Avihu Marom

Intelligence and risk advisor. I turn noise into decision-grade reads on risks that move balance sheets. No Theatre, my newsletter. Co-owner & CIO, RiskMind.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

When a diligence product should tell you not to buy: https://t.co/rekOFdaQzX

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

A forensic report reads filed accounts. If your subject files nothing public, a US private company or an individual, there is nothing to read, and an honest analyst tells you that before any work begins. A product that cannot say when it does not apply is theatre.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

How enhanced due diligence reads control rather than registered ownership: https://t.co/Pl5lc6IrWC

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

On 20 July an executive order directed defence contractors to map supply chains to the raw material and vet every supplier for financial distress and for foreign control, exercised or not. Every tier. The rules are not written yet. The work takes longer than the notice.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

https://t.co/2dKy06DEYi

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

On 24 April I locked a war game on the US-Iran standoff. 17 iterations, never touched since. It called the blockade, the decapitation strike at 0 of 17, and limbo 17 of 17. It missed the temperature. A model leaves a file you can grade. A take leaves nothing.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

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[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

1/ On Monday they were counterparties. By Tuesday they were blocked property. On 14 July the US Treasury named more than fifty people, companies and ships in one network.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

4/ A sanctions list is a lagging indicator. It tells you who got caught, not who you are dealing with. Treasury has now named more than two hundred entities under one man's patronage across three actions since July 2025. The network did not grow that fast. The list caught up.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

https://t.co/Pl5lc6IrWC

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

1/ Most due diligence tells you if someone is clean. Not if they are strong. A subject can pass every screen and still be running out of road. Clean is not safe.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

4/ It is only as good as the accounts behind it. If your subject files nothing public, I tell you before any report work begins, and you are never charged for a report I cannot produce. No opinion built on nothing.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

https://t.co/BBJmzNcRGr

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

On Friday ownership goes on the record. 10 July is the EU deadline for beneficial-ownership registers. They show the names on the paperwork. They do not show who controls the company. A register tells you what was declared. Diligence tells you what was arranged.

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

https://t.co/NqnGOfbCHr

[Avihu Marom @MaromAvihu]

I simulated the US-Iran war 17 times before the deal. It named the trigger: a Panama or Greek tanker hit in the Strait, pulling CENTCOM in. This week the Kiku was hit. CENTCOM struck twice. Then both sides went back to the table. Not peace. Not collapse. Violent limbo.