Rick Marriner

Dad, friend, curious duck & gently aged mariner... views are my own. Retweets are not necessarily endorsement. ~RM

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

Intelligence is the most powerful gradient-exploitation tool evolution has ever produced.

Industry releases stored sunlight.
Markets accelerate allocation.
Computation accelerates information flow.

AI accelerates traders as dissipations engines of astonishing sophistication.

[Bob McNally @Bob_McNally]

Thank you @JasonBordoff for the high praise and for your steadfast encouragement!

[Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff]

Thanks @ShanuMathew93 for capturing our exchange in one place for people! Appreciate your following it and this thoughtful summary.

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@DJBentley #Lasagna #mmmmm

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@gjgolding @Bob_McNally @IEA @JasonBordoff Agreed. A civil debate. There is a phrase in America called, “Agency Capture”. And while that is related to a public agency captured by an industry, I wondered during this IEA debate if there is a “opposite of agency capture” to be considered.

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

#leadership among #thoughtleaders in #energy

[Bob McNally @Bob_McNally]

Thanks a lot @JasonBordoff ,

Your points are as usual fair, astute and balanced. I too see a lot more agreement than disagreement. And I appreciate the thoughtful and largely civil commentary our discussion has generated among our fellow travelers.

I agree COVID and other factors threw a big monkey wrench into comparisons of recent demand forecasts. Looking forward, hopefully we’ll enjoy a few years of solid, black-swan-free economic growth to test the consensus expectation, fostered in no small part by @IEA’s recent choices on which demand scenarios to omit and which to continue publishing, that oil demand is decoupling sharply enough from economic activity due to automobile fuel efficiency regulations and EV penetration that it will peak roughly six years from now. We agree that IEA forecasts matter, and big farms are being bet on that one.

I also agree that your approach to comparing IEA CPS and STEPS scenarios more precisely illustrates the magnitude of the differences between them as they evolved in recent years. My chart is intended to illustrate the abrupt, portentous and less-than-magnificently-justified-and-communicated message shift that non-energy experts heard from the influential IEA starting in 2020 about the timing of peak oil and gas demand and the implied appropriateness for continued investment.

Finally, like you, I’m traveling and will join many of our professional colleagues at @IEF_Dialogue tomorrow in Riyadh where demand outlooks will feature (pop over if you’re still in the neighborhood?)

Otherwise, let’s iron out the few remaining wrinkles and set the world straight on April 16 in NY when we, our @ColumbiaUEnergy colleagues (comprising many veteran and accomplished former @IEA officials as you noted) and diverse, distinguished guests will gather for the Columbia Global Energy Summit.

Best regards,
Bob

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@Big_Orrin Two more years since this discussion. My world contracts further! Oh no!

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@StrategicWizard Indeed, as part of an ongoing Digital Transformation, we are testing out a generative AI model to help us in processing oil tanker demurrage, claims and payables. This is necessary work, but it soaks up time and effort. This is our most recent endeavor, but more will follow!

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

Adventure complete, Either I've reached the expected Extract Point, or the current Latitude & Longitude is as far as I can and I'll need Extraction here! | Find me with inReach➜https://t.co/peJNT6Krbg

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

Thanks to Sam Harris’ 2010 book “The Moral Landscape”, I take inspiration for my chapter on Decision Making in Uncertain Times, part of a larger work on Physical Oil Trading as seen from the front lines. How the brain reacts to “expected uncertainty” vs “unexpected uncertainty”.

[Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff]

I’ve benefited so much from my friend @Bob_McNally’s deep expertise, incl his exceptional @ColumbiaUEnergy book. One of the things I love about our friendship is the ability to occasionally & respectfully disagree. I have a different take on @IEA here:

https://t.co/hHdX0MVoFK

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@JasonBordoff @Bob_McNally @ColumbiaUEnergy @IEA +1 for civil discourse and professional disagreements. I could not hold two people in higher regard on the topic of energy. I’ll be following this discussion with interest.

[Bob McNally @Bob_McNally]

Welcome aboard, Michael and John! As seasoned sales executives, we're excited to have you on board to support and propel our growing energy market, policy, and geopolitical research and advisory business.

@RapidanEnergy Welcomes Michael Muhlbach and John Renfro to Executive Sales Team https://t.co/SeUzTc6AKc

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@doueck_lynne @metsjetsnetsnj @OccupyDemocrats

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@keaneli Cult is a bit of an older word, I think I’ve heard the new phrase is, “smaller than usual organized religions.”

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@keaneli “E-Expert” has so many e’s! You have to go with that.

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@michaelianblack Isn’t there peace in anonymity?

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@keaneli Done. 😜🏴‍☠️

[Rick Marriner @Marriners]

@Big_Orrin Orwell meets Burgess