Matthew Dundon

Principal of Dundon Advisers LLC and Dundon Markets LLC

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@sfsignal Nice return!

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@kirawontmiss A cheeseburger is not unhealthy for a healthy active person, and beats the heck out of a lot meals that you might think are healthier.

It’s when you combine it with 700 kcal and 125 carb grams with a large coke and fries that it becomes hard to handle.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

The DSA very cleverly recognized an opportunity in districts where there are a lot of anti-Israel foreign immigrants and a lot of young white left-wingers, and too few Republicans and independents for the general election to become at issue. They also clocked that the Democratic Party establishment was insufficiently agile to counter the threat. Presumably there will be a lot of establishment soul-searching next year that will result in a more prepared establishment for the 2028 primary season.

DeGrette's ouster illustrates that this isn't just a New York phenomenon, but even in New York the fact that Ritchie Torres and George Latimer are going back to Congress and Micah Lasher is joining them shows that there are certainly limits.

This will get interesting when the DSA starts targeting and winning primaries in swing districts, because then the pro-Israel and business interests that generally support Democrats will have some hard choices to make.

It will get VERY interesting if the DSA caucus in the House next year starts to demand significant concessions and makes significant moves if those concessions are not granted.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@suchnerve Your appetite will recover over time and as your BMI drops further. What hopefully will not come back for you is torturous food noise.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

Under current laws, this won't happen. Change of ownership (including foreclosure) doesn't give the new owner any new rights to convert to condo or co-op, or to change the rent or other terms of the stabilized lease. No tenants would find it in their interest to participate in a condo or co-op conversion since it would involve them paying for something (tenure of residency, exposure to increased operating costs) that they now get for free.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@DrYakub5000 @pauleklink @KillaKreww Three Kings…

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

As to Texas, Florida or Alabama, no one is suggesting that the DSA model works statewide in large states through to the general election.

As to individual districts, and Alaska, there isn't one district in any of those states, nor is Alaska, the right-wing equivalent of NY-7, 10, 13 or 14 -- heavy domestic migration of young enthusiastic hard-right-wing voters, heavy international migration of supporters of Israel, and an existing Republican primary electorate which is low-income and low-turnout.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

Novo will approval of its amylin agonist cagrilintide this year. It is primarily proposing it for co-administration with semaglutide but it would be smart for them also to offer a standalone dosing, which can be combined with tirzepatide or retatrutide. (This of course is already being done with great regularity on the grey market, wher cagri is available standalone and is typically stacked that way.)

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

Affordable housing depreciates for real not just for the taxman and a 60 year old project that hasn't had consistent capex can become a basket case easily - NOI more negative occupied than vacant given high current opex. A market like Austin-San Marcos corridor where there's been a huge amount of new construction at all price levels, including significant affordable set asides, means that you can get pounded even worse because even subsidized tenants can have good move-out options.

Many of these projects - and you have to think a location in Austin - can pencil for reconstruction at something like 70% market rate, 20% affordable at 80%+ AMI, and 10% deep affordable. That's a very hard pill to swallow if the project is currently 70% occupied all with deep affordable tenants; easier to manage if the project is empty.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@tornatore @credealjunkie Short answer: no. Long answer: AAU is engaged in significant marketing and sales efforts, including a recent office-to-residential conversion sale, and appears to be addressing the market quite prudently.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@sam_d_1995 So … the union is looking out for its members? This is what they get paid dues to do.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@ThePepGuy Same prices they are selling tirzepatide for now, so payors have no excuse to deny RXs and people will make the move to reta from tirz on Lilly Direct.

Novo will need to cut prices on sema further and will have to roll out CagriSema cheap to begin with.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

A lot of pieces here.

First, some measure of "killing it" is circular. Harvard brand and networking is a pure gift, and if admission feels that a great erg score makes you more deserving of a Harvard College AB than being a math genius, than that's what it is.

Second, some measure of "killing it" reflects the fact that IQ ain't everything. If we take the protypical reject to be a 140 IQ 5'7" violinist son of a directional state university chemistry professor, you know he's going to be outperformed most of the time in the long run by the 125 IQ 6'3" son of a Darien hedge fund manager who can stroke for the Crimson at Head of the Charles or someone so ruthlessly ambitious to have, at 17, three US Senators to write her recs and 100,000 Insta followers for her summer fits.

Third, the most elite schools in the US actually "kill it" much less than their foreign peers do, perhaps because they intentionally do not concentrate their admissions on the smartest students. If you shorthand the ultimate "killers" in some reasonable way - say, US Senators, NFL team owners, and Fortune 500 CEOs - there's far more undergraduate institution dispersion than you see in comparable prestigious roles in Japan, the UK, or continental Europe.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@SPSeahawk @mattyglesias I am not sure the premise is fair. Those schools aren’t “whiffing” - they’re intentionally rejecting many thousands of kids they know are smarter than 90% of the kids they are admitting.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@bq8250 @DudeWhoInvests Decent point.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

The very few domestic MDs or DOs who can't match to primary medicine residencies are no one you want caring for you. There are more primary medicine residency slots than domestic MD and DOs who want them - citizen FMGs and immigrant FMGs make up the difference. The only way you increase the % of domestic MDs and DOs in these programs is to increase the number of medical school seats.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

This is this is aggressively crazy. Semaglutide pill underperforms semaglutide shot which underperforms CagriSema shot which slightly underperforms tirzepatide shot which (likely) underperforms retatrutide shot. Prescriber prescribe and more importantly payors pay for efficacy not convenience of administration for people who are phobic of a painless weekly shot. End of the day Novo will have to discount everything - very much including Wegovy pill - to survive. A profitable business? Absolutely. But a Lilly killer? Absolutely not.

[Matthew Dundon @MatthewDundon]

@StockChaser_ Firm maybe! You need to model for its patent expiry outlook, and for its sales mostly to depend upon accepting lower margins by selling semaglutide and cagrilintide as cheaper "good enough" solutions vs. tirzpetatide and retatrudtide.