M D-B

[Patrick Christys @PatrickChristys]

Absolute suicidal empathy - women from a charity group helping young men invade Britain, putting countless women over here at risk.

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@JamesPearceLFC @JamesPearceLFC we have no centre backs. Is this really a priority position.

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@indykaila @LFC This is poor from Henderson. Legacy diminished.

[4z4 🧙‍♂️ @filmeclate]

KAVINSKY Live @ Social Club

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@BBCWorld Shit. Loved his music

[Jennifer Sey @JenniferSey]

Masculinity isn't toxic. It's necessary.

Here's to XY.

From the only brand that knows the difference between men and women.

@xx_xyathletics

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 WOW! President Trump just announced he will be bringing this 16YO lifeguard to the WHITE HOUSE to give him a High Civilian Honor, after @EricTrump called for it

THAT is a HERO 👏🏻

"We’re going to bring this heroic young man, and his family, into the White House with, perhaps, the boy he saved, to give him a High Civilian Honor. Very brave, he deserves it!" 🇺🇸

[Eric Trump @EricTrump]

Give this 16-year-old lifeguard the highest civilian honor. This is truly the best of America! Well done!

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@RachelD1892 He’s an absolute dip shit

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@ZackPolanski He took 5million because the State would provide him with close protection despite valid threats to life and given what happened to Charlie Kirk. So someone who wants to ensure his safety did what the government wouldn’t - provide security to an elected official.

[Evan @EvanWritesOnX]

Goldman's base case for oil is $80 by year end, with $120 next year only if Hormuz stays shut.

JPMorgan is at ~$75 and calls a protracted disruption unlikely.

Neither are pricing for a regional war. They are arguing about how long a negotiation takes.

On Thursday oil crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since May, and gold fell 2.4% the same day.

It fell on the very day the war gained a second chokepoint at the red sea, and the US threatened its biggest attack yet.

The dollar hasn't moved.

So the stress lives basically only where the physical disruption lives; where tanker insurance is at 7.5% to 10% of a ship's value per Hormuz run.

Nothing has changed.

Capital has quarantined this 'war' inside the oil market, and it has kept it there through 5 months, 2 ceasefires and every escalation headline since February.

Every economy in this war is running out of road at its own speed.

Iran's currency is near 1.9 million to the dollar, inflation is near 89%, its oil license is cancelled, and China, the only customer left, cut purchases roughly in half rather than fight US banking sanctions.

The American president is at 36% approval with petrol near $4 a gallon and a House that just voted to end the war.

Saudi Arabia has a decade of investment plans that need quiet seas, which is why its first strikes on Yemen spared the port Yemen's economy depends on.

The one leader whose position genuinely improves with a bigger war is Netanyahu, facing an October election he is currently losing, and Trump is intentionally keeping him out of this for precisely that reason.

When every major player's dominant strategy points at settlement, the strikes are about the terms.

These terms have a date.

The June deal gave ships 60 days of free passage through Hormuz, that window ends around August 17, when a transit fee becomes the default after day 60 unless both sides agree otherwise.

Iran rejected two ceasefire offers this week because a truce that reopens the strait before that date would surrender its main bargaining position weeks before it matures, and with its economic options gone, the strait is the position.

Both sides kept negotiating through mediators the entire time they were firing. The strikes are how the final terms are being argued.

The militia network Iran spent 40 years building around Israel is gone.

Hezbollah silent through the entire war, Hamas 'finished' as a fighting force, Syria's weapons corridor closed, Iraq's militias reduced to background noise.

The Houthis blockade is aimed narrowly at Saudi shipping, justified by a purely Yemeni grievance, not Gaza, not Iran or Israel.

So the remnants of the war machine are generating the price that the peace-seekers will collect.

When the deal lands, the Houthis will stand down in exchange for Yemen's ports reopening, and the network exits this war one piece smaller than it entered.

There's going to be a deal around August 17-24. Maybe earlier.

Both straits reopen, the transit fee survives but is run by Oman under a scheme co-designed with Iran.

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@6Voodoo Two of the guys I worked with posted some back to the UK

[Winston Marshall @MrWinMarshall]

The Fabian society and the destruction of Britain - watch

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@piersmorgan Correct

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@UltraLinx I drove by it last week. Looks great. 👍 Fav modern Ferrari. Sounds great

[Konstantin Kisin @KonstantinKisin]

Congratulations, you taxed the rich. Now half a million people have to pay more so you can feel good.

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@SkyNews Guy has Principles and a moral compass.

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@jaglancy Knocking over port a loos since Nam

[M D-B @Mdb583]

@Lunaria_40 16

[Matt Casey 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇬🇧 @MattCas04807118]

Campbell totally destroyed and it’s glorious!👏👏👏