AMD says its new Instinct MI455X GPUs, shipping in the coming months, will deliver 34x higher token throughput compared to its MI355X GPU.
$AMD $NVDA $AVGO
Careful convincing yourself that price cannot fall further
The only certainty I've found in regards to trading is that the market will punish you until you learn
The more violent lessons need to happen with smallish size
Gave back all of July's gains on Friday. Replaced the trend unfolding in front of me with the one I wanted
Shouldn't have even been on desk and knew it
$MU $TSLA $INTC $SPCX
$INTC vs consensus reported ~2x the EPS & beat revs by 12%. They raised capex (18%) much like their customers did yesterday but unlike their customers their Q3 EPS is going up by ~40%. I like infrastructure beneficiaries w/ expanding margins of all that spend, not the spenders.
It is the middle to the end of July and markets are in full summer mode. I know a lot of people are sitting at their screens over-analyzing every tick, but what I see is a bull market that is resetting itself through rotation. Nothing more, nothing less.
The Russell is the index I like the most right now. As long as it holds above 2,920ish I think it continues to push toward new highs into late summer or early fall. The S&P is similar. As long as 7,460 holds I see a slow grind right back up to new highs. Those are the two buy the dip indexes in this environment.
The Nasdaq is a different story. As long as it stays below 29,500 I think it could work its way back down to 27,700. That is a 2,000 point range and I think the Nasdaq just chops around in there for now. It is not in favor at the moment. The S&P and Russell are the summer grinders. The Nasdaq is the one getting rotated out of right now. Above 29,500 you have the Indexes all firing together and then I think you could have a reasonable move higher.
On crude oil, this rally has a nice technical look to it and the fundamentals are backing it up. The $84 area is the anchored VWAP from the beginning of the year and price continues to test that level. I think crude has more going for it on the bull side but I would not be surprised to see it just chop around the $80 to $85 area for a while. If I start to see daily closes above $84 to $85 consistently, then maybe oil has another leg higher in it and that could start to slow down the equity trade. Until I see that, crude is just trading technically well and I expect it to spend some time in the mid to low $80’s.
The market I think is getting ahead of itself in gold. When I look at the gold chart it is just not pretty. I would not be surprised to see it work its way down to $3,500. Rallies in gold are to be sold in my opinion. That market has not made a good bottom yet and if you are looking for something to sell, gold is the one where selling rallies makes the most sense to me.
For short-term day traders, focus on the morning trade. I have been here many times in July. You sit there and overthink it, you over-trade it, and in reality not a lot is going to happen. Be small, be smart, know what you are looking for, and if you catch something early or miss it entirely do not chase it. Come back and find another one tomorrow. Enjoy your summer.
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Cheers, DELI