Marlex Capital

focuses on early stage investments to elevate emerging tech and digital assets.

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

@rektcapital The dominance of stablecoins (USDT+USDC) is at a critical resistance level. This increases the likelihood that BTC will see a further leg up.

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

ALERT: The Ultimate Liquidity Signal - The 8.8% Line

Ignore the noise. The entire market cycle is currently hinging on one metric: USDT + USDC Dominance.
We are testing a critical historical pivot (~8.8%).

The Binary Setup:
• Bull Case: A weekly close below this line confirms capital deployment. This signals the local bottom is in = Next leg up.
• Bear Case: A close above this line signals a return to Risk Off (similar to the 2022-2023 range).

Why it matters:
Chart 2 shows the perfect inverse correlation.
• Stablecoin Dom Up = BTC Down.
• Stablecoin Dom Down = BTC Up.

We are watching for the breakdown

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #USDT #USDC

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

ALERT: Macro Divergence USDJPY & JGB

The bond market is screaming. The currency market is sleeping.

1. The JGB Crash
Japanese Government Bonds are in freefall.
•2Y Yield >1.0% (17-Year High).
•10Y Yield ~1.88%.
Curve Status: Yields are structurally higher than 2015 levels across the board.

2. The Anomalous Divergence
Textbook Theory: JPY Yields UP = USDJPY DOWN
Reality: USDJPY is sticky at ~155.
The Observation: Someone is wrong.

•If Bonds are right = USDJPY is massively overvalued.
•If FX is right = BOJ is trapped.

Who's right, the Bonds or the FX market, what's your take?
#USDJPY #forex #Trading #Finance #BOJ

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

1. The Dollar Dilemma: Strengthening into the Cut?
Against consensus, $DXY is bidding. The Stablecoin Act (GENIUS Act) is the hidden driver:
• Mandated Treasury backing = Structural US Debt demand.
• This reinforces the Dollar's floor, even as yields drop.

Key Level: Watching 100. If we hold above, the "Dollar Demise" narrative is dead for now.

2. Dec Cut: The Market is Front-Running
Fed Funds Futures just repriced aggressively.
• Current Odds: 87% for a December Cut.
• This is a massive pump from 2 weeks ago (~40%).

The Risk: If the Fed balks or guides hawkishly = Massive sell-off into year-end to unwind this leverage.

3. The Binary Event: Ukraine/Russia
• Peace: Instant Risk-On repricing (Commodities crash, Equities/Crypto fly).
• Escalation: DXY safe-haven bid returns.

Our View:
We are sitting on a powder keg of conflicting signals.
• Bull Case: Fed delivers + Peace Talks progress.
• Bear Case: DXY > 100 + Powell fights back.

We will remain cautious for now and closely monitor the DXY and the next FED meeting.

#BTC #Crypto #FED

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

#BTC

The Alt OI > BTC OI signal triggered on Sep 13 2025

Historical leverage flushes following this signal:
• Mar 3 2024: -38.0%
• Nov 30 '2024: -38.2%
• Current: -36.1%

We are close to the structural depth of the last two local bottoms.

We are monitoring this zone for a reversal.

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

Our View:

We respect the $DXY trend, but paying 2022-level panic premiums often marks a sentiment floor.

We are not "all in," but the asymmetry is heavily skewed for a reversion.

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

Macro Note: Contextualizing the $BTC Panic

We are navigating extreme dislocation.
Certainty is low, but hedging costs are historic.

1. Headwind: Dollar Strength
$DXY > 100.3 signals tightening.
If $DXY sustains >100.5, risk assets face pressure.

We are watching closely🧵👇

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

4. Historical Context

We are approaching "Black Swan" pricing.
• COVID (Mar '20): Skew ~30%
• FTX (Nov '22): Skew -20% to -25%
• Today: -18%

The market is pricing in an FTX-level failure event, despite no visible systemic breakage.

Pure fear.

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

What to watch:

• August jobs report (confirms trend?)
• SOFR futures below 3% (recession pricing)
• Fed's emergency response threshold

The labor market narrative just shifted.
Position accordingly.

/End 🧵

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

ALERT: The jobs market just had its biggest revision outside the pandemic era

May: 139K → 19K (-120K)
June: 147K → 14K (-133K)

That's -253K jobs that never existed. Markets are repricing everything.

🧵 Thread on what this means for Fed policy→
#Fed #Employment #BTC

[Marlex Capital @MarlexCapital]

For risk assets, this setup is bullish:

• Lower rates = higher asset prices
• Dollar carry trades unwinding
• Flight to scarce assets (crypto, tech)

Classic Fed pivot playbook starting to unfold.

[Hyperdrive @hyperdrivedefi]

Today we launch Hyperdrive — the stablecoin money market built for Hyperliquid, and the foundational layer for making everything on HyperCore liquid.

This is our story:

[Capx AI @0xCapx]

Today we’re thrilled to announce that we have raised $3.14M, led by @ManifoldTrading and @luganodes to build the leading blockchain for building, owning and trading of AI Agent apps.