The only thing stopping a brutal unwinding of the carry trade is the weakening of the yen, which is providing a buffer for now.
But for how long?
The higher yields go, the weaker the buffer becomes.
Hence, the BOJ is tentative in raising rates because it will strengthen the yen, and that would set off a brutal unwinding of the carry trade.
🚨 A blockade of Iran’s ports would lead to a global energy crisis, and the most affected countries would be:
China: Higher oil prices and disruption of industrial activity
Japan: Total dependence on imported energy
South Korea: Impact on industry and exports
India: Rising inflation and higher energy costs
Conclusion:
The strongest impact would be a global rise in oil prices and disruption of the entire Asian economy.
🚨BREAKING: President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective immediately.
The US Navy will begin blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait, while also starting operations to destroy the sea mines Iran laid in the waterway.
Trump said any vessel that has paid a toll to Iran will be intercepted in international waters, calling Iran's toll system "world extortion."
The core sticking point in the failed Islamabad talks was Iran's refusal to give up its nuclear ambitions, which Trump called the "only point that really mattered."
Trump added that the US military is fully "locked and loaded" and warned that any Iranian who fires at US forces or civilian vessels "will be blown to hell."
Oil and global markets open will be absolutely wild.
🚨 BREAKING
IRAN WARNS: IF US MOVES AGAINST THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BAB EL-MANDEB WILL BE NEXT.
TOGETHER, THEY HANDLE OVER 25% OF GLOBAL OIL FLOWS, WORTH ~$3 BILLION PER DAY.
THIS IS HOW A GLOBAL TRADE SHOCK STARTS…
THIS DOESN’T LOOK GOOD FOR MARKETS 👀
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US President Donald Trump renews threat to strike Iranian infrastructure.
"I would hate to do it, but it's their water, their desalinization plans, their electric generating plants, which are very easy to hit. We could have them all down, and I mean down like you couldn’t have electricity for 10 years."
JUST IN:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is raising its demands in negotiations that are currently taking place in Pakistan
Iran is calling for recognition of its right to impose transit fees and exclusive security control over the Strait of Hormuz,
They are also rejecting any American presence or joint management of the world's most important shipping lane.
Breaking:
Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan are over
The two sides were unable to reach an agreement
Iran continues to view some of the U.S. demands as unreasonable
A second round of negotiations will take place tomorrow, during which both sides will attempt to resolve their differences
Vice President JD Vance gives an update in Pakistan:
"The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon."
BREAKING: STATEMENT FROM THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER REGARDING NEGOTIATIONS
"In the forthcoming negotiations, if the American delegation demonstrates a genuine commitment to reaching a substantive agreement and acknowledges the rights of the Iranian nation, they will find a reciprocal readiness from our side to finalize an agreement.
However, in the ongoing dispute, we have unequivocally demonstrated that should they intend to use negotiations as a mere charade or a deceptive maneuver, we are fully prepared to safeguard our rights through divine faith and the inherent capabilities of our nation."
Speaking with reporters, Trump said the US will have the Strait of Hormuz 'open fairly soon' as a US team led by Vance heads to Pakistan for negotiations https://t.co/SLOaEDvltD
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BREAKING: President Donald Trump spoke about upcoming US-Iran talks in Pakistan, saying any deal must eliminate nuclear weapons and adding “one way or the other it’s going well.”
He also said the US will not allow tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump’s bombing campaign against Iran is yielding a windfall for some of America’s top oil CEOs.
Energy executives sold stock worth $1.4 billion in the first quarter on the back of a historic shock to the world’s crude supplies. https://t.co/YEeRheAGEU
BREAKING: VP Vance doubles down on his warning to Iran - take the next step for peace or be prepared to go back to war:
“I think the president has struck a good deal for the American people. But fundamentally, the Iranians have got to take the next step, or the president has a lot of options to go back to the war.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump's "red lines" on Iran have not changed and Tehran’s original 10-point peace plan "was thrown in the garbage."