Ranjit Goswami

Markets - local (Nifty, BN, USDINR) & global ($spx, $dxy, $eem). Learning/earning /losing? Making sense of nonsense? Unregistered (SEBI/others). Options (CE/PE)

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Jobs are scarce. More so dignified, lifelong jobs.

Quality education is scarce. Costly too. Mostly leads to a mediocre, compromised life.

Trading gives you freedom. Real life education too.

Very few make it, most are losers (me too). Worth a shot...as early as possible.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

"The one piece that just doesn't (didn't) fit. The USDCNY (quarter). Nobody would have thought to dump that yuan now (quarter). Not even me."

And the $dxy now operates as a cartel of currencies of dollar and its allies. To give it strength.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

#USDINR caught in US-China tension over Pelosi visit to China.

CNY under huge pressure. Bit unexpected.

But USDJPY shows no stress.

Would be interesting to see in case no untoward incident happens.

$spx falls premarket due to same geopolitical risk.

Still carrying #USDINR PE

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

And FIIs too have turned from aggressive sellers to more neutral/buyers in the last three days.

Net long in F&O y'day itself Rs. 10k crores+.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

$Dxy fell from 109+ to 106/107.

USTY fell from 3.49 to 2.9

Oil fell from 120+ to 105.

But #USDINR shows no recovery.

Samy for CNY/EM currencies.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Decided to come up with a market report blog.

https://t.co/mfzNhPd7tq

Hope to continue daily/weekly.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Not taking any trade till FOMC over this week.

Have been too tiring and volatile.

#Nifty
#Banknifty
#USDINR
#MCX

#Crypto - not sure.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

If #USDINR fails to close today's expiry below 79.75, closing hrs of y'day or overnight trade would mean that bear traps continue.

No end of bullish/elevated run of #USDINR as of now.

Can it see <75, <70 ever?

Based on record of @RBI under @DasShaktikanta - looks unlikely.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Trade plan for 4th July'22:

Hoping a gap up open. Will buy Nifty 15600-800 pe, depending on opening and first few minutes price action.

#Nifty
#BaniNifty
#usdinr

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

'During the past 13 years, the highest PE of ONGC was 252.61. The lowest was 3.61. And the median was 6.69.'

Now it is 3.8

https://t.co/XSGDAIRD0R

Rather than rerating, ONGC got derated.

It's refining capacity is nearly same as RIl (ok, not 100% owned). More petrol pumps.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Made huge losses over past few months on USDINR pe, and on ONGC ce.

Both have been a puzzle.

ONGC is -ve over last 6 months. Now that needs some serious explanation.

And #USDINR simply refuses to come down... below 78. Oil then was $65 or so, gas price $2.9/mmBTU to now $6.1.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

The difference between Brent & WTI crude oil have widened significantly.

Any reason?

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

#USDINR is not reacting/moving to market movement (#Nifty /#banknifty ). Or to crude oil prices.

But it's reacting to more of a #USDCNY

And #USDCNY not following USD/RUB.

#eem

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Not sure...but last many weeks, on expiry days, #USDINR never gave money on PE.

Did not want to be fooled again

@RBI

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Recent tangible shift in India's foreign policy, away from the US/Western influence, would it affect markets?

#Nifty
#Banknifty
#UsdInr
#FiiFlow

https://t.co/qQcta8xdfe

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

OPEC+ meet today..

Speculation rife that Saudi to pump more.

Let's see..

#Oil

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

ONGC has tremendously underperformed both Oil India in domestic exchanges, and global peers everywhere else.

Reason attributed could be falling production of oil and gas.

The underperformance over last month is anywhere between 20-40%.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

ONGC is quoting at levels of Oct-Nov 2021 or lower. Crude oil was around $80/brl back then.

ONGC would undeniably qualify as the lowest priced (P/E<4) oil-gas major globally.

Others all quoting near yearly high and ath. Even where windfall tax implemented.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

The administered gas price hike from April'22 has not impacted the market price of ONGC at all.

From number two in profit, ONGC may move to no 1 in profit in FY 23 in India.

It had held that position for years earlier.

#Nifty
#Oil
#banknifty
#USDINR

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Long-short fund in crypto space works well than pure directional bet, due to huge volatility.

[Ranjit Goswami @MarketsNonSense]

Why predicting recessions are so difficult?

https://t.co/Zk5Rrdhwxt

(And is Krugman still the economic God?). He is no longer that omnipresent NYT columnist anymore, though.