Michael O'Keeffe

Chief Investment Officer - Stifel
/*********/

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

A resilient job market, firming inflation, and rising energy prices tied to the Iran conflict are giving the Federal Reserve room to keep rates steady — or even hike if needed.

At the same time, growing deficits and government debt are adding upward pressure to longer-term yields.

This week’s Sight|Lines explores why a “higher for longer” rate environment may remain in place for the foreseeable future and what that could mean for economic activity and equity market volatility.
https://t.co/zEtTtWTGlc via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

Geopolitical risk is a new normal.
The world is becoming more fragmented, with governments prioritizing security and companies rethinking supply chains.
Investors can focus on identifying the channels of risk and emphasizing quality, diversification, pricing power, and resilience.
Read the full newsletter to learn more.
#Markets #Investing #Geopolitics https://t.co/pgkX2tR63g via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

The Jevons paradox. SightLines this week explores AI—how cheaper intelligence may not reduce work, but instead increase demand for analysis, coding, design, service, and research.
#AI #JevonsParadox #Productivity #Investing
https://t.co/7kvmOfgh52 via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

The promise of Artificial Intelligence is increasing becoming a measurable economic reality. Read the full SightLines for the deep dive.
#AI #GDP #Earnings
https://t.co/mfskUqRDcI via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

The UAE’s exit from OPEC reflects a deeper reality: the cartel’s influence has been declining for more than a decade. That shift has been driven by the rise of U.S. shale, evolving policy, and a more competitive global energy landscape.

This week’s SIghtLines discusses how rising U.S. energy dominance and geopolitical tensions continue to reshape power dynamics in oil markets.
#OPEC #UAE #Energy
https://t.co/54KXClBjiO via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

The Warsh delay was typical Washington. A Warsh led Fed? Not so typical.

The Fed’s "market signaling" era may be coming to an end. Changes under Warsh?
✅ Inflation in primary focus.
✅ Forward Guidance scaled back.
✅ Market Signals replace "stale" macro data.
✅ Price Discovery happens faster, with volatility.

The goal? A more resilient market not dependent on the central bank for every move.

https://t.co/dfBYrAbNwl via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

In this month's Investment Strategy Brief, Stifel's Chief Investment Officer, Michael O'Keeffe, discusses environmental headwinds and tailwinds in 2026, especially around the Middle East conflict and artificial intelligence.

https://t.co/bDGJ95TFsB https://t.co/8feaoyiqG3

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

Upstream shocks—easy to miss, costly to ignore. SightLines highlights what investors should watch amid the U.S./Israel‑Iran conflict.

#SupplyChain #Inflation #IranConflict

https://t.co/tpBxNP702Q via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

Private credit stress—localized or systemic? SightLines examines rising concerns and what they mean for markets.
#PrivateCredit #Markets #Investing
https://t.co/06Bf0pxkyR via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

U.S. equities rose on signs of Middle East de-escalation, easing concerns over oil supply disruptions.

Learn more in today's Market Pulse: https://t.co/IjaBmCQZB1

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

Peace talks on again/off again. SightLines unpacks a prolonged conflict may impact our lives…and our markets.
#Oil #Markets #Energy #Investing

https://t.co/HlySf5lacZ via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

Markets are reacting to fast moving military actions in the Middle East, with oil up, stocks down, and volatility increased since the conflict began. The Fed left rates unchanged at its meeting. Sight|Lines unpacks these results and implications for future Fed policy.
#Fed #MonetaryPolicy #Markets #Investing

https://t.co/1dY8hwK61I via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

How quickly does the Iran conflict move to an off-ramp? While we see a 50% chance for de-escalation in the coming weeks.

#Markets #Energy #Oil #Investing
https://t.co/akYArnUGom via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

As new AI capabilities emerge, some industries are seeing “sell now, ask questions later” volatility. We view this as an uncertainty-driven repricing, not a sudden fundamental breakdown, and much of it looks overdone...don’t capitulate, and consider the opportunities created by valuation resets.
#AI #StockMarket #Investing #Technology #Logistics #Software #ScareTrade https://t.co/6ZDywIyH26 via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

Check out the latest article in my newsletter: The Nomination of Kevin Warsh: His Leadership and Approach May Smooth Out How We Experience Risk https://t.co/fmsrNXqfTa via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

While markets have grown accustomed to a Fed that actively attempts to steer investor expectations, a Warsh-led committee could prioritize raw transparency and genuine price discovery, suggesting a return to a more limited, orthodox role for the central bank that emphasizes long-term inflation credibility and reduces the Fed’s footprint within financial markets.

#markets #Fed #investing
https://t.co/Do6FUZ6Q91 via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

Gold's run may be signaling rising fiscal trajectory and sovereign-risk worries. Dollar weakness, central bank buying, and ETF inflows are key. Learn more in this week's #StifelSightLines video.

https://t.co/cEbu0vLsy1

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

We’ve been discussing our positive base case 2026 outlook, but each year we model alternate scenarios. Here are some details about our 2026 bear case and bull case scenarios.
#markets #investing #outlook2026 #AI

https://t.co/qpIvJwYnHl via @LinkedIn

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

Trade tensions resurfaced as tariff threats tied to Greenland negotiations weighed on global equities.

Learn more: https://t.co/lYw1hnO1fB

[Michael O'Keeffe @MichaelPOKeeffe]

In Outlook 2026: Rewiring Growth we discuss how outlook for a rewiring of growth – catalyzed by artificial intelligence – and improved productivity, labor dynamics, and earnings power going forward. This week, we share those details.
#MarketOutlook #AI #InvestmentStrategy https://t.co/szEdvWJynp via @LinkedIn