@davidfoxjr Hey @davidfoxjr ! I can tell you that the outrage on this side is that an exception was made to a pretty ironclad rule (red card = automatic suspension) outside of the formal appeal process . Many agree that the card was harsh but that’s not the issue here. I feel bad for Balogun
4) Can Iraq remain stable if this conflict intensifies? The fragile peace that has held since the end of the US occupation and defeat of ISIS is already being strained and Teheran might see an advantage in re-igniting a conflict there.
A few thoughts on the situation in Iran from yet another person who’s never stepped foot there a 🧵:
1) There is little chance of a popular uprising succeeding without some charismatic leader AND a pre-existing organisational structure (see Arab Spring);
3) It is a bit shocking that US or Israeli intelligence did not manage to “turn” one or more senior military commanders to lead a putsch. That would have been the quickest road to regime change;
@BrusselsAirport ou quand la sécurité crée le danger: 1 heure d’attente pour passer le seuil portail ouvert de la zone (sur 5 possibles), des passagers excédés qui essayent de couper la file, un vrai risque de bousculade et ZÉRO communications de la part des autorités.
5) if there is a sliver lignins in all of this (and you really have to look hard), it’s that the system just realised how dangerous it is to rely so much on a single country. It is time for other legacy and emerging economic powers to step up in a major way.
🧵Here is my semi-educated guess about how things will break at USAID: 1) there will be a process similar to what we saw in the UK with the merging of DfID into FCDO — with a similar reduction in overall aid budgets;
4) This will completely undermine America’s ability to connect with populations living under regimes that are not aligned with the US and will deal a major blow to any opposition that seeks closer relations with the US.