matteo

When asked if we're in an AI bubble, Ray Dalio replied: "Indicators show that we’re about 80% in the last two times” - referring to 1929 and 2000. Dalio uses a bubble indicator tracking data back to 1900. It measures several factors: - How much leverage exists - Who's using that leverage - The ratio of wealth to available cash - And so on These indicators show we're deep into bubble territory, but not necessarily at the peak. That’s why he mentioned: “Don’t sell just because there’s a bubble”. Because bubbles can keep inflating. Dalio references how the market surged 90% from early 1928 to September 1929, even after Charles Merrill warned investors to get out. The timing depends on what "pricks" the bubble, and that hasn't happened yet. So what actually bursts bubbles? "The need for cash," Dalio explains. "You can't spend wealth. You have to sell wealth in order to get the money." When asset holders must sell - that's when bubbles pop. Classic triggers include tight Fed policy (unlikely now) or wealth taxes. When the interviewer mentions wealth tax proposals in California, Dalio confirms they exist at both state and national levels and could force asset sales. The real danger isn't valuations alone - it's when circumstances force selling. Ray Dalio covers why we're in a bubble, why you shouldn't sell yet and when to actually sell based on historical patterns in this 9-minute interview with CNBC. If you'd like to watch it, like and comment "DALIO" and I'll send it to you.