Michael Bento

Valois Capital Management, LLC :: Opinions are my own and often those opinions speak in GIFs

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

My take away from Powell's last presser are:

- He is very obviously concerned about the threat to Fed independence from the current administration. He gave lame excuses otherwise as to why he was staying on, but the subtext was obvious.

- There is a bias shift taking place on the FOMC that Warsh won't be able to overcome. The committee is shifting toward considering hikes rather than cuts so as of this meeting it would be fair to say the bias has now left easing and is squarely neutral. Powell dropped clues that if Hormuz stays closed for much longer than hikes will be on the way.

- The Fed is concerned about stagflation. He made a purpose to multiple times mention the inflationary effects of rising oil and the tariffs. He also made a purpose of highlighting specifically multiple times that gas prices going up reduces available disposable income and as a result he said it WILL impact GDP.

Anyone calling this meeting/presser a "nothingburger" has no idea what they are talking about or aren't adept at understanding Fedspeak. This was a warning shot to Trump and Warsh that the committee will not be cutting any time soon and they will resist any attempts of outside entities to force cuts or anything else that threatens Fed independence. Rates are staying higher for longer.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Not a great close on the Nikkei, topping candle intact.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Rates are going higher

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

The little zoom zooms that started trading 5 minutes ago are wearing out my mute button tonight.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Yep we are screwed because most of you have no idea what’s going on. The IEEPA tariffs were ruled unconstitutional, but Trump had several different types of tariffs implemented on Liberation Day, not just IEEPA. Additionally once IEEPA was struck down his administration found a workaround and just shoved them into a new tariffs category. The fact that you guys actually believe the propaganda is a big problem.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

So a little history lesson for you all, the 1929 crash was not the start of the Great Depression, but it was a major cause of it. Herbert Hoover was essentially the Trump of a century ago, a businessman obsessed with the market and not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed. When the market crashed in 1929 one of the solutions pushed by Hoover to help the economy which was sliding into recession thanks to the crash were the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs which were actually one of the primary causes of the recession becoming a depression because it choked off trade. Any of this starting to sound familiar?

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

The topping process we are in is making 1929 look like just a bit of chop.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

I thought the IRGC put Ghalibaf on house arrest and he was removed from his government positions last month during those "negotiations", now suddenly he's all over these ones running the show?

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

It's hilarious to see how many of you think this is sustainable for even a month. The cult behavior created by that failed game store really brought the dumbest people into this market.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

The no profile picture, no posts, random number handle permabull trolls are out in force tonight. This smells like a major top this week.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

If this is true then Vance is the biggest pansy in the world for not getting the cabinet to 25th Amendment Trump.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

I spy a topping candle on the Nikkei

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Uhoh, we looks like the Yen being pulled to 160 like a magnet

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

BONDI TOP JUST BECAME THE BONDI DOUBLE TOP

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Where are all thew "WTI is going to 60" bros. I demand you show yourselves now.

[KOLODA @CCWatcher1]

Final MOC

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

This is an unreasonable demand by design because Iran would never agree to it, and that's the plan. This is clear evidence that the talks are dead and we are likely going to see an escalation in the war once the Muslim holiday ends Friday.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

We closed with an ugly looking doji on the daily for $SPY. We also now have a bearish volume divergence and a bearish RSI divergence in play. I'll be looking for confirmation tomorrow. If we end tomorrow higher the divergences will likely be invalidated, however if we end flat of lower, even if we push higher intraday, there is a high likelihood these divergences play out in the back half of the week. Again with PCE on Thursday it is the perfect catalyst to dump this down to at least 735 and these divergences may be signaling that.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

If this MOC holds through the close based on gamma we can probably move a bit higher tomorrow. 752 is likely resistance tomorrow and based on the 1dte gamma profile I can see a pullback to 745 followed by a run up to 755 Wednesday. PCE on Thursday has the potential to rug this however.