M_PelleteirCIO

Senior Portfolio Manager @TriVest_WAPC| CFA Charterholder | Investment Pro Columnist @fpinvesting | Goals-based Investing | Market Strategy | Views are my own

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

The worst time to figure out your strategy is during a market crash. In writing Investing Through the Storm, I analyzed four decades of market downturns. The investors who built and protected their wealth all did things differently. Find out more. Coming December 8th. Pre-

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Have to remember this one.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Bond markets doing what they are good at - demanding higher yields given massive oversupply of sovereign debt issuance and limited demand. Governments want lower yields, then cut spending.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

And yet so many arguing for a lot more rate hikes when the driver behind price increases is not wages but a global energy and resource shortage and strong demand by AI buildout. Higher rates aren’t going to fix this.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

If this continues USTs are oversold. I’ve said for some time now that being long bonds is being short oil. That relationship temporarily disconnected last 2 weeks as bond investors believe recent oil output increases not real or temporary.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Wonder why corporate bond spreads so low? 49% of new investment-grade bond issuance this year is AI-linked. Fucking scary how all-in both bond and equity investors are on this one trade. It better deliver.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Read this quote by Bill Murray tonight. So true. I don’t trust a man that doesn’t like a dog but I trust a dog that doesn’t like a man.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Have a great weekend!

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Bond markets are always in "show-me-the-money" mode reacting later than responding first. WTI oil vs $TLT (inverse) and US10s. Should oil hold at current levels, $TLT should be $82 and 10yr at 4.9%.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

AI > Oil. Crazy.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Not healthy

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

I added on US 10 year yields to the labor chart.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Thank God the US economy has this.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

This.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

and how many rate hikes are planned...🙄

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

And the revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to
-10,000, and the change for August was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000. With
these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

And the revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to
-10,000, and the change for August was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000. With
these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Not healthy.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Wins the day.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Look at this chart. This isn’t traditional demand driven inflation, it’s a supply crisis caused by the Iran war. And yet raising rates aggressively into this still being advocated by many that should know better.

[M_PelleteirCIO @MartinP_CIO]

Gold or USD, decide before Trump does it for you. https://t.co/gV9HkKiEnT