My belief, because of what I've seen, is RU hasn't trained or practiced these kinds of maneuvers.
Based on what we've seen, the RU "maneuver" capability, skill of their force, C2 & log support are all extremely weak.
And, they haven't tried this in the Donbas in 8 years. 10/
A bunch of RU generals have been writing about this technique over the last few years.
Here's an interesting piece: https://t.co/jbFyYbynsx
Problem: writing about and doing are two different things. 11/
But, UKR must also find ways to be more mobile for this new phase.
First, they'll need very good intelligence about where RU forces are moving.
Then, tanks they've "acquired" from RU and those provided by NATO nations will help. 15/
UA will continue to rely on technological advanced weapons to close any gaps on the front line, and focus on defeating RU's artillery.
They will use territorials and UA to thwart RU advances from the N & S "shoulders" of the Donbas, to ensure no encirclement. 16/
UKR must defend their own supply line, interfere with RU C2, logistics, and movement...
...while also conducting other unconventional operations behind RU front lines.
This 🧵 is about the "front line" tactical fights in the Donbas.
UKR must still deal with civilian assistance, cataloguing war crimes, fighting RU assaults in Crimea, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, etc everywhere else.
Donbas will be a battle of attrition.
UKR is prepared for it.17/17
@MarkHertling This presupposes that the Ukrainians get the fighter jets and anti-ship missiles they've requested to suppress Russian support for a breakout of the encircled forces.
https://t.co/PaU5QhViPA
So, how does UKR counter these offensive actions?
1. be strong everywhere (tough to do)
2. have a good reserve (possible, but also tough)
3. be able to move quickly to counter any attacks.
"Interior lines" I discussed in another thread helps w/ 2 & 3, because of distance 14/
BTW, before we leave breakthrough, Brusilov & his followers say RU must use massive artillery on enemy positions OR use *battlefield tactical nuclear weapons* to create a breakthrough when gaps are found by the RIF.
Again, theoretical...but that scares the crap out of me. 13/
Also, I'm convinced RU will NOT be able to get the same forces they used in the Kyiv and Kharkiv offensives back into the fight anytime soon, no matter what others say.
Those forces are depleted. Mauled.
Some may fight, but they likely won't be effective. 12/
⚡️Russian troops forcibly transport Mariupol hospital staff, patients to occupied territories in eastern Ukraine.
The staff and patients have been transported from Mariupol's Hospital No. 4, the city council said on April 7.
Lukashenko denies that he is an accomplice of an aggressor and demands to be part of negotiations.
Citizen Lukashenko, go and read the UN definition of an aggressor which includes allowing the territory to be used by another state to attack. You are part of the Bucha massacre
Nesmíme dopustit, aby válka na Ukrajině trvala tak dlouho jako v případě Sarajeva.
A musíme udělat všechno pro to, aby se Vladimir Putin a všichni odpovědní za válečné zločiny ze svých činů zodpovídali.
I just signed an Executive Order that directs federal agencies to continue doing everything in their power to expand the quality and affordability of health coverage.
Před 30 lety začalo obléhání Sarajeva. Trvalo téměř 4 roky a zemřelo při něm přes 11 tisíc lidí.
Podobné válečné hrůzy se dějí právě teď na východ od nás.
V Mariupolu a dalších městech jsou vinou brutální ruské invaze uvězněny tisíce civilistů, mnoho jich zemřelo.