The Mercyicy Letter

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Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement on a new Strait of Hormuz shipping route aimed at protecting both countries' interests, as Tehran continues to blame the US for the strait's closure.

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Semiconductor stocks posted their worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis, as investor doubts over the sustainability of AI spending unleashed sharp volatility across global chipmakers.

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OPEC+ approved a 188,000 b/d increase for September, finalizing the theoretical reversal of its 2023 cuts with additional barrels potentially coming once the Middle East conflict subsides.

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Qatari LNG tanker hit by projectile in Strait of Hormuz; temporary blackout, no injuries or spill but the attack raised fresh supply disruption fears.

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Iran says it has drawn up plans to hit key oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Israel if the US or Israel launches fresh attacks amid reports Trump is weighing military options.

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Spain installs 500m floating barrier in Ceuta after mass migrant surge leaves 67 dead; EU leaders call emergency migration meeting.

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Donald Trump warned the US could face a migrant crisis like Spain's Ceuta (thousands crossed from Morocco) if Democrats win. He used this to criticize opponents and link it to future US challenges.

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BREAKING: A drifting SpaceX rocket is on a high speed collision course with the Moon, with the impact expected to be visible from the eastern US, Canada, and much of South America.

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JUST IN: Iran hits two tankers under US escort at Hormuz, forces four others to alter course IRGC cites "unauthorised route."

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Visa announced layoffs affecting 2,600 employees, 7% of its global workforce as part of an efficiency push

The cuts will mainly target technology and product teams while the company invests in AI and other growth areas.

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Wall Street staged a comeback as chipmakers rallied 8% and the Nasdaq 100 added 3%. Microsoft surged 14%, while Oracle jumped on an AI partnership.

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Microsoft eyes history with $490 billion pop in market value

Shares of the Redmond, Washington-based company soared as much as 17%, adding $490 billion to its market capitalization as of 12:55 p.m. in New York.

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Airbus posted higher profit driven by plane deliveries and maintained its targets

CEO Guillaume Faury said the company is ramping up across all businesses to meet growing demand for both civil and military solutions.

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Three Fed officials dissent in favour of rate hike

Three Federal Reserve policymakers voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged, preferring a quarter-percentage-point increase. The dissents underscore growing divisions within the central bank over the inflation outlook.

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US Fed rate news live: US Fed leaves rates unchanged for fifth straight meeting

The US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5 percent-3.75 percent, extending its pause for a fifth consecutive policy meeting. The decision was widely expected by markets.

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JUST IN: Fed keeps interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%; three policymakers dissent

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Oil jumps 7% on escalating West Asia airstrikes

Brent futures were up $6.16, or 7.33%, at $90.25 a barrel by 11:36 a.m. ET (1536 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $5.40, or 6.81%, to $84.65 a barrel

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JUST IN: US-owned LNG tanker hit by drones at Egypt's Damietta Port during discharge; vessels relocated, port to resume operations.

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Dow down 900 points ahead of Warsh press conference

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, the stocks fell on Wednesday, as oil prices spiked.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 902 points lower and the S&P 500 shed 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.4%.

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US Fed rate news live: Warsh stands to make market history if Fed opts for a rate hike

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has a chance to make market history if he and his colleagues choose to raise interest rates on Wednesday.

Overnight interest rate swaps imply about a 38% chance of a quarter point increase, with the remainder of the odds favoring no change. Since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2008, the Fed has never raised rates when swaps assigned less than a 60% probability to such a move.

Looking further back using fed funds futures, Bank of America strategists found the central bank has never delivered a hike with market implied odds below 60% since at least 1994.