Match Point

Data-driven tennis betting
Value over hype
ATP • WTA • Grand Slams

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

First month on Twitter as a tennis tipster... not bad, considering I started on 25th July.

Thanks to all who have followed, and hopefully made some cash along the way.

I'd love to try and get this to grow, so if you stumble across it and like what you see, drop a follow ❤️

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

Friday's Tennis Picks:

🇨🇦 ATP Montreal
🇦🇺 Alexei Popyrin ML @ 1.80 (1u)
🇫🇷 Terence Atmane ML @ 3.00 (1u)

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇨🇦 ATP Montreal
🇦🇺 Alexei Popyrin ML @ 1.80 (1u)

I feel like I'm very late to the Popyrin party, but I'm ready to join in.

He won this event back in 2024, so he has a love for the place. The way he has played this week so far, you can see why he gets on well with this surface.

His serves have been on point, and when he's got that weapon firing on all cylinders, he's a tough nut to crack.

Tirante is going to get support on the back of the victory over Taylor Fritz, but can you read into that? Taylor had a long week when winning at Washington, and then had to travel and play with no rest time, so that was not a true showing on the American's part.

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇨🇦 ATP Montreal
🇫🇷 Terence Atmane ML @ 3.00 (1u)

To see the discrepancy in the odds between Atmane and Jakub Mensik seems a little crazy. If they remain this at CLV, I'd be gobsmacked.

Mensik has won ATP events, including Miami last year, so we know he is more than capable of doing damage. The main problem is his recent form, which is very in and out.

Atmane won for us against Khachanov in the previous round as an underdog, and I think he has to be played again.

He is playing very well at the minute, and his game looks well suited to these courts. If Mensik is dropping sets to Fearnley and dropped a set to ATP 383rd-ranked Trevor Svadja, there's no way Atmane should be at 3.00 odds.

#Gambling

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

@fablous89157837 Job done 🧹

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇩🇪 Hagen Challenger
🇪🇸 Carlos Taberner ML @ 2.20 ✅

Took him a while to warm into the match, but once he got level, there was only going to be one winner.

Vamos!

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇩🇪 Hagen Challenger
🇪🇸 Carlos Taberner ML @ 2.20 (1u)

This match is priced up on Carlos making a recent return from a long abdominal strain injury, which kept him out from February to last month.

He returned with a straight sets defeat at San Marino, but bounced back with an easy win over J B Torres the other day, winning 6-2 6-0.

On his day, Taberner is a much better player than Topo. He’s won a few Challenger events, whereas his opponent hasn’t.

This time last year Taberner reached the final of ATP Umag. He was beaten, but there’s no way you could dream of Topo getting to that level.

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇺🇸 Lexington Challenger
🇯🇵 Rei Sakamoto ML @ 1.83 ✅

Rei was the better player in the first set, but then the rain came, and his momentum was checked.

Mmoh got into the game whilst Sakamoto was rusty, but for some reason Mmoh started to lose his head, and Sakamoto took the driving seat and ran away with it.

3/3 winning selections today.

Likes and follows are always greatly appreciated ❤️

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇺🇸 Lexington Challenger
🇯🇵 Rei Sakamoto ML @ 1.83 (1u)

This is another closely matched game, but my position was always going towards Sakamoto’s direction.

I feel like the fresher player with more to come in his career is definitely Rei.

He took Rafa Jodar to five sets in the Australian Open at the start of the year. Jodar has obviously improved since, but he was still a very solid player back in January.

He beat Mayo in the previous round, and that would have been a nice warmup for future American tournaments.

We know these courts are fine for him, he beat Kovacevic in the first round of Miami and then took Medvedez to a decider in round two.

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

@beltislive Sadly, it looks like it has. Playing awful this second set.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

@fablous89157837 🙏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇵🇱 Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger
🇦🇹 Joel Josef Schwaerzler ML @ 1.83 ✅

I can’t comment on the majority of the last set, as I didn’t have the time to watch it.

I’m surprised he’s won that, as he couldn’t touch the serve of Dougaz. His returns were awful and only mustered up a couple of break points in the final set.

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇵🇱 Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger
🇦🇹 Joel Josef Schwaerzler ML @ 1.83 (1u)

This match is priced up as a pick-em, and I can see why the bookies would think it is.

JJ Schwaerzler is definitely better on clay, whilst his opponent has a solid hard court record. The main thing is that Aziz Dougaz does the vast majority of his winning in his home land of Tunisia, and also in ITF competitions.

JJ has competed to a better level on a regular basis, albeit that is mostly on clay. He did make a good run in an indoor hard event, where he lost in the final to Piros, who is one of the better challenger players.

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇺🇸 Lexington Challenger
🇯🇵 Rei Sakamoto ML @ 1.83 (1u)

This is another closely matched game, but my position was always going towards Sakamoto’s direction.

I feel like the fresher player with more to come in his career is definitely Rei.

He took Rafa Jodar to five sets in the Australian Open at the start of the year. Jodar has obviously improved since, but he was still a very solid player back in January.

He beat Mayo in the previous round, and that would have been a nice warmup for future American tournaments.

We know these courts are fine for him, he beat Kovacevic in the first round of Miami and then took Medvedez to a decider in round two.

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇩🇪 Hagen Challenger
🇪🇸 Carlos Taberner ML @ 2.20 (1u)

This match is priced up on Carlos making a recent return from a long abdominal strain injury, which kept him out from February to last month.

He returned with a straight sets defeat at San Marino, but bounced back with an easy win over J B Torres the other day, winning 6-2 6-0.

On his day, Taberner is a much better player than Topo. He’s won a few Challenger events, whereas his opponent hasn’t.

This time last year Taberner reached the final of ATP Umag. He was beaten, but there’s no way you could dream of Topo getting to that level.

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

🇵🇱 Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger
🇦🇹 Joel Josef Schwaerzler ML @ 1.83 (1u)

This match is priced up as a pick-em, and I can see why the bookies would think it is.

JJ Schwaerzler is definitely better on clay, whilst his opponent has a solid hard court record. The main thing is that Aziz Dougaz does the vast majority of his winning in his home land of Tunisia, and also in ITF competitions.

JJ has competed to a better level on a regular basis, albeit that is mostly on clay. He did make a good run in an indoor hard event, where he lost in the final to Piros, who is one of the better challenger players.

#Gambling𝕏

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

@freysavage I'm past the point of being angry. I could call every single mistake he was going to do; it was obvious.

You could tell when he was going to hit the net.

The open shot at a clear court, and he overhits it was a belter.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

Fair enough, take the 2u loss.

Most painful game of Tennis I think I've ever watched.

Federico Cina deserves a ban for many years based on that performance.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

Federico Cina is 100% match fixing; he's not even hiding it anymore.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

@freysavage It's painful because Shelbayh is playing that poorly, it makes Cina look even more retarded if he is match fixing.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

@freysavage I want to take my eyes out. This is fucking painful. Shelbayh is so bad.

Blatant match fixing, and it's so obvious.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

Federico Cina is 100% match fixing; he's not even hiding it anymore.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

Cina has just lost the first set when being 5-2 up, I cannot believe my eyes.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

Cina has just lost the first set when being 5-2 up, I cannot believe my eyes.

[Match Point @MatchPointEdge]

Recap for Wednesday's Tennis:

🇨🇦 ATP Montreal
🇨🇱 Alejandro Tabilo ML @ 2.50 (1u)
🇫🇷 Terence Atmane ML @ 2.20 (1u)

🇹🇷 Istanbul Challenger
🇵🇹 Tiago Periera ML @ 2.37 (1u)

🇺🇸 Lexington Challenger
🇮🇹 Federico Cina ML @ 1.73 (2u)

#Gambling𝕏