Markets & Manners

Futures positioning data across 31 markets | COT, z-scores, seasonal win rates, historical analogs

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

5 weeks out. Copper (HG) up 6.2% from that print.

Commercials are even more pinned short (0.2nd all-time percentile, 1-year z-score -1.80σ), specs longer at the 94th.

The setup deepened, not unwound.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

Copper swap dealers just hit z-score +2.47 (1yr). 99.2nd percentile on the 26-week index.

On the other side: commercials at the 1.5th percentile, 26-week index at 0%. That is the floor.

3 analog triggers are firing. Every single one points the same direction.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

Full positioning, seasonals, analog forward paths, and price momentum for $ZC:

https://t.co/9j1sNeKiNH

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$ZC (Corn) Managed Money

Net position: -69,691 contracts (-23,264)
1-year z-score: -0.43σ (-0.17)
3-year z-score: -0.07σ (-0.13)
All-time percentile: 25.4 (-4.0)
26-week index: 2.8 (-5.5)

1-week change of -23,264 contracts is the standout move; cohort trimmed risk on the week.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$ZC Swap Dealers

Net position: +369,141 contracts (-2,458)
1-year z-score: +2.04σ (-0.19)
3-year z-score: +2.92σ (-0.17)
All-time percentile: 90.8 (-0.3)
26-week index: 96.7 (-1.7)

Net position at the 90.8 all-time percentile, near the top of the historical range.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

Full positioning, seasonals, analog forward paths, and price momentum for $6S:

https://t.co/7WvudY4qSY

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$6S (Swiss Franc) Leveraged Money

Net position: -14,846 contracts (-1,748)
1-year z-score: -3.09σ (-0.10)
3-year z-score: -1.62σ (-0.25)
All-time percentile: 13.6 (-3.2)
26-week index: 0.0 (+0.0)

1-year z-score at -3.09σ marks a stretched short on the 1-year window.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$6S Asset Managers

Net position: -39,769 contracts (-1,404)
1-year z-score: +0.35σ (-0.20)
3-year z-score: -0.85σ (-0.09)
All-time percentile: 2.8 (-0.7)
26-week index: 68.7 (-6.1)

Net position at the 2.8 all-time percentile, near the bottom of the historical range.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

Full positioning, seasonals, analog forward paths, and price momentum for $6N:

https://t.co/blas91Qil7

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$6N (New Zealand Dollar) Leveraged Money

Net position: -23,314 contracts (-860)
1-year z-score: -1.71σ (-0.03)
3-year z-score: -2.22σ (-0.04)
All-time percentile: 0.9 (-0.1)
26-week index: 19.0 (-3.6)

Net position sits at the 0.9 all-time percentile, against the lower edge of the historical range.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$6N Asset Managers

Net position: -50,479 contracts (-8,658)
1-year z-score: -0.98σ (-0.39)
3-year z-score: -1.62σ (-0.47)
All-time percentile: 0.9 (-1.2)
26-week index: 5.4 (-28.9)

Net position sits at the 0.9 all-time percentile, against the lower edge of the historical range.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

Full positioning, seasonals, analog forward paths, and price momentum for $6J:

https://t.co/ucfML471jE

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$6J (Japanese Yen) Leveraged Money

Net position: -115,033 contracts (-2,941)
1-year z-score: -1.92σ (-0.09)
3-year z-score: -1.93σ (-0.05)
All-time percentile: 2.3 (-0.6)
26-week index: 0.0 (-3.4)

Net position at the 2.3 all-time percentile, near the bottom of the historical range.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$6J Asset Managers

Net position: -75,525 contracts (+4,507)
1-year z-score: -2.22σ (+0.25)
3-year z-score: -1.42σ (+0.09)
All-time percentile: 1.4 (+0.8)
26-week index: 3.3 (+3.3)

Net position at the 1.4 all-time percentile, near the bottom of the historical range.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

Full positioning, seasonals, analog forward paths, and price momentum for $6E:

https://t.co/sBRfvPe96s

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$6E (Euro FX) Leveraged Money

Net position: -67,504 contracts (-27,132)
1-year z-score: -2.74σ (-1.03)
3-year z-score: -2.24σ (-1.14)
All-time percentile: 24.2 (-12.0)
26-week index: 0.0 (-18.4)

1-year z-score at -2.74σ marks a stretched short on the 1-year window.

[Markets & Manners @MarketsManners]

$6E Asset Managers

Net position: +283,628 contracts (-12,874)
1-year z-score: -1.82σ (-0.18)
3-year z-score: -0.62σ (-0.17)
All-time percentile: 79.2 (-2.3)
26-week index: 6.0 (-7.9)

1-year z-score at -1.82σ runs near the stretched end of the 1-year window on the short side.