Archer Capital

Stimulation Theory

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@cixliv @REK Bro why are there multiple angles im concerned

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

Break a leg taken seriously

[Culture Crave 🍿 @CultureCrave]

Robot dies mid-run during the ‘Robot Olympics’

[Humanoid Intelligence @HumanoidsHQ]

NEW WORLD RECORD at the World Humanoid Robot Games!

X-Humanoid Tiangong just jumped an incredible 3.4 metres from a standing position. The torque on this thing is insane.

We now have humanoid robots that can run fast, jump far and jump high.

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@Google has officially bent the knee #deletegooglemapa @Apple

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

A little uncanny

[Humanoid Intelligence @HumanoidsHQ]

Tesla Optimus will soon be able to perform all of these tasks and much more.

As @elonmusk said:

“Optimus will be the biggest product ever.”

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

Ay chihuahua

[Yusro @Yusro_web3]

POV: Me after overtrading all day and turning a green account into a crime scene 💀

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@OddStats Odd stat but ok 👍

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

People underestimate connectivity demand with the growing internet of things on the horizon utilizing AI

[iPilot🅰️ @OmniAeronautica]

$ASTS | FAIR VALUE TODAY: $500 PER SHARE

Begin with approximately 439 million economically diluted shares at a $500 stock price, including current economic interests, probable equity awards, convertible shares and the disclosed capped-call offsets. At $500, that produces an equity value of approximately $219.5 billion.

Using a 15% required annual return, AST SpaceMobile would need to support approximately $441.5 billion of value in 2031. At 35 times free cash flow, that requires approximately $12.6 billion of annual free cash flow. At a 40% free-cash-flow margin, the required revenue is approximately $31.5 billion.

Here is one route to that number. Commercial direct-to-device service: 500 million users from the more than 3 billion subscribers represented by AST’s existing mobile network operator partners, or approximately 16.7% penetration, producing an average $3 per month of net revenue to AST equals $18.0 billion annually.

Government, defense, emergency and sovereign networks contribute $6.0 billion. Internet of Things produces $4.8 billion from 400 million connections averaging $1 per month. Controlled spectrum, radar, non-communications missions, AI edge computing and other specialized applications contribute another $3.0 billion. Total annual revenue: $31.8 billion.

The arithmetic is straightforward: $31.8 billion × 40% free-cash-flow margin = $12.72 billion. Multiply by 35 and the 2031 value is $445.2 billion. Discount that five years at 15% and the present value is approximately $221.3 billion. Divide by 438.8 million economically diluted shares and the result is approximately $504 per share.

Every additional $1 billion of sustainable annual revenue contributes approximately $15.90 of present value per share under the same assumptions. Every 100 million direct-to-device users producing $3 per month for AST contributes approximately $57 per share.

AST already reports more than 60 mobile network operator partners covering over 3 billion subscribers, approximately $1.3 billion of contracted revenue, more than $125 million of United States government awards, and a potential Japanese sovereign-network program valued at up to approximately $1 billion.

A probability-weighted range reaches essentially the same conclusion: a $112 bear case weighted at 30%, a $504 base case weighted at 50%, and a $1,020 bull case weighted at 20% produce approximately $490 per share.

A $500 fair value today does not require AST to capture the world. It requires the company to capture a meaningful but still minority share of several enormous markets while developing platform-level margins. The addressable revenue is plainly there. The remaining variables are execution, capacity and timing.

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@OmniAeronautica @101sfinance My guy came with receipts ✍️

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

& living with your parents is just a budget-maxx

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Gen Z men are skipping showers before dates to “pheromone-maxx,” hoping their natural scent will make them more attractive. — Fox

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

She used to be the laughing stock of the market but now she be spittin straight heaters 🥊

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

When I try and explain that tokens inferenced increased 25-fold in a year and are multiplying exponentially, cascading through the economy, and are likely to push real GDP growth per year toward double digit territory, many clients and companies simply do not comprehend.

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@leadlagreport It is all computer 🤖

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@Market1Surgeon This is the most bullish market I’ve ever seen that is now (supposedly) pricing in a rate increase next month.

Anything to distract from the AI story and record earnings growth.

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@corleoneinvests Oh no, what have you done, now they’re calling for $80! We’re for sure headed to $40 😔

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@Invest_Brandon Does the EPS growth line readjust with a rate increase?

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@BlackLabelAdvsr Is this satire?

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

they literally did the meme

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

Chart must hold here, else we lose a multi year trend. In a game of chicken, I like these odds.

[FonsieTrader @FonsieTrader]

The dip is the entry.
$ASTS just slapped the trendline that carried this stock from $17 to $134. Thursday’s close: $61.44, –10.5%, huge volume. That is not a breakdown. That is the weekly spring.
BlueBird 12 and 13 are deployed. 14 is built. 15 and 16 are next. The line runs through 48. This is no longer a science project. It is a factory in Texas putting broadband arrays into orbit.
From this line, the chart already maps a ~105% measured move back toward $108. A full tag of the old high is double from here — $122–$134. That is the long: buy the structure that never broke, while the constellation is still being stacked.
The bear argument is always the same — no network revenue yet, $18B cap. Correct. And irrelevant if 12 and 13 stay up and the next launch date holds. The market paid $134 when the birds were a promise. It is offering $61 with two more arrays open.
Long the trendline. Risk it under $53. Target the measured move first, the old high second.
$ASTS
Not investment advice.
Launch and execution risk still sit on every share.

[Archer Capital @MikeFeeley20]

@Sandeman52 This is actually incredibly bullish.