_Deffender_

The Full #BTC Market Report: Start of a Bear Market or Are We Still Bullish? This report covers: • M2 Money Supply and Its REAL Impact on Bitcoin • Market Strategy / What Everyone Is Getting Wrong • Clarification on two bearish scenarios (Black Swan) 1. M2 Money Supply: The Most Misunderstood Signal: Let’s begin with what matters most: liquidity. This is an important message for those celebrating the rise in M2 Money Supply without understanding the significance of timing. M2 has one of the strongest historical correlations with Bitcoin. In comparison, stock markets typically take around six months to respond to M2 expansion. Bitcoin tends to react sooner, but not instantly. Just because money printing has resumed does not mean markets must immediately go up. That is a critical misconception. You must also consider the macro context. Is the M2 expansion contributing to inflation expectations? How does this influence future FOMC decisions? Official data suggests inflation is declining, but the reality looks different and we all know that OPEC plays a big role as well. The market does not currently expect a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, Trump is pressuring the Fed for immediate rate cuts and is threatening additional tariffs. We have a rising M2, but ask yourself since when is it starting? When was it priced in, and have some big players see this coming as well? Something I am very proud about as truly everyone, 98% of the entire market disagreed with me at that point. In July 2024 I said that I am expecting a 50bps cut, which was anticipated by only 2% of the entire market. I said once we see 50bps its very bullish for the markets and it opens the doors for the M2 to rise. Now SINCE Februar 2025 the M2 started to print and my Prediction is proven right. The M2 increased since then, and the markets even moved heavily up before the M2. I want to remind you how bearish all of X was, including 99% of all crypto accounts that told you to sell everything at 50k once we see the 50bps. Today they act as if they have been right. What a shame, and just another masterpiece from my end. The same people that have been bearish at the 50bps are now full force bullish, this time they will be lagging behind as well. The big players understood, and we priced in the M2 as well. This is a very important point before arguing about the M2! There are two key points to make it very easy to understand: The moment you understood that 50bps in Septmeber 2024 (50k BTC) was VERY BULLISH, you start to buy like crazy because you expect the M2 to rise, this event is called in "PRICING IN". The second point is ONCE and SINCE the M2 started to print in February we have seen the start of shift in the market, while retails now believe the printing happens, the big players saw it coming. How else do you explain the huge rallye from Septenber to February ? Or do you remember those words from 99% of the "Experts", when they said that 50bps means something is broken? CLOWNS. While M2 is rising, Bitcoin’s reaction will take time. I expect the bull trend to resume around May or June. Until then, anticipate sideways movement and short-term bearish pressure. The same bullish clowns today will turn into bears in May or June. Mark my words. 2. Mid-Term Strategy and Market Sentiment: Thank you to everyone who sent kind messages. Those who followed my short setup around the 87 to 88k region during the FOMC made solid gains again. As stated in my report one month ago, the weekly EMA50, which I called the Golden Line in the chart, is a key level. Since speaking about the importance of EMA50, you can see many accounts on X using now the same chart by telling you how Bullish the market is. Bitcoin respected it and bounced right at the golden line at 76k. From that point, I anticipated a move to 87 to 88k and suggested preparing short positions. Yesterday, we reached the 87.4k region and several short orders were triggered. Congratulations to those who followed through. The yellow-marked zone is still valid as a short area. My next target is 70 to 74k, which lies below the Golden Line. This brings us to the critical question: Will Bitcoin bounce from this zone or break down further? If we see only a wick into 70 to 74k and a strong daily close above the golden line, I will take profits from shorts and begin entering long positions. If we see a full daily close below this region, I expect a deeper move downward. To summarize: • Short positions remain active in the yellow zone • Short Profit-taking target is set at 70 to 74k • Long orders are positioned in the 70 to 74k region • Decision depends on how price behaves on the daily or weekly close, below or above the golden line. I will give a clear update on that, we need to study the move, in order to tell exactly whats next once we hit 70-74k. Do not expect this move to play out immediately. Markets do not operate on tweets. We could see a drop to 82k today, a rebound to 86k tomorrow, then another test of 88k. It does not change the bigger picture. The area of 70 to 74k remains my focus for accumulation. At that zone, I plan to deploy 70 to 80 percent of available capital. That could change. If conditions shift, I may tell you to reduce that to 20% percent and redirect focus to the 50k to 60k region. It all depends on the market, the timing, and BTC behaivour in the following events. Stay adaptable. It can be bad, or worse for bulls. We only need to figure it out at 70-74k region. Of course I will give you a new update once we hit those targets. Invalidation of my shorts would be with weekly close above 100k region. I doubt to see this happen anytime soon. I invite you to join the DrProfit premium membership, only for $59/ month. You can try it out and cancel whenever you want. Join here: https://t.co/TvHxOtJJRL 3. Long-Term Outlook I continue to expect the bull run to resume in May or June, with upside targets of 120 to 140k. Until then, I am holding mostly cash and focusing on expanding my short positions from 90k and 87k most recently. This is a mid-timeframe strategy and should be viewed accordingly. I will not repeat this message endlessly. You are welcome to revisit this report as many times as needed. Everything is clearly laid out. My analysis is not based on mixed signals. I provide one directional bias at a time. Clear and consistent. Let the market come to us. Stay focused. Stay patient. Execute with discipline. Soon I will drop a full bearish report about the Stock Market, especially covering NVIDIA and give you very deep insight on Retail Market sentiment and how most of people that are bullish now, will end up as exit liquidity. 4. Clarification on two bearish scenarios: My friends, you need to understand a very important fact when trading, investing. Let me clarify in a very easy way, In my theory it can go down, or very down. Down means my target of 70-74k. Once we reach this target we can tell if its the bottom or if we expect even lower targets, there are two bearish scenarios here, one 70-74k and a Black Swan scenario with targets towards 50k region. While I am more than confident that we are going to see 70-74k, the "Black Swan" event can happen as well in this time frame. So you should prepare for the mid bleed bearish event, and the max pain bearish events. More importantly its, how are you positioned ? In my case I sold mainly everything at 90k, taking profits from investments taken since 16k. Now I am waiting with cash to buy either the bigger correction till 70-74k or the big crash towards 50k region. Wait for further updates once we hit my mentioned target. If you look for a trading exchange with leverage I can recommend BloFin, its easy to use, no KYC required as well: https://t.co/BfOK8FYGfj

DrProfitCrypto's tweet photo. The Full #BTC Market Report:

Start of a Bear Market or Are We Still Bullish?

This report covers:

• M2 Money Supply and Its REAL Impact on Bitcoin
• Market Strategy / What Everyone Is Getting Wrong
• Clarification on two bearish scenarios (Black Swan)

1. M2 Money Supply: The Most Misunderstood Signal:

Let’s begin with what matters most: liquidity.
This is an important message for those celebrating the rise in M2 Money Supply without understanding the significance of timing. M2 has one of the strongest historical correlations with Bitcoin. In comparison, stock markets typically take around six months to respond to M2 expansion. Bitcoin tends to react sooner, but not instantly. Just because money printing has resumed does not mean markets must immediately go up. That is a critical misconception. You must also consider the macro context. Is the M2 expansion contributing to inflation expectations? How does this influence future FOMC decisions? Official data suggests inflation is declining, but the reality looks different and we all know that OPEC plays a big role as well. The market does not currently expect a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, Trump is pressuring the Fed for immediate rate cuts and is threatening additional tariffs. We have a rising M2, but ask yourself since when is it starting? When was it priced in, and have some big players see this coming as well? Something I am very proud about as truly everyone, 98% of the entire market disagreed with me at that point. In July 2024 I said that I am expecting a 50bps cut, which was anticipated by only 2% of the entire market. I said once we see 50bps its very bullish for the markets and it opens the doors for the M2 to rise. Now SINCE Februar 2025 the M2 started to print and my Prediction is proven right. The M2 increased since then, and the markets even moved heavily up before the M2. I want to remind you how bearish all of X was, including 99% of all crypto accounts that told you to sell everything at 50k once we see the 50bps. Today they act as if they have been right. What a shame, and just another masterpiece from my end. The same people that have been bearish at the 50bps are now full force bullish, this time they will be lagging behind as well. The big players understood, and we priced in the M2 as well. This is a very important point before arguing about the M2! There are two key points to make it very easy to understand: The moment you understood that 50bps in Septmeber 2024 (50k BTC) was VERY BULLISH, you start to buy like crazy because you expect the M2 to rise, this event is called in "PRICING IN". The second point is ONCE and SINCE the M2 started to print in February we have seen the start of shift in the market, while retails now believe the printing happens, the big players saw it coming. How else do you explain the huge rallye from Septenber to February ? Or do you remember those words from 99% of the "Experts", when they said that 50bps means something is broken? CLOWNS. While M2 is rising, Bitcoin’s reaction will take time. I expect the bull trend to resume around May or June. Until then, anticipate sideways movement and short-term bearish pressure. The same bullish clowns today will turn into bears in May or June. Mark my words.

2. Mid-Term Strategy and Market Sentiment:

Thank you to everyone who sent kind messages. Those who followed my short setup around the 87 to 88k region during the FOMC made solid gains again.
As stated in my report one month ago, the weekly EMA50, which I called the Golden Line in the chart, is a key level. Since speaking about the importance of EMA50, you can see many accounts on X using now the same chart by telling you how Bullish the market is. Bitcoin respected it and bounced right at the golden line at 76k. From that point, I anticipated a move to 87 to 88k and suggested preparing short positions. Yesterday, we reached the 87.4k region and several short orders were triggered. Congratulations to those who followed through. The yellow-marked zone is still valid as a short area. My next target is 70 to 74k, which lies below the Golden Line. This brings us to the critical question: Will Bitcoin bounce from this zone or break down further?

If we see only a wick into 70 to 74k and a strong daily close above the golden line, I will take profits from shorts and begin entering long positions. If we see a full daily close below this region, I expect a deeper move downward. To summarize:

• Short positions remain active in the yellow zone
• Short Profit-taking target is set at 70 to 74k
• Long orders are positioned in the 70 to 74k region
• Decision depends on how price behaves on the daily or weekly close, below or above the golden line.

I will give a clear update on that, we need to study the move, in order to tell exactly whats next once we hit 70-74k. Do not expect this move to play out immediately. Markets do not operate on tweets. We could see a drop to 82k today, a rebound to 86k tomorrow, then another test of 88k. It does not change the bigger picture. The area of 70 to 74k remains my focus for accumulation. At that zone, I plan to deploy 70 to 80 percent of available capital. That could change. If conditions shift, I may tell you to reduce that to 20% percent and redirect focus to the 50k to 60k region. It all depends on the market, the timing, and BTC behaivour in the following events. Stay adaptable. It can be bad, or worse for bulls. We only need to figure it out at 70-74k region. Of course I will give you a new update once we hit those targets. Invalidation of my shorts would be with weekly close above 100k region. I doubt to see this happen anytime soon. I invite you to join the DrProfit premium membership, only for $59/ month. You can try it out and cancel whenever you want. Join here: https://t.co/TvHxOtJJRL

3. Long-Term Outlook

I continue to expect the bull run to resume in May or June, with upside targets of 120 to 140k. Until then, I am holding mostly cash and focusing on expanding my short positions from 90k and 87k most recently. This is a mid-timeframe strategy and should be viewed accordingly. I will not repeat this message endlessly. You are welcome to revisit this report as many times as needed. Everything is clearly laid out. My analysis is not based on mixed signals. I provide one directional bias at a time. Clear and consistent. Let the market come to us. Stay focused. Stay patient. Execute with discipline. Soon I will drop a full bearish report about the Stock Market, especially covering NVIDIA and give you very deep insight on Retail Market sentiment and how most of people that are bullish now, will end up as exit liquidity.

4. Clarification on two bearish scenarios:

My friends, you need to understand a very important fact when trading, investing. Let me clarify in a very easy way, In my theory it can go down, or very down. Down means my target of 70-74k. Once we reach this target we can tell if its the bottom or if we expect even lower targets, there are two bearish scenarios here, one 70-74k and a Black Swan scenario with targets towards 50k region. While I am more than confident that we are going to see 70-74k, the "Black Swan" event can happen as well in this time frame. So you should prepare for the mid bleed bearish event, and the max pain bearish events. More importantly its, how are you positioned ? In my case I sold mainly everything at 90k, taking profits from investments taken since 16k. Now I am waiting with cash to buy either the bigger correction till 70-74k or the big crash towards 50k region. Wait for further updates once we hit my mentioned target.

If you look for a trading exchange with leverage I can recommend BloFin, its easy to use, no KYC required as well: https://t.co/BfOK8FYGfj

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