Mental Modelist

Better decisions through mental models.

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

https://t.co/mwRnMCoD3v

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

“Futurism is an art of reperception. It means recognizing that life will change, must change, and has changed, and it suggests how and why. It shows that old perceptions have lost their validity, while new ones are possible.” - Bruce Sterling @bruces

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

The Power of Assumptions

https://t.co/WnD4BNu5Wm

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

Creating your own #mentalmodels

https://t.co/LNoSBxISDy

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.
- @AnnieDuke #DecisionMaking

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

Bounded Rationality

Coined by Herbert Simon, it challenges the idea of humans as perfectly rational decision-makers. Instead, we use mental shortcuts and rules of thumb to navigate complex choices.

Our decisions aren't perfect. Limited information, time, & knowledge mean we often "satisfice" - settle for good enough - rather than optimize. Key to understanding real-world choice-making.

We might choose the first satisfactory option rather than search exhaustively. Or we simplify problems to make them manageable, potentially missing important nuances.

Understanding bounded rationality helps design better policies, user interfaces, and AI systems. It's about working with human limitations, not against them.
#decisionmaking #ai #herbertsimon

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

The rhizome model of knowledge:

A non-hierarchical, interconnected network where ideas grow in all directions, like roots. No central point, just endless connections and possibilities.

Derived from the botanical concept of a rhizome, it is an alternative way to understand knowledge and learning. This concept was popularized by the French philosophers Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari in their book "A Thousand Plateaus" (1980). The rhizome model contrasts with the traditional, hierarchical, and tree-like structures of knowledge.

#Epistemology #RhizomaticLearning #Deleuze

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing. @AnnieDuke

#decisionmaking

[Mental Modelist @MentalModelist]

Synchronicity therefore consists of two factors: a) An unconscious image comes into consciousness either directly (i.e., literally) or indirectly (symbolized or suggested) in the form of a dream, idea, or premonition. b) An objective situation coincides with this content. -Jung

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

The Time Dimension of Decision Making

✅ Optimal - short term win - long term win
✅Delayed gratification - short term loss - long term win
❌ Unsustainable - short term win - long term loss
❌ Avoidable - short term loss - long term loss

#decisionmaking #gametheory

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

Finding a problem to solve: a framework to find your passion #startup project https://t.co/3vRoTDNLYO

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

How to Use the Mental Models of Pruning and Refactoring to Simplify Your Life https://t.co/Pot6TkFgmX

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

An Introduction to Mental Models https://t.co/9AwYZe4L7M

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

Finding your Ikigai

https://t.co/rF1yZ2CxxD

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

The Surprising Reason You Should Think Twice Before Changing Anything #mentalmodels

https://t.co/NIcAQBBVUp

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

An Introduction to Mental Models
https://t.co/tPyox8Z8fn

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

Work on solving one problem that matters (to you).

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

Supercharge your decision making

The Pugh Matrix is a decision-making tool that helps you systematically evaluate different options against a set of criteria. It's particularly useful when you have multiple potential solutions and need to choose the best one based on specific factors.

How the Pugh Matrix works

1. Define Criteria:

Start by determining the essential factors or requirements that your solution needs to fulfill (e.g., cost, ease of use, safety, features, etc.).

Assign weights to each criterion if some are more critical than others.

2. List Alternatives:

Clearly identify the different possible solutions or options you are considering.

3. Establish a Baseline:

Select one of your solutions to be the "baseline" or reference point. This is often the current situation or a standard option.

4. Create the Matrix:

Draw a table with columns for each of your criteria and rows for your alternatives. Include a row for the baseline option.

5. Compare and Score:

For each alternative and criterion, compare it to the baseline using symbols: + (Better): If the alternative is superior to the baseline for that criterion. Add 1 point S (Same): If the alternative is equivalent to the baseline. - (Worse): If the alternative is inferior to the baseline. Subtract 1 point

6. Calculate Totals:
Count the number of +, S, and - symbols for each alternative.
Multiply the scores by the weights (if you assigned any) and sum them to get the total weighted score for each option.

7. Analyze and Decide:

The alternative(s) with the highest total score(s) represent the most promising solutions based on your criteria.

Example

Analysis

Option C scored highest with 7 points. Based on this, Option C might be favored because it is less expensive than Option A and has more features than the baseline B.

Benefits of using a Pugh Matrix

Clarity: It provides a structured approach for making decisions.

Objectivity: Helps reduce biases by focusing on defined criteria.

Collaboration: Can be used as a team exercise to gain different perspectives.

Documentation: Provides a record of how you reached your decision.

The Pugh Matrix offers a powerful tool to simplify and streamline the decision-making process, allowing you to evaluate multiple options objectively and systematically. #DecisionMaking #mentalmodel #gatherthink

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

Building habits based on explore (research, learning) / exploit (practice, doing) #mentalmodel:

Beginner: 80% exploration, 20% exploitation
Expert: 30% exploration, 70% exploitation
innovating: 60% exploration, 40% exploitation
producing: 30% exploration, 70% exploitation

[Manny Otero @chessbuzz]

An LLM Confidence Scoring System
#ai #LLM #ChatGPT

https://t.co/OG3MSizXNM