Unbiased observation of how ๐ท๐บRussia's special military operation in ๐บ๐ฆUkraine turns into a full-scale war whose costs are determined by the West๐บ๐ธ๐ฌ๐ง.
Ukraine may be repeating a costly mistake in Pokrovsk.
Itโs a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk โ a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
I will summarize: Ukraine has held well this year, and Russian offensive efforts proved lackluster, attaining incremental gains at considerable cost. But support remains essential, because the pressure has mounted in recent months, and this will prove a difficult winter.
The operational situation for the ukrainian ๐บ๐ฆ army is getting increasingy more difficult
After losing most of Pokrovsk, Ukraine is facing an accelerated advance towards Zaporizhzhia in the south.
Russia ๐ท๐บ is pushing everywhere at a faster pace.
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To summarize, in the longer video released by Ukraine's SBU we can identify at least three Tu-95MSs:
-B/N "14" Red (RF-94132)
"Voronezh": Kh-101-capable.
-B/N "22" Red (RF-94257)
"Chelyabinsk": Not Kh-101-capable.
-B/N "22" Red (RF-94120)
"Kozelsk": Kh-101-capable.
new high-quality pre/post-attack sat imagery of the Russian air bases attacked by Ukrainian drones on Sunday; damage to aircraft clearly visible. Images 1-2: Belaya air base, May 22; Images 3-4: Belaya air base, June 4. ๐ธ @Maxar
New high-resolution satellite imagery of Russiaโs Olenya Airbase in the Murmansk Oblast, near Finland, shows the destroyed wreckage of 4 Tu-95MS Long-Range Strategic Bombers as well as an An-12 Military Transport, following Sundayโs large-scale drone attack by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), which has since been dubbed Operation Spiderweb.
1/ High resolution satellite imagery captured by @Planet and @AirbusDefence shows the aftermath of Ukraineโs strike on the Belaya airbase, situated over 4000 km from Ukraine.
๐ป Satellite images of ๐ท๐บ Dyagilevo Airbase as of June 2, 8:55 UTC
The airbase housed 3 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 5 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C), 14 Il-78M or Il-76MD (Midas or Candid) and 2 Su-30SM (Flanker-C).
There was no serious damage after the Ukrainian special operation. In the right part of the airfield, traces of fire can be seen on the grass, which were also visible in photos shared by eyewitnesses on the day of the attack.
Good meeting. We discussed a lot one on one. Hoping for results on everything we covered. Protecting lives of our people. Full and unconditional ceasefire. Reliable and lasting peace that will prevent another war from breaking out. Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results. Thank you @POTUS.
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๐ท๐บ51st GRAU Arsenal๐ท๐บ
Looks like the fire could be spreading... Always tough to tell with just FIRMS data but the heat signature is growing
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๐ท๐บ51st GRAU Arsenal๐ท๐บ
3m๐ท from 24 April 2025 show the extent of the damage at the 51st Arsenal
Still waiting on higher resolution and this was a quick analysis
red dot assumes impacted not necessarily destroyed
๐ท๐บโ๏ธ Russian aviation is now working to extinguish the fire at the 51st GRAU Arsenal in the Kirzhachsky District of Russiaโs Vladimir region.
Helicopters and at least two Il-76s are working at the scene.