Maximus_Decimus

“Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future, too.” - Marcus Aurelius

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@rev_cap Cleveland Fed reading your posts..
Production costs surge → Producers raise prices = Inflation rises, even when demand stays flat. This is cost-push inflation. Examples: oil shocks, labor shortages, the pandemic shutdown. See the breakdown: https://t.co/NOJEKJe3lP

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@GordonJohnson19 Dealer Equity Financing showing the same!

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Unemployment rate tends to exhibit momentum and it's been rising for the past several months. I thought it was odd the minutes noted Fed staff is forecasting it to decline.

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@RealEJAntoni im surprised by the large jump, but i'm waiting until post-q/e to see if we stay at these levels or head back below 400b. street games maybe be pushing it higher??

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@josephwang @RichFedResearch I agree Joe. The article was an interesting read. It didnt get much media attention. Especially "committee will likely begin another review of its longer-term goals in the coming months"

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@concodanomics What did I miss regarding Norinchukin Bank? Was there recent news?

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@josephwang tried buying a house this week.. 13 offers on the house! offered 10% above asking and missed.

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@LizAnnSonders thanks for the graph. although many response say its time for cuts. i was wondering the opposite, especially given the chart.. The 1994-1995 period, real FF were at 3.5% -4% for 4yrs+ which was the last time we had a soft landing. more inflation now, and more fiscal stimulus?

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@JonahLupton do they have a meeting in April?

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@1CoastalJournal Shouldn't banks be using BTFP more? 1 year term funding at par value not market value at a 1 year rate of 5.11%? 20bps through Repo overnight funding rates and 50-60 bp through term unsecured deposit rates?

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

Hard for Fed RRP to fall dramatically given the HUGE Money Market Fund inflows! Total money fund increased by $44bln ysty, increased by $118bln the past week to $6.267 trillion. November saw +214bln jump! While street Repo traded 5.53 ysty! Cranedata

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@LynAldenContact @dampedspring @aRishisays @josephwang @concodanomics Excellent analysis. Could you foresee the Fed buying Bills again?

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

Demand Remains Elevated Amid Volatility at May T-Bill Auctions - BBG
https://t.co/KRb39jz8Sf

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@BlacklionCTA @dampedspring @josephwang @Fullcarry @nickgiva1 4w demand is primarily driven by Treasury only (no agency and no repo) Money Funds and state/local government. Primary dealers usually drive the auction level. The new 6-week (FOMC Bill) will be the best indicator of demand from money funds.

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@ces921 Money will flow out of Fed RRP. Street Repo levels dropped 10bps and SOFR dropped 3bps this week. 3m, 6m and 4m > 60% indirects and > 3 bid-to-cover. 4mo was ATH BTC. Money market fund took in 40bln this week and hit a new record. Reserves are falling due to QT not TGA.

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@ces921 Money will flow out of Fed RRP. 45b 6-week Bills next week will have a Bid-to- over of over 4 and an indirect bid of 65%. 4-wk will see similar demand. Money funds own only 600bln of bills, they owned over 2trl in 2020

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@ces921 Money will flow out of Fed RRP. 45b 6-week Bills next week will have a Bid-to- over of over 4 and an indirect bid of 65%. 4-wk will see similar demand.

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@Gold_Mansack why did you skip over the 1994-1995 period?

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@hussmanjp "Rate hikes hurt mainly because ZIRP itself was deranged" - 100% .. FFE long-term avg since 1960 4.89%, just returned to the avg.. LT avg CPI ~ 3.8%. currently 6%... FFE may have another 100-125bps to go, if 1994-95 a good guide

[Maximus_Decimus @MaximumDecimus]

@Grit_Capital May not be because aggressive monetary hikes, but it is because of their aggressive monetary easing, combined with their fiscal policies. too long at zero. as well as their lack of oversight - he was the president of the SF Fed.