Matthias

YouTube: Matthias on Adventures

[Carl Moon 🌙 @carlmoon]

I’ve never seen a cycle like this.

Not in 2017.
Not in 2021.

2024–2025 broke a lot of assumptions.

Sure Bitcoin surged, but didn’t go to $300,000 like I expected.

Most altcoins went nowhere. I’m down over 90% on some altcoins.

There was no real rotation.
No sustained momentum.
Just short-lived pumps followed by heavy sell-offs.

I also want to take responsibility here: I said more than once that an altcoin season was coming. That didn’t play out, and for that, I’m sorry.

For a lot of retail, this wasn’t about missing upside, it was about surviving drawdowns.

This didn’t feel cyclical.
It felt structural.

Maybe that’s the takeaway.

Tough lesson. Hard cycle.

I’m sorry for being to bullish last year, I was clearly wrong.

[Matthias @Matthias981]

@BobLoukas @Krrryptomike Nice 😉👍

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

OK, which one of you degens is rallying the troops?

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Every cycle feels different, but it never is.

You make real money on paper and think it’s permanent. Then you round-trip it and swear you’re done forever.

You then miss the early part of the next cycle because of PTSD. You buy back some only after it doubles “just to be safe.” You get fully loaded by the mid-cycle, the tingly feeling is back. You promise yourself this time you’ve learned a thing or two and will be smart and reasonable this time.

Then the gains start and you take the bait, you get emotional, fall in love, and go searching for narratives to latch too. The hucksters are back too in full force selling you a dream, you ignore their last cycle grift, and fall for their new shiny paper. A faster path to your dream. You start regurgitating all their talking points, welcome to the club.

You start adding leverage, this is easy, you’re going to be super-yacht rich. You buy garbage tokens and projects, telling yourself they figured out some money glitch. It’s a whole new paradigm. You start to project where you’re going to be just one year out at this rate and say that’s too long, let’s go harder. And then the rugs begin to get pulled.

You’re quickly down 50% on a leveraged/speculative pile of poop, that you fear selling at such a “discount”. What about the dream. Paralysis becomes so great you can’t even action an exit over your better thoughts.

And not before long, you’re back to the beginning.
-----------------------------

I know this is only a subset of people entirely, more so in crypto, but I think we all to some level or extent, fall for the above. I do too!
So not intended to throw shade on people (except the hucksters), but a reminder that a balance between risk and preservation is paramount, but more importantly when to be balanced between the two at various stages of the cycle. Knowing where we are in the cycle requires being as unemotional and agnostic to your positions as possible. Once money becomes so personal, rational judgement is lost.

As for where we are now. Stocks haven’t broken down broadly, although the cracks are forming. We’re in a bull trend still, but also in that “be mindful” stage, and dips are probably not opportunities anymore.

For crypto, the carnage is huge, but can get so much worse. We’re way past the get out stage, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get out to live another day. If you’re sitting on stuff with paralysis, free yourself of this burden and dump it. A worthless token isn’t cheap because it's down 60%.
This does not apply to spot bitcoin, you’re not selling that 44% off highs, even expecting much deeper levels to come in 2026.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

When everyone finally accepts it’s a bear market, it’s usually closer to the end than the beginning.

That’s also where most people throw in the towel. We always behave the same way.

Patience is needed. Every phase of the Cycle has an action. This too shall pass.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

@iwantlambo Mastercard should already be a staple in any portfolio. Those guys just print.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

If you're super bullish on tokenization of the financial system, don't forget to also add $JPM stock to your portfolio.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

I say what's on my mind without apology, knowing it will often challenge a follower's deep bias. Most don't want to hear changing views, but I'm not here to capture audience.

I do it because I don't want to be allocated from a position of bias. Happy to be wrong, not to be REKT.

[lynk @lynk0x]

Investing in 2025.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

A lot of people I hear from (some I know) seem to always live on the edge when it comes to their money, moving from one idea and opportunity to the next as attention shifts between big ideas. They’re chasing the big outcome with blinders on, looking for that one big leap into riches. You only need to see the bias that develops and grows on X around themes, until it’s too late. I certainly did a lot of this in my early years.

Sometimes they get close and sometimes they temporarily achieve far more than expected. Success creates a hero complex that consumes them and the network effect of reinforcement compounds it. But because everything is always in such hectic motion, always at risk, one forgets how to formalize their win. What’s gained in one season or theme, is often quickly handed back before the theme runs its course, as all sense of discipline and logic escapes them. Then the cycle repeats, they move on to the next idea looking for that escape level wealth, and again suddenly believing it’s their only chance to make it big or a way to get it all back.

What I’ve come to appreciate later in life is that risk alone is not a wealth strategy. It's more akin to an income source. You need a compounding strategy running alongside the speculation, something relatively predictable and structurally boring. People shy away from this because it seems (on the surface) that you can’t get rich or leverage it. But without that parallel system, there’s nowhere for winnings to go except right back into the same volatile arena they came from. And without a home, your risk is just amplified to scale at another level, but without any newfound level of risk appreciation and with a belief that the idea will just keep on giving. The problem isn’t risk itself, it’s the absence of a place to crystallize the outcome of that risk and therefore it often runs it's course, the full cycle.

I think real wealth is something that is not constantly at risk. Something stable and dependable. Something that emerges at the point where volatility is converted into something that can quietly grow on its own. A mechanism that allows temporary wins to turn into a permanent foundation. Risk then becomes something that feeds the foundation versus something that is never quite yours.

[𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲 @el_crypto_prof]

#Altcoins

Wow.

TOTAL2 = 8.5-year trend line touched.

This is where the big Altseason started in 2017.
This is where the big Alteason started in 2020.

Will history repeat itself?

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

So it appears crypto markets liquidated anyone with greed and now want to grind down anyone with hope 🤣😭

Yup, it's been frustrating and this grind is longer than expected but it is what it is and this too shall pass and the spice (liquidity) must flow.

Don't Fuck This Up.

[Matthias @Matthias981]

@el_crypto_prof WHERE IS THIS BULL???

[Crypto Phoenix @ph0enixcrypt0]

#ALTSEASON officially starts today.

Next 2-3 months are going to be life changing. Don't forget to book profits.

[Carl Moon 🌙 @carlmoon]

Altcoins are about to take off. 🚀

Get ready for big gains.

[𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲 @el_crypto_prof]

#Altcoins

And now they're triggering the biggest Altcoin-Season since 2017/2021.

I told you that money would move from gold and stocks to crypto.

The biggest rotation EVER to crypto.
The charts speak for themselves.

Oh man, these are going to be good times for alts🧘‍♂️

[𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲 @el_crypto_prof]

#Altcoins

...and now we can look forward to an astronomical pump for the remainder of Q4 + Q1 2026.

Bullish 1.5-year pattern in the making.

It hasn't been easy so far, but what is coming soon will amaze many people.

Alt...season.✍️

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

STOP PANICKING - JUST WATCH HERE

The next #AltSeason starts on November 8

Every ALTSEASON begins on same day following a specific pattern

DON’T MISS YOUR CHANCE !!!

[Crypto GEMs 📈🚀 @cryptogems555]

The next #AltSeason starts TODAY 🔥

Every #Altseason starts on the same day. History repeats itself

LFG