Mediterranean Cyclone Centre

We’re amateur meteorologists studying medicanes and eurocanes.

Unofficial / Inoffiziell / ανεπίσημα / ufficioso
DB: @MEDIFIND1

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[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

60H 01/1200Z 33.6N, 25.4E 20 KT 25 MPH
72H 02/0000 34.0N, 27.8E 15 KT 20 MPH...REMNANT LOW

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

30 Oct 2021 | 0000 UTC | 02M/GLORIA - ADVISORY 9

...GLORIA MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM SICILY...

Current location: 36.2°N, 16.2°E
Maximum sustained winds: 50 kt/60 mph/93 kph
Minimum central pressure: 998 mbar
Moving: SSE at 2 kt

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
As expected, Gloria did not move much today - it is still within 30 nautical miles of its previous 12z and 00z synoptic points. It remains a mature medicane, and is probably still near peak strength, but continuous weakening is expected from here.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

INIT 30/0000Z 36.2N, 16.2E 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 35.4, 17.0E 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 34.0N, 18.4E 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 33. 3N, 21.2E 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 32.9N, 23.2E 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST OF LIBYA

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

but interests in eastern Libya should be prepared for periods of heavy rain around the time of closest approach.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

Gloria is held at 50 kt for this advisory based previous reports and continuity, but this may be generous. Impacts in Sicily and Malta will start to wind down over the next 12-18 hours,

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

The convection has thinned somewhat since the last update, when it was already weak, but this is not surprising in a Mediterranean-type cyclone.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Gloria's convection remains well-established, and strong banding features are present in all quadrants. The eye-feature remains but is less clear than it was.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

This change allows Gloria to live for a bit longer, but conditions are not forecast to improve, and no further impacts are projected before its demise well short of Cyprus.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

The big question is whether Gloria will reach Libya. The model consensus now suggests that any landfall in Libya will be glancing and brief, and that the decaying vortex of Gloria will move toward Cyprus with an increase in forward speed.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

The short term motion is now to the SSE and a SE motion was expected around this time, so it would appear that Gloria has begun its jaunt across the Mediterranean to Libya.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

48H 31/1200Z 33. 3N, 18.0E 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 32.6N, 19.8E 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST OF LIBYA
72H 01/1200Z 32.9N, 22.5E 15 KT 20 MPH...DISSIPATED

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

29 Oct 2021 | 1200 UTC | 02M/GLORIA - ADVISORY 8

...GLORIA STRENGTHENS WHILE WANDERING OFF SICILY...

Current location: 36.5°N, 16.1°E
Maximum sustained winds: 50 kt/60 mph/93 kph
Minimum central pressure: 998 mbar
Moving: N at 2 kt

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Gloria has not moved much since the last advisory, and is not expected to move much today. The storm is now a mature medicane, and is probably near its peak strength.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

INIT 29/1200Z 36.5N, 16.1E 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 36.8N, 16.2E 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 36.2, 15.7E 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 34.7N, 16.7E 35 KT 40 MPH

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

Gloria is upgraded to a 50 kt subtropical storm for this advisory based on a ship report and ASCAT. Updates will be forthcoming as new data comes in. Interests in Sicily, Malta, and Libya should be prepared for periods of high wind and heavy rain over the forecast period.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Gloria's convection remains well-established, and strong banding features are present in all quadrants. The eye-feature remains but is less clear than it was. The convection remains somewhat weak, but this is not surprising in a Mediterranean-type cyclone.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

Therefore, the forecast still calls for dissipation by 72h. If Gloria does not make landfall in Libya, it may live slightly longer, but conditions are not forecast to improve, and no further impacts are projected before its demise.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

The models are suggesting that Gloria may brush the coast of Libya or only make a slight landfall. However, Gloria is expected to be quite weak by the time it arrives in Libyan waters, and any land interaction at all will likely lead to dissipation.

[Mediterranean Cyclone Centre @Medicane_Centre]

Some models are showing a very near pass to Sicily in the next 24 hours, but Gloria is expected to remain offshore. By 12z tomorrow, Gloria will be weakening and accelerating SE toward Libya.