Michigan Value Investor

Yup, it's really me, the one and only MVI

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW It's always amazing to me how price moves dictate sentiment when the businesses themselves have done nothing materially different than expected. Consider ETON and HROW recently, both the subjects of my recent SA public articles. In each case I bought lower originally, $5.70 for HROW and $3.50 for ETON, but never mind that, let's just think about YTD 2026.
Nothing has changed about the value of either stock YTD. Everything long term is exactly what it's always been. That's something like $100 for ETON and something like $500 for HROW by the end of the decade, call it 2030. Anyone can easily see this for themselves by looking even the most basic long term metrics over time - revenue growth, EBITDA margin growth - and then asking if the elements are in place for continued growth, as they clearly are. The details are uncertain, as is the timing. But the basic range of value centering around these targets, there has been practically no news at all.
And yet... ETON's price from the lows YTD has doubled and HROW's price from the highs this year has been cut almost in half. Zero change in value, no news that matters to value has been learned, long term targets not changed. Short term prices have moved the relative price of these two stocks by a factor of 4.
In each case, the stocks are simple to understand and easy to model over longer periods. HROW in particular is harder to model quarter by quarter because of the huge seasonality and the issues surrounding regulation and insurance, neither of which apply to ETON. So on a quarterly basis, ETON is easy. But both are very simple over a period of years.
If you are a value investor, something will click about what I just said. Buffett always said value investing is simple, but it isn't easy. And that it doesn't take a lot of IQ - anything over 120 is a waste is what he said, not sure I agree - but the real trick is the right mindset. Someone losing their mind over this short term price movement and letting fanciful stories impact their decisions when the long term trends are as plain as day, that person may have the required 120+ IQ, but clearly lacks the right mindset.
Buffett always said, too, that you can't teach that mindset. It either makes sense to you or it doesn't. I include this commentary here for those who have that mindset, but who are second guessing themselves right now. If that's you, ignore the fearful short termers who let the market tell them what to think, think for yourself instead, and act according to your views. For the rest, I wish you well, good luck!

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@betaniaduranf IR problem. management busy running the business, incredible performance. Putting oneself into the mindset of an outside investor is IR's job. Understand where we are stuck and how they can help. Some competitive info needs to be withheld. Gotta walk that line

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW IR needs to explain why Iheezo Q4 revenue is always 1.5x ASP times unit demand in Q4 '23,24,25. And yet they are telling us '25 was different somehow. Shareholders see this, ask about it, IR is clueless about why we are asking. Frustrating.

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW I'm thinking about writing a public article on how IR needs to get it's shit together on a few points. Some real basic stuff they NEED to get right.

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@Valueman53997 small cap?

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

Effective convos in breakouts yesterday Wm Blair (PT $83). Remember, $HROW is incredibly obvious to anyone who takes a look and is not a moron. Microcap, so lots of morons currently involved in the share/short base. That will change with growth

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@rddbryant I follow $ETON closely as I said. There is no stone unturned. That said, I will likely learn nothing from this conference. I know them too well already. But never say never

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@rddbryant I follow $ETON closely. In at $3.50, out at over $30, but likely back in at some point soon. Still quite cheap, but sort of a silly run from $14 to $33 for no reason at all

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@theShedsLars @Ron_Trades @themateuszcaban it's just a matter of time. what's more, it's completely obvious

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW Remarkable evidence that the Street is waaaay off on Vevye. From a recent Wells Fargo report. Mark told us on the call Vevye share 14%, sell side has 6%...

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@Ron_Trades @themateuszcaban $HROW is making competitors obsolete! Vevye share now within 150 bps of Meibo according to Mark. So that's nice.

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@themateuszcaban LOL yes, $HROW is A Eye company 🤣

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@dorb2sQ you're welcome!

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@dorb2sQ we do know. sell side is using IQVIA data which does not include PhilRx scripts. 14% is vastly better. More market share means more influence negotiating with PBMs. Look for better insurance coverage over time as a result. Anyone missing this is missing something fundamental

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW is a show me story for most everyone. But they do show us every year, followed by doubts and show me again. Then they show again. It's a fascinating pattern that leads to massive share gains over time and lots of volatility

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

Q: For the long term, are the elements driving growth still in place. A: Emphatically yes, and yes, it's obvious. Lots of operating leverage, so EBITDA grows faster than revenue.
Q: Are we near the 1H seasonal low price?
A: Sure looks like it to me...

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW typically has a low price in 1H and a high price in 2H as the market is confused about seasonal effect. Implied 2026 2H high is ~$90. Lower high only happened twice. Lower low also only twice. Every other year was up. Yellow=YOU ARE HERE

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

I mentioned $HROW's business kills it every year, no exceptions. 10-yr EBITDA, no down years. 60% 5-yr CAGR. That's why the share price is up at such an incredible pace. 40% 10-yr revenue CAGR, only down one year: 4% in the 2020 pandemic.

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@joeriwestland I mean yes, but they will easily beat 2026 guidance

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW people pretend HROW's business is hard to predict, but nothing could be further from the truth. It's waaay up and right every year, no exceptions, going back 11 years now. Here's five of them

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

@abhi_427 they got this far with 50 sales reps compared to 300 for competitors. now 100 reps. So maybe 33% share? It'll take a couple years ofc

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW It's always amazing to me how price moves dictate sentiment when the businesses themselves have done nothing materially different than expected. Consider ETON and HROW recently, both the subjects of my recent SA public articles. In each case I bought lower originally, $5.70 for HROW and $3.50 for ETON, but never mind that, let's just think about YTD 2026.
Nothing has changed about the value of either stock YTD. Everything long term is exactly what it's always been. That's something like $100 for ETON and something like $500 for HROW by the end of the decade, call it 2030. Anyone can easily see this for themselves by looking even the most basic long term metrics over time - revenue growth, EBITDA margin growth - and then asking if the elements are in place for continued growth, as they clearly are. The details are uncertain, as is the timing. But the basic range of value centering around these targets, there has been practically no news at all.
And yet... ETON's price from the lows YTD has doubled and HROW's price from the highs this year has been cut almost in half. Zero change in value, no news that matters to value has been learned, long term targets not changed. Short term prices have moved the relative price of these two stocks by a factor of 4.
In each case, the stocks are simple to understand and easy to model over longer periods. HROW in particular is harder to model quarter by quarter because of the huge seasonality and the issues surrounding regulation and insurance, neither of which apply to ETON. So on a quarterly basis, ETON is easy. But both are very simple over a period of years.
If you are a value investor, something will click about what I just said. Buffett always said value investing is simple, but it isn't easy. And that it doesn't take a lot of IQ - anything over 120 is a waste is what he said, not sure I agree - but the real trick is the right mindset. Someone losing their mind over this short term price movement and letting fanciful stories impact their decisions when the long term trends are as plain as day, that person may have the required 120+ IQ, but clearly lacks the right mindset.
Buffett always said, too, that you can't teach that mindset. It either makes sense to you or it doesn't. I include this commentary here for those who have that mindset, but who are second guessing themselves right now. If that's you, ignore the fearful short termers who let the market tell them what to think, think for yourself instead, and act according to your views. For the rest, I wish you well, good luck!