TheMerrittocracy

I'm a former Navy Helicopter pilot and teacher, turned data scientist. My wife has always teased me about my sports takes, so now that we're almost empty nester

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

ESPN's Mike Greenberg says if Arch Manning were in this draft, he'd go first overall over Fernando Mendoza. "Not even close," Orlovsky claims. We see it differently — the data gap between these QBs is massive, just not in the direction the talking heads think. https://t.co/WV4nMvCoX7

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@ChrisBHaynes Naz Reid plus seven picks/swaps for LaMelo is Minnesota betting half-court creation was the missing piece. I get the logic.

But the playoff question is real: can you hide Ball defensively when every good opponent is going to drag him into action possession after possession?

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@ShamsCharania That is a big AAV for a guard opponents can hunt in May and June. Cap growth helps, but it doesn’t turn a playoff defensive target into a max-level problem solver. Great third/fourth guy. Risky price if he’s being paid like more than that.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@AdamSchefter @marcraimondi Man, the cope is strong with Falcons fans. They all rush to say Pitts’ been maximizing his performance with poor QB play. Did a change happen that I’m unaware of. 45 yo Penix and Tua don’t change that. Sorry Penix’s knees are 45 yo.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@AdamSchefter @tyschmit I read this as proof that cross-sport ownership doesn’t diversify judgment, it scales bad process. When both franchises move off cornerstone stars in short succession, that’s an organizational philosophy problem, not coincidence.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@AdamSchefter Pitts got paid like the breakout already happened. Four years in, he has one 1,000-yard season, 10 career TDs, and three straight seasons under 700 yards. That’s not buying production, it’s buying the original scouting report.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@PolymarketHoops False. 5th seed in the East.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@ShamsCharania @Jordan_Reid 3 6’9”-plus guys who do nearly the same things on the court. I thought Pat Riley knew roster construction.
Welcome to the 6th seed.
https://t.co/5Fvu0f1hjn

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@AdamSchefter @ShamsCharania So, Miami will have 3 guys who nearly the same player. Who are the shooters?
https://t.co/5Fvu0f1hjn

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@espn @ShamsCharania And the Wizards intend to stay irrelevant for those same 4 years.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

@BobHarig Clark has been more than a hot putter this week: +6.2 putting, +4.7 approach, positive in every SG category.
That’s why Scheffler’s path is so narrow. He doesn’t just need Clark to cool off. He needs to beat him badly enough tee-to-green to make six shots matter.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

How do you build a six-shot lead at the U.S. Open?

Wyndham Clark through 54 holes:

+16.18 SG total
+6.19 putting
+4.72 approach
+3.10 around the green
+2.16 off the tee

Positive everywhere, lethal on the greens.

Our model gives him an 81% chance to finish it.

https://t.co/WV4nMvCoX7

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

Scottie Scheffler doing Scottie Scheffler things.
Started the day fighting uphill from the AM side of the draw. Now he’s -1 on the round, +4.4 SG through 15 holes, and back inside the top 5.
The man doesn’t chase leaderboards. He stalks them.

More on the draw that shaped this leaderboard: https://t.co/KUNL8UmPNT

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

Scottie Scheffler doing Scottie Scheffler things.
Started the day fighting uphill from the AM side of the draw. Now he’s -1 on the round, +4.4 SG through 15 holes, and back inside the top 5.
The man doesn’t chase leaderboards. He stalks them.
More on the draw that shaped this leaderboard: https://t.co/KUNL8UmPNT

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

Matt Fitzpatrick started Saturday T2. Through 8 holes, he’s +4 on the day and losing 2.7 strokes to the field.

The Thursday draw gave him a runway. Shinnecock is taking it back on Moving Day.

Full piece: https://t.co/GYS2RQpFUS

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

Full piece: https://t.co/GYS2RQpFUS

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

Everyone's talking about Wyndham Clark's lead. The real story is how Thursday's tee times decided the leaderboard before anyone teed off.

https://t.co/lDfodXCXtd

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

Saturday's forecast shows the same split brewing again. Moving Day might have already happened when the tee sheet dropped Thursday.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

Full piece: https://t.co/GYS2RQpFUS

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

The USGA set up Shinnecock for 40 mph winds Thursday afternoon. The wind never showed. PM wave starters feasted on easier conditions while the AM wave fought the course the USGA actually wanted.

[TheMerrittocracy @Merrittocratic]

Saturday's forecast shows the same split brewing again. Moving Day might have already happened when the tee sheet dropped Thursday.