GOLDMAN LIFTS OIL OUTLOOK ON SUPPLY RISKS
Goldman Sachs raised its oil forecasts, seeing Brent at ~$90 and WTI at ~$83 in Q4, citing reduced Middle East supply and prolonged disruption from the Iran war.
Prices have already jumped ~40% since the conflict began, with risks skewed higher due to shortages and tight product markets.
In a worst-case scenario, Goldman sees Brent topping $100 if Gulf exports recover more slowly. Citigroup has also lifted its outlook, signaling sustained price pressure.
Someone could go to school for 4 years and study aerospace engineering, then get a PhD with a dissertation related to orbital mechanics, and some instagram influencer who watched a youtube video will be like "actually that guy is wrong" on a topic related to space travel and people will believe them.
I'm not sure how we got here, but I hope we go back to a society where credibility is earned with rigorous training in the associated field, not by a popularity contest.
TRADERS POUR $977 MILLION INTO LEVERED BET THAT OIL WILL PLUNGE
Oil traders made a big leveraged bet that prices would fall from war-driven highs — but many are losing badly.
Investors poured $977M into the inverse oil ETF (SCO) in March, its biggest monthly inflow ever. The fund aims to profit when oil drops, but instead plunged 41% as crude surged.
The bet hinges on a quick end to conflict. While the fund briefly jumped 8% after signals of de-escalation, oil prices remain elevated — rising as high as $119 and still around $102, well above February levels.
Ongoing supply disruptions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, could keep prices high for months. Even a ceasefire may not be enough for short traders to recover.
Bottom line: this is a high-risk “war ends soon” trade — and so far, it’s backfiring.
Imagine being Powell right now.
Brought inflation down from 9% to 2.7% while keeping the unemployment rate at 4%.
Stocks, Bitcoin, and Gold are all at all time highs.
And people are demanding he resign.
Donald Trump, the first crypto President, just helped pull off the biggest crypto rug pull of all time. A Congressional investigation is now warranted to find out the following regarding this pump and dump scheme.
Who authored the two Sunday afternoon posts on the President's Truth Social account?
Who knew about the first post in advance, and when were they first informed of the wording of the post and the timing of its release?
How much money those with advance notice spent buying XRP, ADA, SOL, BTC, and ETH, and if they sold, the exact timing of those sales, and the proceeds received?
We also need all emails or text messages that involve any members of the President's staff, his or their family or friends, his campaign donors, or Truth Social employees, that relate to either of the two Sunday Truth Social posts.
December's jobs report exceeded expectations with +256K jobs added
Kalshi traders forecasted a 57% chance of +200K jobs and a 31% chance of over +250K
Wall Street gave 0% odds for this range, with estimates as low as +120K (Citi)
Real markets > opinions