I've tracked every announced US merger since 2013.
The spread tells you what the market thinks. The date tells you when it has to decide.
Every Monday I flag the deals with dates that matter this month.
Track 2 free → https://t.co/8t18FFI5ug
Four shareholder votes Thursday: $MKTX, $DV, and $TCBK and $FHB voting on the same deal from opposite sides. Vote days cluster because proxy timelines do, not because anyone planned it that way.
$MG’s go-shop expires Tuesday and $LFCR’s closes Wednesday. Two windows shutting in two days. The base rate on go-shops turning up a better bid is low enough that the exception is the whole reason anyone watches.
$EQT is buying $RRC at 0.987 shares. All-stock, so there’s no financing to arrange and no cash spread to quote — just a ratio, two shareholder votes, and whatever the agencies make of Appalachian gas. Company guides Q1 2027.
$NATH holders vote Friday on the Smithfield deal. One of the smaller votes on the board this week, and the only one most people will recognize by name.
$ITGR holders vote Wednesday on the KKR deal. Sponsor deals rarely die at the vote; the financing was committed long before anyone mailed a proxy. The date that matters is the one after it.
$HUN's Canadian clock could run out Monday. Two US chemical companies, and one of the gates is in Ottawa — jurisdiction follows revenue, not headquarters.
$BZH holders approved the deal yesterday. Closing is set for Tuesday — three business days from vote to completion, which only happens when every other condition was cleared well before the proxy went out.
$ACVA could complete Thursday if the refiled HSR clock runs out Tuesday. Third straight week on our board — a tender extension, then a refiling, and the close date moved with each one.
$ROKU and $FOXA both hold votes Wednesday. Two sets of holders, one deal, and the vote is still the only gate with a published date. The conditions behind it don't have one.
$KVUE's EU review could expire Tuesday. Phase 1 runs 25 working days, not calendar days, so a Brussels holiday moves your closing date. That's most of why this one is hard to pin down.
Nothing scheduled Monday — Columbus Day. Stocks trade, the bond market doesn't, and the agencies are closed, so any clock that would have run out today runs out Tuesday instead. Fourteen dated events start Tuesday.
$LCII pulled and refiled its HSR. New thirty days, expiring Friday, no second request.(but possible) Refiling is the polite way to say the agency wanted more time — and both sides preferred it to the alternative.
$ACVA's tender expires Wednesday with HSR still outstanding. Tenders don't close ahead of the antitrust clock, so expect an extension and treat the tendered count as the only new information in it.
$NATL's UK undertakings in lieu are due Wednesday. A US deal where the binding constraint is whether a British regulator accepts the remedy on offer — and the only place that date is published is a CMA case page.
$WBD could complete Tuesday. Monday was the last day it traded, so there's no spread left to watch — just the consideration, and whether it pays out when they said it would.
Monday is the record date for the $WBD warrant distribution, and the last day the stock trades. Own it Monday and you're on the list; buy it Tuesday and there's nothing to buy.
$AES could clear Chile on Thursday. A US infrastructure deal gated on a South American regulator that publishes no countdown. That date doesn't exist anywhere until someone sits down and works it out.
$ACVA's tender expires Wednesday with a 50.1% minimum condition. Tenders rarely fail for lack of interest. They fail when the holders sitting on the float decide the price is wrong. Watch the count, not the clock.
$NSTS holders vote Tuesday on the First National Bank of Brookfield deal. Nobody writes research notes on community bank mergers. The vote clears anyway, on the same calendar as the billion-dollar ones.