Milosh

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

He’s at it again over confidently handing out player evaluations and talent assessments like he’s the authority on hockey, despite never having played the game at any meaningful level. It’s always fascinating watching someone critique the abilities of athletes who’ve spent their lives developing skills he’s only ever observed from the comfort of the sidelines. The confidence-to-experience ratio is truly elit

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

Funny how the energy bulls mock every bearish call.

1. They've had the narrative $150-$200 Crude Oil Price call.
2. They've had the headlines. "Greatest Energy Crisis of Lifetime"
3. They've had the consensus. "Generalist are Generalist, were the experts".

What they haven't had is being right.

Oil to $80-$83, 100% Bookmark it.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@ChrisWagter Its' great line! Just what it looks like when you actually price the distribution instead of narrating it.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

100%. What you’re seeing especially in the reaction to your calls, is pure frustration from energy bulls who built oversized, low-conviction long beta positions off narratives instead of probabilities.
Anyone can dump public data into an Excel sheet, count oil barrels, and spin it into a “once-in-a-lifetime crisis.” due to $150-$200 oil call. But that’s not edge or alpha, it’s just repackaging widely available information into a more dramatic story. The market doesn’t pay for reading spreadsheets. It pays for correctly assigning probabilities to outcomes AKA "tail risk". And right now, what’s getting exposed is how many people confused storytelling as market signal and over beta conviction for edge.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@robin_j_brooks Length without escalation is never bullish, it’s just time proving the original probabilities "greatest energy crisis of lifetime due to $150-$200 Spot Oil" is dead wrong.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@RealPeterLinder Or maybe the market is just repricing away from the $150–$200 fantasy that never shows up.
$93 oil isn’t validation it’s the market firmly rejecting the disaster scenario bulls keep trying to hard-code as reality.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@EzMid22 @DarioCpx Oh wow, we're now reached the point of the Energy Bulls cycle where the best arguments is about my gorgeous looks, age and yr round Caribbean tan, at this current point, the BUll trade isn’t being debated anymore , it’s already broken, and so is your position.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

It’s interesting and at the same time pathetic reading Energy Bulls react when Oil prices action doesn’t follow their $150–$200 “greatest energy crisis of our lifetime” narrative. Instead of revisiting the thesis, the response is always to label anyone who called the current market correctly as a “government propaganda mouthpiece.” That’s not analysis, that’s just deflection. When the narrative breaks, attacking the messenger becomes easier than questioning the model.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

It’s amazing how easily people expose themselves when they don’t actually understand what they’re trading, while confidently talking about “getting paid to be long front-month oil.” The Oil market is in backwardation—that’s it. It’s not a paycheck, it’s a curve structure. And there have already been 3 calendar spread rolls since March where deferred prices are lower than the spot you claim you’re “long.” Now basic math, 3 rolls in backwardation markets lost $21, is not “free income” t’s negative roll yield being paid out in real time.
That’s not you collecting a carry. Best understand your target audience as your very much confusing a market condition with a strategy and pretending it’s alpha! Good Luck!

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

The debate isn’t demand destruction at $95—it’s growth destruction above $95. The market isn’t pricing demand falling today. It’s pricing weaker demand growth tomorrow. Record inventory draws don’t prove energy is undervalued. They just show the spot market is tight right now. You can have $95 oil and record draws and still have, zero meaningful demand growth story left.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

You're pointing to a 7% FCF yield as if it's obviously cheap. But what if it's not cheap? What if the market is correctly pricing a business with little growth, high cyclicality, political risk, and uncertain terminal value? Yes Energy is generating record cash flow because it has underinvested for a decade and benefited from geopolitical shocks. A 7% FCF yield isn't attractive when earnings peaked decades ago and never grow again. Energy investors collect their dividends while watching their relative wealth shrink.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@KYRRadio @MMusclesd @robin_j_brooks

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

I'm willing to bet good money the loudest Energy Bulls who brag they long oil on paper, haven't actually made money being long oil, simply due to rolling calendar spreads. Since March 1, WTI and Brent has gone through 3 front-month rolls and b/c the market is steep backwardation, each roll required long holders to sell a higher-priced expiring contract and buy a lower-priced deferred contract. The roll gaps have been $6–8/bbl in March, $3.8/bbl in April, and $4.4/bbl in May, adding up to $14–16/bbl of cumulative roll-down.

That's the part Energy Bulls don't want to tell you.

When you're looking at a continuous CL chart and saying, "I've been long oil the whole time," you're meaningful portion of that apparent move has been eaten away by the mechanics of rolling futures. Being directionally correct is not the same thing as making money. In a heavily backwardated market, you can be bullish crude, stay long the entire period, and still underperform badly because every roll forces you into a cheaper contract. The headline price move and the actual P&L are not the same thing. Remember, the loudest one in room is always the "weakest" and that always falls on Energy Bulls.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@KYRRadio @robin_j_brooks Greatest Enery Crisis of life time with 90% Volatility. Good Luck!

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

Wow, this is 3rd time in the past +20 yrs where Energy Markets are in the greatest energy crisis (2008, 2020 2026) but according to you you holding the Mega Lottery Ticket cause I've read the Excel Sheet Data which is public free every Energy Bull and Bear read it. My barber has even read it and he's bull! Guess what, here's nothing proprietary or hidden here in the data, the real challenge is you understanding you don't know what you reading.

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@KYRRadio @robin_j_brooks Sure let's pull up Chart, Brent Oil 60 day Volatility trading near 90% but ask Energy Bull, Crude Oil prices are heading to $150 -$200 as midst of "greatest energy crisis of lifetime" we read the excel sheet data sheet which is fully open to public!

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@KYRRadio @jaginger @robin_j_brooks So let's get this right, you're holding the winning Lottery Ticket based on "inventory and drawdown data" guess which is open to every market participant. Wow, talk about having "alpha". Impressive!

[Milosh @MiloshOffical]

@KYRRadio @robin_j_brooks Blaming ‘fake headlines’ is just the tell. That’s what people say when price refuses to validate their thesis. Because admitting the market disagrees is harder than pretending it’s blind.