shows about 11 tankers and 18 cargo ships per day — 55 to 65% below pre-crisis levels. Insurance premiums never fully reset, carriers rebuilt their networks around the longer route, and the Iran war in February reignited the threats all over again.

[Ahmed Khalifa @_A_khalifa]

As a real Arab and Muslim
I don’t get why the hell Europeans
aren’t defending their own identity
culture, & way of life.

Why the hell are you letting some
immigrants change everything?
Why did you turn your countries
into a garbage dump for every loser
& terrorist from the Middle East?

Now even we can’t come as tourists
because of all the extremism and
violence.

Wake the fuck up and do something!

[Under Secretary of State Jacob S. Helberg @UnderSecE]

We are working with the Philippines to build a FORWARD DEPLOYED INDUSTRIAL BASE in Luzon — a peaceful platform designed to secure vital supply-chain inputs for American and aligned companies, built with a strong sovereign partner, iterated on as we learn.

Statecraft, at its best, is a product. American products don’t just compete. They enchant and delight. That is the edge this country has. And it’s the foundation of the State Department’s economic statecraft strategy.

Four thousand acres. Roughly one-third the size of Manhattan — the equivalent of everything from Times Square south to the very tip of the island. A hub for industrial cooperation, shared growth and economic security. It is the first of its kind. We are doing new things because we are in new times! 🇺🇸 🇵🇭

https://t.co/8Wv9putTGX

[Michael Dell 🇺🇸 @MichaelDell]

Without this global town square for free speech, a lot of important things never would’ve seen daylight.

Real-time information governments tried to bury. Scientific debate that was actively censored. Voices that would’ve stayed silenced forever.

Respect to @elonmusk for being the man in the arena when it actually counted. 🫡🙏

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

Overheard in Silicon Valley: "UBI is for farm animals."

[Markets360™ @Markets360]

Absolute legend.

Mark Mobius will be missed.