Mads

Just a guy with a dream so big.
Love study finance and the stock market.

[Livsun @L1vsun]

a quant at a prop firm showed me a 5x5 grid on a napkin

said:
> this is our entire edge. we don't predict price. we predict which box the market is in and where that box historically leads

i didn't understand it for weeks. then it clicked

never looked at a chart the same way since

grid is called a Markov Chain transition matrix. the math is from 1906, it's in every probability textbook on earth

and hedge funds use it because it asks a completely different question than retail traders ever ask

retail: will this go up or down
quant: what state is this market in, and where does this state typically go

every market lives in one of maybe 5-6 states at any given moment

tight range, volatility compression, trending with momentum, post-spike reversal, pre-breakout coil

not random labels - clusters you identify from actual data using volatility, volume, and momentum readings stacked together

once you have the states, you build the matrix:
P(state 2 -> state 4) = 73%
P(state 4 -> state 1) = 61%
P(state 1 -> state 3) = 68%

each cell is a historical probability. now when the market is in state 2, you're not guessing

you're betting on 73% historical completion. you size it with Kelly. you take the trade when the math says to, not when it feels right

i built this on BTC using 2 years of 4-hour data. identified 5 states

one i labeled "volatility compression below 20-day mean for 6+ consecutive candles" transitioned to a directional move above 1.8 ATR in 71% of cases

average reward/risk on those trades: 5.4

that's not prediction. that's reading a probability table the market keeps filling in for you every single day

the part that should bother you: the data to build this is free. the framework is in any quant textbook

python to implement it is maybe 200 lines

what Renaissance Technologies has that you don't isn't secret data or proprietary signals

it's this framework applied to higher-resolution data with more sophisticated state definitions

you're not missing information

you're asking the wrong question every single time you open a chart

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@antmillionsbot Yes

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@cryptofergani Okay

[Jim Scalpert @JimScalpert]

Going to show you the exact moment sellers tipped their hand & the spot I jumped in right at the beginning of the liquidation on Thursday. 🔊 ⬆️ #NQ_F #SPY

[Greg @g_donahue3]

The market's reaction to the Trump tweet today. A clear example of a market that is worth spending money in. Level to level, the market gave us eight 15 point rotations down to our flatten zone. That’s 8 opportunities to initiate and add to positions. Trading is not about catching every wiggle. Its about maximizing the trades you do catch. This was a great day for many of us in @ThePAXGroup @paxtrader777

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@Adixmz Which platform do you use to short on?

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

The greatest Bitcoin explanation of all time.

[Jordan Walker @JayW132]

Bitcoin is a cheat code.

Here are 15 #bitcoin websites that are so valuable they feel illegal to know. [updated]

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@ChrisDMacro So what happened?

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@mrRealHotDog @gmgnai Did you get help?

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@eliasjg0 How many trades? And is this the hole day of trading or only at one set of time.? Nice

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@itsonlymoney12 Let me know if you want some trainings programs sir. Thanks for the content.

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@itsonlymoney12 Lets go thanks!

[MoneyTradeEdge | Better Thinking Better Trading @MoneyTradeEdge]

Trading rewards time.

Year 1: 100 systems, 100 failures, accounts lost.

Year 2-3-4: Breakeven, failures, mistakes, emotional pain.

Year 5+: $300/day, disciplined and fearless trader.

You can't become a successful trader if you don't love the process.

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@eliasjg0 @orderflowlabs Still in a tradin discord room?

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@eliasjg0 That is me Rolf… did just notice you twitter account keep the good work. Nice

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@vwaptrader1 @Microefutures Hey Sir, Watch out

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@LanceBeggs Thanks lance. Good choice, family first, then the time is on, please let us know if you shut down the website, i think the community will keep it up! I'm willing to help. Great post.

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@rovercrc Crypto Rover roams free,
Sniffing out tokens for me,
Dogecoin makes him wag,
Investment gains, no drag.

[Mads @McbmDenmark]

@vwaptrader1 @Microefutures https://t.co/M0Xjx39d11

Hey sir, what would you call this huge size suddenly, and a spike in the price?