READ: https://t.co/pkhgXAje5Q
"Strategic voting always has a price. It is just that this election has us finally talking openly about that price. For years we have had an oddly infantilising culture around MMP voting where commentators tut whenever voters discuss tactical arrangements."
@AngloNz1915 @2ETEKA Hold your nose and vote blue no matter who for your electorate seat.
The alternative is turning into south africa at best, Zimbabwe at the worst.
After this election we can afford to be picky, but now we’re running on survival mode. Our nation has never faced such danger
🚩THE STRATEGY TO SAVE NZ
Don Brash this morning said that with TOP clearing the 5% threshold and National being so weak there is only one GUARANTEED route to power for the centre right.
Give your electorate vote to National - and your party vote to NZ First or Act
This will create an overhang for National who could still hold 35-37 seats, and with more party vote distributed to the coalition partners Brash rightly says “The coalition will be unstoppable!”
National are on course for NO LIST SEATS, so the question is do they want:
A) To have a shot at the party vote - and maybe 2 lists seats but with good chance of losing the election?
or
B) Do they want to GUARANTEE no list seats but also GUARANTEE a return for the coalition to power?
The coalition will be returned with a better composition meaning this time they’ll be pushed harder by their more powerful coalition partners.
This is a rock solid strategy to avoid NZ being completely screwed by nightmare Labour/Greens/TPM/TOP govt.
Surely there are some wealthy individuals out there prepared to push this campaign ala Peter Shirtcliffe and the business roundtables anti MMP project back in 1993.
🧵1/ Create the Centre right overhang to block the left from Govt.
Current state of play.
Nats 29%
NZ First on 12%
ACT on 8%
On these numbers the left will win govt - and that is even before taking into account any TPM overhang of say 3 seats.
National cannot get past the ceiling which is around 30% party vote. They can however hold onto around 38 electorate seats (these are listed in the next thread). This presents the centre right with an extremely rare opportunity. A large overhang that dwarfs the lefts overhang and guarantee to
block the left out completely.
Through strategic voting, if we take 9% off National’s party vote (which will otherwise be wasted) and redistribute it to their coalition support parties, that would change the calculus big time.
It could look like this:
NZ First on 17%
ACT on 13%
National currently hold 49 seats in Parliament. Under this scenario they would still hold 38 electorate seats the breakdown could be:
• National: 38 seats (- 11 from 2023)
• NZ First: 22 seats (+ 14 from 2023)
• ACT: 16 seats (+ 5 from 2023)
This ensures the extra party votes for National ARE NOT WASTED, and by not voting for the electorate candidate for NZF or Act but for National the electorate votes ARE NOT WASTED , the Nats should hold the seat.
The larger Nationals electorate seat numbers are over their entitlement for list seats the better. Also on recent polling National WILL NOT win list seats anyway
Create the overhang, electorate vote for National , Party vote for either NZ First or Act, keep the left out, and return the coalition with stronger coalition partners.
Only 6 countries allow non-citizens to vote and New Zealand is the least restrictive. Voting in our elections should be reserved for those who have made the full legal and civic commitment to this country.