For context: SpaceX is asking you to pay more than Apple's entire market cap for a company that lost $5 billion last year. Apple earned $94 billion.
$SPCX $AAPL
$SPCX
SpaceX IPO lists in 3 days (June 9) ..
$75 billion raise.
$1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in history.
And they're giving 30% of shares to retail investors triple the historical norm.
To me this is no generosity... so here's likely what it means ๐งต
13)
The uncomfortable summary:
The most interesting company going public in a generation. Being offered at a price that reflects every optimistic scenario simultaneously. With governance that removes your rights. Debt that consumes part of your raise. And a retail allocation designed to put maximum risk on the investors least equipped to handle it.
The business is real. The valuation is a choice.
Make it with your eyes open ๐
I'm not calling a crash. I'm not telling you to sell everything.
I'm saying: the calm is real. So is what it might precede.
The risks are visible. They're just being ignored.
I'd rather be early and wrong than correct and unprepared.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
The S&P 500 is near all-time highs.
Meanwhile: $36T in debt. An active war disrupting 20% of global oil supply. A Fed that can't move.
I've been investing for years. I think the market is pricing in a best-case scenario it hasn't earned.
A thread on what I actually see. ๐งต
What I'm actually doing:
โ Shorter duration bonds (optionality over yield)
โ More real assets... energy, commodities, inflation hedges
โ International diversification (US valuations are stretched vs. rest of world)
โ Holding more cash than I'm comfortable with
โ Reducing leverage everywhere