Nigel Marriott

Independent statistician using data to understand our world & to predict the future. Currently focused on pay gaps, diversity, elections, forecasting, surveys.

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

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[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

The underlying anti-establishment trend is why I say LAB (& CON) ceiling is 26%.

Squeezing insurgents within blocs is realistically their best option.

But why 26% & not 25%?

Because 26% is one of the 4 cursed ratios of British politics.

See https://t.co/MXwZgC1p26

7/7

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

It's easier to see what Patrick's talking about here if you look at vote intention changes over the last 5 years in 6 month steps.

When CON vote collapsed in 2022, most of these voters shifted intentions to LAB.

It was never solid & they were the first to desert LAB...

1/7

[Patrick English @PME_Politics]

Fairly happy with my articulation here of a theory put down on paper by @JamesKanag which we are now seeing play out in polling and in election results.

Labour are losing voters to Reform, no doubt. But they are losing far more ‘within their bloc’ to Greens, Lib Dems, Plaid, etc

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

...but the effect dissipated in 2024.

This is clearer if I extrapolate the lines fitting GE2010 & GE2015 results to 2026 & offset these lines to fit GE17, GE19 & GE24.

But for Brexit, 2026 polling is just a continuation of GE10>GE15 trends which is quite astonishing to me!

6/7

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

Strongly recommend a read.

I probably knew up to 40 of the 50 facts Iain lists but I am a statistician whose work and blogs often covers these stats.

How many did you know?

[Iain Mansfield @IGMansfield]

Do you hear a new Government announcement and wonder, 'Is that a lot?'

Enjoy the news but get frustrated when things are presented out of context?

Here are 50 facts to help put things in perspective.

https://t.co/kpcKU5wqDt

[Iain Mansfield @IGMansfield]

Do you hear a new Government announcement and wonder, 'Is that a lot?'

Enjoy the news but get frustrated when things are presented out of context?

Here are 50 facts to help put things in perspective.

https://t.co/kpcKU5wqDt

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

Financial accounts have always been focused on current year vs previous year, a clear legacy of pre-computer days?

Why don't more people look at longer term trends? It's not difficult as this excellent analysis of the SNP's finances shows.

[Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland]

If you're not boilingly angry after reading this, read it again, because you definitely missed something. https://t.co/xSi1Dqe2hF

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

@Aussie242486989 @kevinbonham @HendrikGout I don't think you can rely on Australian exceptionalism, the world is much more connected these days.

Here's UK polling since 2010. Green rise since GE24 was gradual at first & then surged when Polanski became leader last year.

Is there an Australian Polanski waiting in wings?

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

@Aussie242486989 @kevinbonham @HendrikGout I note that Australia doesn't appear to have an equivalent to the Liberal Democrats (UK) or Free Democrats (Germany).

So yes maybe a Teal party could emerge to fill that spot.

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

@Aussie242486989 @kevinbonham @HendrikGout I don't understand what you mean by maturity here. By the same token, Greens are also mature in the UK but their recent gains have come from being radical.

The defining trend in politics worldwide is loss of trust in establishment parties and rise for insurgent parties.

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

@Aussie242486989 @kevinbonham @HendrikGout See my 2nd post following my 1st post but looking at what is happening in Europe, I think ONP will struggle to get beyond low 30s.

I can see ALP dropping to low 20s like LNP and I suspect the Greens will soon see a rise in the polls to high teens as a reaction to ALP.

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

@Aussie242486989 @kevinbonham @HendrikGout If I compare Australian trends with 5 nations in Europe, I expect LNP+ALP duopoly to bottom out at ~40%.

I'd be surprised if ONP go over 33% which means ~5% would go elsewhere, probably to the Greens to take them over 15%.

Background to chart here https://t.co/5ULPzm1ZD9

2/2

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

@Aussie242486989 @kevinbonham @HendrikGout The trend is clear like it was for the Voice 6 months before the vote.

ONP on track to overtake ALP on average.

Last 3 polls show ONP leading or level with ALP.

ALP+LNP duopoly now at 50% & trending down.

Chart from wiki here - https://t.co/isyg7Au7Ie

1/2

[Jonny Cooper @JRCooper26]

James Milner retiring means 2026-27 will be the first English top-flight season since 1956-57 that will not feature a single player who played under Sir Bobby Robson.

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

@andrew_lilico Where else will the cash for investment (inside or outside the entity generating the profit) come from?

[Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico]

Brexit occurred in 2020, we left the Single Market in 2021, & the EURef was in 2016. If you estimate Brexit impacts from 2020/21 I'm going to want to know how you disentangle them from the impacts of Covid & energy shocks.+

[Nigel Marriott @MarriottNigel]

@staylorish So in other words, the Peter Murrell story is Scotland's equivalent to Hunter Biden's laptop?