Matteo Spinosa

Bitcoiner after 20 years in banking. Now BTCfi’ing with Doefin: unlocking ₿ native yield with hashrate derivatives.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

Doefin is the first prediction markets on Bitcoin network difficulty.
"price = probability" and indicative pricing is within only ~3% of theoretical probability!

We are beta launching in June, offering a real opportunity for miners and BTC investors to hedge or monetize views on network hashrate with:

1) tight pricing
2) no counterparty credit risk
3) no centralised oracle
4) simplest trading experience (connect your wallet) and payout
5) settlement in USDT or BTC

A screenshot of Doefin's orderbook (price as of yesterday) below.

#BTC #Bitcoin #Hashrate #BitcoinMining @MARA @CleanSpark_Inc @Hut8Corp @adam3us

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

You know you have become a Bitcoin Maxi when your stack is in your wallet and you don’t look at the price anymore.

#bitcoin #btc #hashrate

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@pete_rizzo_ Exactly what it is:
Peer-to-peer electronic cash system

https://t.co/IC57OpLJSL

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

T is the only variable in the formula: resetting every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) as hashrate moves. It sets how much work and energy it takes to mine the next block. @doefinofficial is building trustless prediction markets on Bitcoin difficulty, so you will be able to take exposure or hedge the core variable cost of Bitcoin mining.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

T is the only variable in the formula: the target reset every ~2 weeks as hashrate moves. It sets how much work and energy it takes to mine the next block. @doefinofficial is building trustless prediction markets on Bitcoin difficulty: so the market can finally take exposure and hedge the core variable cost of securing the network (difficulty which moves with hashrate)

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@TheStalwart Think about the signals we are building, launching a prediction market on Bitcoin network difficulty.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@SimonPB @TheStalwart Building a prediction market myself (@doefinofficial), I discovered this only very recently. The price on many markets in different DEXs attracts attention but there is no depth.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@PeterSchiff You are valuing Bitcoin. You should value the power underneath it.
Bitcoin mining is the buyer of last resort for electricity: it floors power markets and now bids against AI for the same megawatts.
That is the productive use you say does not exist.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

Bitcoin miners get paid in BTC.
Their earnings depend on their share of the total network hashrate.
When network hashrate rises, difficulty increases — and each unit of hashrate earns less BTC.
Look at this chart: hashrate and difficulty adjustments swing significantly every couple of weeks (easily +/-10%), making miner revenues unpredictable.
Doefin is launching soon with trustless prediction markets on Bitcoin difficulty — giving miners and investors the first on-chain tools to take directional views or hedge this exact risk.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Hashrate #Difficulty

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@TrendingBitcoin Not $190,000... but $189,000

[Trending Bitcoin @TrendingBitcoin]

🇺🇸 $2 TRILLION BANKING GIANT CITI BANK SAID BITCOIN IS STILL GOING TO $189,000 IN 2026

TIGHTEN YOUR SEATBELTS 🚀

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@askOkara Bitcoin native yield

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@jameslavish There is another chart I would watch: Bitcoin network hashrate becoming more volatile and more correlated to BTC price.

Once the rotation of capital happens and AI hype normalises, network hashrate becomes the next Bitcoin metric to watch... and it's becoming investable.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

Got quoted in Investing com article today on #BTC's macro.
Everyone talks about price, I talk #hashrate.

https://t.co/AvWEk0yY6v

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

Meeting the Jacks!
My judges from @cypher_tank at @BTCPrague.

Thank you @jackmallers @JackLeePV

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@SantoXBT https://t.co/IE53mNMMxB

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

We did some research: the incentive to lease a megawatt to AI instead of mining with it has been in force on 93% of days since the 2024halving — it is 2–4× in size.
In simple words: the same electricity earnstwo to four times more rented to an AI company than used for mining.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@CoinMarketCap I posted about this few hours ago ... power producers make 2-4x more money by leasing energy to AI instead of mining!

https://t.co/IE53mNMMxB

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

We did some research: the incentive to lease a megawatt to AI instead of mining with it has been in force on 93% of days since the 2024halving — it is 2–4× in size.
In simple words: the same electricity earnstwo to four times more rented to an AI company than used for mining.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

We did some research: the incentive to lease a megawatt to AI instead of mining with it has been in force on 93% of days since the 2024halving — it is 2–4× in size.
In simple words: the same electricity earnstwo to four times more rented to an AI company than used for mining.

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@PhadsEth This is a summary of how Bitcoin miners are transitioning to AI

[Matteo Spinosa @MatteoDoefin]

@Giovann35084111 Agree. And AI and Bitcoin will converge on the power infrastructure. Equilibrium rather than competition