Methodology

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

See ' The Sleeping Giant' on Reddit...

A truly incredible piece of work

Some folk might note ...merely in passing...
the section titled

'Proof of Pudding '
😇😇😇
Funny old World

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

Today's RNS

#PRD

'Importantly MOU-3 confirmed the interpretation of the results of the MOU-1 well completed in July 2021 and established a new gas basin covering up to 240 km² in the northwest corner of the Guercif Licence'

No comment needed from ROB

Re SCALE😇😇😇

QED

[Methodology @Method314]

#PRD

🔁 Reposting in long form a brilliant piece by KiethOz (@KQuick20704342) on Lse to X as a reference.

Click to expand.

Part 1️⃣. 

This bulletin board provides an environment for sensible adult discussion on all matters relating to Predator Oil & Gas. All views should be considered – it should not become an “echo chamber”. Nursery school one-line posts calling other posters liars, cheats & charlatans provide nothing, except perhaps to advertise the personality of the poster. 

I do my best to present factual information, usually referenced, and if I speculate based on that, I try to give my reasoning for doing so. I reconfirm I would be delighted to consider alternative views, and would ask some of the folks here who disagree with me to post in detail their opinions, with the reasonable proviso that they also present the facts on which they base their views, and how they have extrapolated from those facts. 

In particular, I would ask you to include the following in your conclusions: 

RESOURCE 

💥 Areal extent. 

MOU turbidites 30+km², Ma sands extent of 58km²: 

https://t.co/PphHpOdJdb and 

MOU-NE (Titanosaurus) 102km² 

https://t.co/YKo1frZEBH 

💥 Porosity & permeability. 

“At deposition the independent studies indicated that these sediments were likely to have 35 - 40% porosity and permeabilities between 2000 and 5000 Md. Lack of compaction and consolidation suggests that poroperm conditions would not have been significantly impacted through burial and therefore good reservoir quality would potentially be retained, as supported by the post-well NuTech log analysis.“ 

https://t.co/5b6Aux3db2 

💥 Reservoir thickness. 

MOU-1 testing of 22 reservoir intervals: 

https://t.co/YD3MqHju8M 

43m in MOU-3: 

https://t.co/PphHpOdJdb 

64m in MOU-4, plus Jurassic 

https://t.co/gxY8tc4XPs 

💥 Overpressure ���
Significant overpressure in Ma sands MOU-4. 

https://t.co/jHNFuAx92M 

and MOU-1 - chart, right side of p.13 

https://t.co/JM2hvsN6oQ 

💥 Flow per metre 

In the Rharb basin (continuous with Guercif) reservoir sands of only 1m thickness flowed at more than 1mm cfgd, thicker reservoirs at higher flow rates: 

https://t.co/lhO54HQxeK

Part 2️⃣. 

FINANCIAL 

💥 Profitability 

“The SLR CPR (January 2022) gives an unrisked NPV per BCF of discovered gas of US$1.99 million. This is based on a large-scale gas-to-power development using a gas price of US$9/mcf and results in a low net-back of just US$1.99/mcf.” and 

“The SLR CPR gave an unrisked NPV of US$592 million for the net Best Estimate resources of 295 BCF” (CNG, for just one reservoir structure) 

https://t.co/iwWaEGxv9D 

and see ranges for multiple scenarios: 

pp. 6 & 7, https://t.co/JM2hvsN6oQ 

💥 Tax environment. 

“Fiscal terms in Morocco are attractive. The state royalty for gas production is only 5% and is applied after the first 10.6 BCF of net production to the operator. Corporation tax is levied at a rate of 31%. However, the Moroccan government also applies a 10-year ‘holiday’ before corporation tax is payable and any unused tax losses can be offset against the tax due.” 

https://t.co/8rvKH7wmW7 

💥 Business environment & stability. 

“Not only is Morocco an important market in its own right, it is also becoming the premier commercial gateway to Africa, as well as Africa’s bridge to Europe. Africa presents the single largest growth opportunity in the world” 

https://t.co/T4TNOY5luS 

💥 Regulatory. 

“Oil and Gas Regulation in Morocco: one of the most attractive schemes in the world” 

https://t.co/KVXirSmvgA 

I await your responses. Have an interesting week - Keith (real person)

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

Until the World's great hydrocarbon fields

were fully discovered

They lay undiscovered

That was the situation WRT Guercif

(also the situation WRT the mighty Ghawar)

Folk are only now starting to understand

what I have long been banging on about

#PRD

[Methodology @Method314]

Link to #PRD regression analysis re flow rates:

https://t.co/LL89DacLeO

[Methodology @Method314]

#PRD MOU-1 Well logs: 🔍

Porosity = 21%
Permeability = 100md
Gas sat: 50-70%

The Yardstick Ranges - 📏

Porosity:

Negligible: 0-5%
Poor: 5-10%
Fair: 15%
Good: 20%
Very Good: 25%

Permeability:

Fair: 1-10 md
Good: 10-100 md
Very good: 100-1000 md

Well logs attached.

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

#PRD

Yes...you DID read it right 😇😇😇

Looks like they will perforate 22 horizons at MOU1

See 'Sleeping Giant' under 'proof of pudding'

That's it🔥

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

They will pay for what #PRD can prove

Prove even more = Pay even more

'Current market dynamics support drilling activity and very near-term value creation'

That's it🔥

[RedMenL4 @Klopps_Kop]

Predator O&G Hldgs - Operations Update #PRD @PredatorOilGas https://t.co/iV017b6CGE #voxmarkets

[Daniel Murray @DanielTMurray]

Fianna Fáil TD accuses Eamon Ryan of sitting on power supply crisis report for six months https://t.co/rRPJXfijcF

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

May I refer readers to

What was mentioned in

'The Sleeping Giant'

Under the heading

'The proof of the pudding'

The very definition of

'Posting my balls on the line'...

In public...in advance...

Of course...
nobody else agreed with me

That's it🔥

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

Number of nett metres being tested =

Per #PRD = just over 150 metres

Per published regression analysis...
Average gas production per metre of pay in the analogous Rharb basin...

Conservative uniform choke = 1.15 mmscfd

Random choke =1.36 mmscfd

That's it🔥

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

#PRD is THE epitome of

The needle in the haystack

In my time, I have dissected many haystacks

Straw by meticulous straw

And identified several needles

that delivered epic returns

But this one ...is

off the scale

I have good reason to say that

That's it🔥

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

#PRD

MOU3 & MOU4

Individually ...

and

Collectively ...

Exploded the processing chips

Of those who matter

That's it🔥

[K Quick @KQuick20704342]

#PRD See that nice juicy 10km wide, 4km deep Triassic/Jurassic/Neogene anticline right in the middle? Guercif seems like a good place for finding the largest gas accumulation in Morocco. Testing, testing.

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

@SGfordy711 You might want to read it in conjunction with the 2014

presentation by Maxim Resources...

as more recently highlighted by Keith on LSE

Whilst it is NOT homogenous...

I am now very sure the entire basin is heavily 'pregnant'

The multiple Jurassic plays are monstrous

#PRD

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

It may not be another Ghawar...

But this petroleum system appears mighty big

Biggest of my investing lifetime

By far😇😇😇

#PRD

[RedMenL4 @Klopps_Kop]

#PRD
https://t.co/GUyROa2EKM

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

Joel Greenblatt compounded at 33% per year for 20 years.

This means an investment of $10,000 would be worth $7 million!

I am sharing all his Class Notes mapped in 1 PDF for free:

[Graham Harrison 🌐 @GrahamHengland]

I used to post about 'Leviathan'

I will now call it...

'Leviathan 2'

E & P investors will have researched

The ring of giant and supergiant discoveries

around the Mediterranean

#PRD