Matthew Dorn

[Matthew Dorn @MatthewDorn14]

@RealPeterLinder Thanks! Same thoughts, good advice as usual.

[Ryan Rozbiani @RyanRozbiani]

The HORMUZ is FULLY CLOSED

Kepler Company: No vessels were recorded passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.

[AllThingsVentured @AllVentured]

Demand isn't magically rebounding. It never fell. It was untracked inventory drawdown. Now that the invisible inventories are depleted, we see oil and product stocks drawing at the rates you would expect.

The oil bears and demand destructionistas are in for a rude awakening.

[$Trader @GDXTrader]

$XLE

$XLE delivered a clean breakout above descending resistance Tuesday, followed by a bullish continuation candle yesterday, confirming buyers remain in control.

MACD continues expanding to the upside, reinforcing bullish momentum, while price trades above key moving averages.

The key now is for former descending resistance to hold as new support, which would keep the breakout structure intact, and bulls now want to establish a higher high above the May 2026 peak to further confirm the developing uptrend.

$XOM $CVX $COP $EOG $OXY $SLB $MPC $PSX $VLO $FANG $HES $DVN

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

We are sleepwalking into an energy crisis.

Again, someone decided the best time to short oil was during illiquid trading hours.

You can push down the paper price all you want...

As long as the Fed doesn't figure out how to print physical oil, we are fucked.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Iran has fired missiles at the Oman lane everyday for the last 11 days.

Is that right?

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Multiple areas of Russia's port of Novorossiysk are ablaze this morning after a Ukrainian drone raid.

NASA's FIRMS has detected fires at multiple parts of the harbor, including the Transneft oil terminal and Russian Navy base.

[Matthew Dorn @MatthewDorn14]

@anasalhajji Great discussion!

[Matthew Dorn @MatthewDorn14]

@RealPeterLinder He is back!

[Matthew Dorn @MatthewDorn14]

@RealPeterLinder Come on you kept me sane the past month!

[Global News Monitor @GlobalNewsMontr]

⚡CNN

Since March: Trump has said 38 times that the US is close to a deal with Iran and Iran is begging for a deal

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Crude down 4%

They are subsidizing demand

Hormuz is closed

Inventories are draining rapidly

Enjoy a few more weeks in fantasy land

[Matthew Dorn @MatthewDorn14]

@RealPeterLinder @cactusmaac I followed your advice and have also been sleeping well!

[Matthew Dorn @MatthewDorn14]

@trend_bullish @KHerriage Kip

[Matthew Dorn @MatthewDorn14]

@RealPeterLinder Thanks

[Bullish Trend 🇨🇦 @trend_bullish]

@KHerriage I’ll take the other side of this statement😉

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

In Tehran, the IRGC is already staging “victory” marches under the emerging agreement, parading ballistic missiles from underground bases while senior regime officials reemerge from bunkers. Tehran is signaling that the regime survived, rearmed, and is ready for the next phase.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Awesome.

[Matthew Dorn @MatthewDorn14]

@trend_bullish @KHerriage Kip

[Morgan Downey @morgan_downey]

Oil bears: following the Trump/ Iran deal over the weekend although we will likely see a very short term (Monday) speculative long position unwinding, don’t expect a collapse to $70 crude over the next months. 

Recap: Major Strait update on Saturday May 23, 2026.  Trump/Iran announced deal. 

Oil (WTI) closed Friday at around $97. The market reopens Sunday evening around 6pm ET. 

US blockade lifted by June 30? Now (Sunday May 24) 85% on Polymarket. Up from under 50% last week. 

Normal traffic by June 30? Only 60% probability on Polymarket. 

The market senses correctly that the blockade being removed still means a long recovery time. 

This oil recovery will take 6 months of possibly $100-$150 oil or even higher. 

Charts show it clearly.

Currently there is 12 mil bpd outage. In the crisis global production fell from 105 to 93 mil bpd. 

The fact that July and December Polymarket quotes are not showing a 100% recovery to normal is showing that the market senses the outage recovery will be 5 mil bpd in July recovering back to 10 mil bpd (of the total 12 outage) by December. 

So effectively a 7 mil bpd outage for the balance of 2026. This is 1.5 billion barrels inventory reduction. 

Equivalent to the total global SPR outage before the crisis. 

This balance of 2026 inventory fall is an additional reduction to the existing draw downs since Feb 2026. 

So even if peace starts today the entire global SPR is still going to be wiped out.

Even with peace the damage has been done: over the next 6 months a $150+ oil spike is still not just in play, it is highly likely. 

Longer term (2-3 years) $100+ crude is the  new normal as Hormuz avoiding pipelines will take 3-5 years to build and Iranian instability is likely to continue during this time. 

Peace is expensive. $100+ oil is the price.

Now Venezuela and Iran are done, on to Cuba. 

Cuba has no meaningful oil production, but has a 5 billion barrel offshore potential.  Trump likely to fast-track US drilling if Cuba boots China/Russia.