Bottom Line:
Expect 200-230 yards from Stroud today. NE defense is middle of the pack (6.33 YPAA) and Stroud has been solid lately (234 avg last 5)
If Stroud gets hot like Week 15 (8.97 YPA) → 260+ yards
If NE plays like their best game (4.00 YPAA) → ~180 yards
#DallasCowboys' 68.8% hit rate = STRONG odds of a starter. If they go O, history says it's almost automatic. If they go D, it's a coin flip
Boys are one of the BEST Round 1 drafting teams in the NFL ('10-24). Top-5 hit rate, top-7 production, They know what they're doing at #11
With pick #6: #KCChiefs' 58.3% hit rate says slightly better than a coin flip. They're not elite drafters or terrible. They're perfectly average .
Bottom Line: Avg at Rd 1 drafting, but when they hit, they hit BIG (5 elite players in 12 picks).#NFLDraft
Bottom Line: If #NYGiants take edge at #5, they're betting on:
Their own recent edge drafting history
55.6% top-5 edge hit rate
Giants 62.5% defensive R1 hit rate
This is one of the STRONGEST statistical plays in the top 5. Pattern says: EDGE AT #5 WORKS FOR THE GIANTS. #NFLDraft
With pick #5: #NYGiants' 57.1% hit rate says slightly better than a coin flip. They've had success w/ star offensive players in top 15 but recent history shows volatility
Bottom Line: Middle-of-pack drafting team w/ high volume of picks. Hit on obvious, miss on developmental guys
Risk Assessment:
✅ WR in top 10 = 61.9% hit rate
❌ #Titans WR track record = 33.3% (1 of 3)
Bottom Line: If Titans take WR at #4, they're betting on a 61.9% top-10 WR hit rate to overcome their own 33.3% WR drafting history. Position history says yes, team history says no.
#Titans Round 1 Performance:
Bottom Line: Titans have the WORST average production per Round 1 pick in the NFL (2010-2024). With pick #4, their track record says 52.6% chance of finding a starter, but that starter will likely produce below league average. #NFLDraft
Cardinals #NFLDraft Risk:
✅ RB in top 16 = 72.7% hit rate (>NFL Avg 54.5%)
⚠️ Position value debate: RB at #3 overall in 2025?
Historical: Cards take RB #3, they get a 72.7% hit rate for top 16 RBs. Recent top RBs (Zeke, Saquon, CMC, Bijan) hit. Pattern says: RB in top 16 works
My database as the entire draft, rosters and undrafted free agents since 2010
Go ahead and #AskMatrixAI anything on the draft and Ill try to answer it today
My database as the entire draft, rosters and undrafted free agents since 2010
Go ahead and #AskMatrixAI anything on the draft and Ill try to answer it today
Since 2010 #DallasCowboys great at offensive positions in R1/R2:
#1 at RB (1/1) & WR (2/2)
#7 at OL (elite 87.5%)
Dallas STRUGGLES on defense in R1/R2:
#23 at DL (20% - can't find pass rushers)
#29 at DB (28.6% - bottom 5 in NFL)
#NFLDraft
My quick card on Texas Tech Akron. Can the Akron offense keep them close?
All cards on my sub site where I post my creations from the data and instructions
History by seed: UK 61%
Best offense: UK
Better defense: SC
12% conference adjustment
Projected win: UK but tight (under 3 points) and a total of 151.
All projections on the sub site
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