Emmanuel

Macro Investment Manager | Finance & Economics | @Wharton & @ColumbiaGSAS Alumnus | Independent & Pragmatist | Views my own...

[Emmanuel @Media_Monopsony]

@MarkGutman9 PIIGS would've much liked that route 12 years ago.

[PiQ @PiQMarkets]

⚠️ The ARK Innovation Fund has lost around 67% year to date, more than tripling the decline of the S&P 500 index.

It’s the worst-performing among all 537 U.S. mid-cap growth funds and put it near the bottom of all U.S. equity funds.

- Full story at https://t.co/g05Mh4Kt60

[Monetary Wonk @MonetaryWonk]

None of what happened at FTX was a “crypto” problem. It was a combination of poor risk management and possibly fraud, which demonstrates exactly why a decentralized system, with self custody, is useful.

[PiQ @PiQMarkets]

🇸🇪 Sweden’s Free-Falling Property Market Triggers Worst Economic Slump in EU

🔹 Home values in Sweden are now down 15% from their peak

🔹 Commercial real estate has been identified as the main risk

via https://t.co/wXVagA44VK

https://t.co/70Ki8VRejo

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

There's proposals going around for central banks to lift their inflation targets. Maybe these proposals have some academic merit, but they're totally tone-deaf. Inflation is high and it's massively unpopular. Revising up inflation targets in this environment is a non-starter...

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

The auto industry is experiencing a worse sales crash than 08 but let’s ignore that

[Alf @MacroAlf]

*ADP Report: Job Creation Slowed by Most Since January 2021*

Stocks rallying on the back of this, as if a weaker labor market is something to be bullish about.

In 2023, the biggest revelation for many investors is going to be that...

...bad news is actually bad news.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Some folks think recessions get fully 'priced in' for stocks well ahead of the actual decline in activity. In reality equities bottom after a recession begins, often much later.

Dec 2007 Start - Eq bottom Mar 09
Mar 01 - Eq bottom Oct 02, but very close again in Mar 03.

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

No thanks to what the Fed is giving. Everyone’s excited because the FOMC is going to slow the pace after a steady a diet of 75 beepers? So, going 50 basis points (and more!) into the most inverted yield curve since October 1981 is reason to be festive?

#RosenbergResearch

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

-20-25% EPS growth for 2023 looks fair

[WALL ST JESUS (FZN) @WallStJesus]

🏠 deteriorating via MS

[Emmanuel @Media_Monopsony]

@GreekFire23 The second you increase the inflation target, CB credibility drops, and inflation expectations rise. CB then needs to tighten real rates that much harder to compensate and bring it back down, even to the new, higher target. I'd love to see them try.

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

#NEW Falling home prices erased $1.3 trillion (7.6%) in home equity in Q3.

That marks the largest quarterly dollar decline on record.

It’s also the largest on a percentage basis since 2009.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

We have a housing supply problem. We had an even worse housing supply problem in 2019.

Cumulative residential investment since 2020Q1 has been $83b higher than CBO had projected.

The reason house prices/rent went up so much and are now coming down is about demand.

[Alf @MacroAlf]

A big picture macro chart to always bear in mind.

As total economic debt increases over time, the level of real yields at which the economy can remain functional becomes lower and lower.

Public & Private Debt (Orange) =🔺
Real Yields (Blue, Inverted) = 🔻

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

And that is in nominal terms.

[Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig]

Complaints about the Treasury market not functioning seem to surface mostly when yields are going up. And the ones complaining are typically sitting on lots duration.

[Emmanuel @Media_Monopsony]

@theintercept @kenklippenstein @lhfang "The Hunter Biden laptop story was only the most high-profile example of law enforcement agencies pressuring technology firms..." Speaking of...has The Intercept issued a formal apology to its co-founder @ggreenwald?

https://t.co/45085TzGlo

[Emmanuel @Media_Monopsony]

@izakaminska Yes reason was ignored in favor of panic, in addition to a lot of scientific data that went against the political narrative. The poorest minorities were the most affected, those such political narratives claimed to defend.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Studies find lockdowns were ineffective in reducing mortality. It was all for nothing.

And they bankrupted small businesses and harmed the mental health of a generation of children.

This huge disaster happened in part because those who disagreed were censored.