迷走

少し変化球なツイート致しますが、常識論の範囲ではお答えいたしますが、それ以外の方はお相手致しません。ご了承ください。　Bluesky @masa64bits.bsky.social

[June Goh @JuneGoh_Sparta]

I used to be in charge of all the crude and product tank inventories in the refinery.

Here is a simple picture of the operating levels of the tank. You've got deadstocks at the bottom of the tank because the pump nozzle is positioned slightly above a certain level. We used to call this 'the unpumpables'. Go below this level and your feed pump would cavitate. Big no-no.

Then you get a minimum working level after catering for contingency levels (e.g. enough product stocks to cater for x days of unplanned shutdown).

And although you have a huge tank that can technically fill to the brim, the actual working volume at the top is lower than the absolute max to also factor in for contingency levels (e.g. enough capacity to store off-spec rundown for an unplanned shutdown). Tank top scenario is a horror nobody wants to face due to risk of loss of primary containment (i.e. a safety incident).

In the current low stocks environment in the US, you are going to 'scrape tank bottoms', up to the minimum working level. So you will always have some stocks because you can't draw to absolute zero.

#oott

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

@ginxxxx_xx 宮城県はウジエスーパーじゃないんですか？　ヨークベニマルは福島81店舗　宮城65店舗

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

第一目撃者通報者Aさんは現場からの通報だったのだけれど、通報者Bの自分は現場から離れた場所で警察官に状態を引き継ぐまでの15分くらいなんだけれど　送検するにあたっての警察署での調書の作成2時間の予定って凄いな

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

目撃者D　通報者Bの自分に警察から署内で調書作成したい　身分証明書と印鑑もって来てほしい時間は2時間って大ごとやないか…

[Vatnik Soup @P_Kallioniemi]

Hopefully, Ukraine can keep sending drones to St. Petersburg throughout the five days of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

The guests need to understand two things: Russia is losing, and you don't fuck with Ukraine.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Ukraine fired its first domestically produced ballistic missile — the FP-7.

Range up to 200 km. Warhead: up to 150 kg. Top speed: 1,500 meters per second.

[ローソン @akiko_lawson]

5日間限定の無料券チャレンジ(^^)
今日はオリジナル菓子無料の2日目です♪

1）このアカウントをフォロー
2）この投稿をリポスト
3）抽選で毎日1万名様に無料券！結果は自動でお知らせ

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

@charomom2 国産鶏むね肉2㎏1380円は普通のスーパーですよ　
豚肉は部位買いしていませんね　いわゆる小間というやつで　ただ程々に脂身入ってそうなパックを選んでいますが。
小分けにして冷凍して使っていますよ

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Supply chains are starting to break down

- motor oil, diesel oil, and specialty fluids categories to drop by 40%
- 70% of the dollar value of goods shipped in the US are transported by truck

Less motor oil and specialty fluids mean supply chains are becoming more fragile and more expensive.

Critical maintenance products become scarce, transportation costs rise, equipment downtime increases, and bottlenecks start to appear throughout the economy.

Meanwhile markets are at all time highs

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

確かに雨は降ったけれど、水源地にしっかり降ったのだろうかと？

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

@Zero_E13A1 中道が中道捨てるって中途半端感酷いですね　捨てるチャンスは何度もあったでしょうに。

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

@M2_sado 欧州ってジェット燃料とかガスは綱渡りなんですよね　そういう現地レポすればいいのにと　確かフランス在住でしたっけ？

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

Naphtha hit $1,300 a ton when Hormuz closed.

ADNOC found a workaround.

It's now $788.

In April, ADNOC halted exports of roughly 1 million metric tons per month of naphtha from its Ruwais refinery.

Hormuz was too risky.
Asia supply collapsed.

Prices spiked to record levels $1,300/ton, margins of $467/ton over Brent.

Last month, ADNOC quietly resumed exports through the Omani port of Sohar.

tankers collect cargoes from inside the Gulf, sail to Sohar, transfer ship-to-ship to outbound vessels headed for Asia.

Longer, more complex, more expensive but it works.

2 vessels loaded ADNOC naphtha at Sohar around May 30 and are now heading to Asia.

Prices tumbled to $788/ton.

Margins collapsed to $84/ton over Brent.

This is the Hormuz workaround thesis playing out in real time.

Middle East producers aren't waiting for the strait to reopen.
They're rerouting.
STS transfers off Oman.

Alternative loading terminals. Longer voyages at higher freight cost but supply is moving.

Every workaround that works chips away at the geopolitical risk premium the market was pricing.

But read the demand side carefully before calling this a clean reversal.

The $512/ton price collapse isn't only workaround supply... It's also demand destruction.

Insufficient feedstock supply has already triggered widespread run cuts and force majeures at petrochemical complexes across Asia.

Plants that shut don't immediately restart when supply returns. Buyers that restructured their feedstock sourcing don't immediately unwind.

The IEA now expects global naphtha demand to fall 80,000 b/d this year.

That demand loss doesn't come back when Hormuz normalises it's already been destroyed.

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

宮ケ瀬ダムは少しでも水貯まったのでしょうか…
多摩川水系も少しは上流部に降ったのかな？
災害は起きてほしくないですがまとまった量の雨も重要で水位の回復って時間掛かるのですよ

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

世界がこんなに荒れていて、毎日ニュースを見聞きして自分なりの節制は心掛けていている。
少しでも需給バランスが崩れると大変な分野がどんどん増えていくだろうし　国が呼びかけようとも呼びかけなくとも　絶対的な物理的制約が起こらない限り「自分はやってますよー」で終わりますからね

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

今の不毛な足りる足りてないの話
流通経路が原材料・微量な添加成分から中間素材・完成品の状態など複雑で国境を複数跨ぐ製品も多く　体力がない国外も含めて遅かれ早かれ厳しくなってくる
コスト度外視で凍える様な冬は避けられる程度の認識。
根拠ありな過剰な楽観論も行き過ぎた悲観論の間くらい

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

歯医者の一連の治療を終えて定期健診兼ねて次回3か月後くらいに予約どうですかって？
8月暑いし避けたい　9月の1週目で予約。
冷静に考えたら9月の1週目も8月同様に暑いよな　10月の1週目と勘違いしていた

[ローソン @akiko_lawson]

5日間限定の無料券チャレンジ(^^)
今日はオリジナル菓子無料の1日目です♪

1）このアカウントをフォロー
2）この投稿をリポスト
3）抽選で毎日1万名様に無料券！結果は自動でお知らせ

[迷走 @Masa64bits]

@northfox_wind ナフサの元ENEOS師匠
「韓国ウルサン 広域市のＳＫエナジー社ウルサンコンプレックス内に新設された潤滑油ベースオイル製造設備により、 共同事業」って理解できているのか不思議です　
https://t.co/NjIDtNj9C4