Matthew 🧙‍♂️

Researcher | @Oz_Dao

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@0xJezza Great pick up

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

when you make a call on a trade & all the bros make money

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Unfathomably bad takes around this this morning and a good reminder of why 13F digging is mostly a waste of time.

- March 31st we were in the heat of the Iran war, makes sense to put on hedges at the time.
- Options exposure on 13F’s get quoted notionally, so as if it were 100 delta i.e all 100 shares per contract.
- We have no way of knowing whether these were 5 delta convexity hedges and represented a fraction of what people are saying were billions in puts or whether they were ITM puts.
- Further, outright shorts don’t get reported either.

Too much noise associated with things that happened back in March that aren’t relevant now, we have no idea about his turnover in assets of trade frequency.

A lot happened in the months of April and May, his positioning could be completely different. Making investment decisions for 80 vol assets based on data from months ago sounds like a good way to burn money.

So don’t idolize people and develop
Your own thesis for why you sell and own things.

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@lBattleRhino Gm

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

your life is a blank canvas and you're always holding the paintbrush

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@Icebergy 👋

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@0xjune_ 👍

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@OttoSuwen I feel like eventually something will stick in terms of a crypto game and all the L’s are just experience points for you. When that thing will exist who knows

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@ScizRtrading Legit forgot about those times

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@0xJezza great point

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@0xJezza Link?

[🃏 @AgentZero]

Wasting ur time In doubts about if ur gonna be successful in something or not is useless, learning this with time.

With action u can only control whats within ur limits, either u succeed or u failed & need to reevaluate. Mental doubt is prolly the biggest goal killing roadblock

[Citrini @citrini]

if it were to be over right now, my main takeaway would be that i should have enjoyed us being back more

[punter @punter_punts]

Many wait for arbitrary levels to confirm “direction” - usually after prices have already moved in said direction quite significantly.

Think it’s a result of many biases, but one that stands out to me is sizing. When you’re all in - you’re scared to be wrong even a little bit.

And yet this tends to force you to enter a move just as it becomes likely to revert. The solution is to size down across positions, using max size only when a real opportunity presents itself.

I’m sympathetic to the fact that while growing your stack, there comes some key moments we throw risk management to the wind to reach the next stage. Just make those shots count, and try not to do it late into a trend.

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@S4ndr0_0 Def a valid take

[Matthew 🧙‍♂️ @MatthewPBF]

@S4ndr0_0 Igu, you use any strategies or just burned money because of tilt?