Every prior Bitcoin drawdown at day 332 was already deeper than this one. 2013 was sitting at 73.7% down, 2017 at 67.2%, 2021 at 70.4%.
This one is at 38.7%.
Those three eventually bottomed at 91%, 83.3%, and 76.7%. The last two took over a year to get there.
Remember, Bitcoin drawdowns have historically gotten shallower cycle to cycle. 2013 bottomed at 91%, then 2017 at 83.3%, then 2021 at 76.7%.
This one is 330 days in and sitting at 38.1%. At the same point the three prior cycles were already between 66.9% and 72.1% down.
No one knows if that pattern holds a fourth time.
Bitcoin's risk model, 0.37.
The model is built on twelve-plus years of price history and it doesn't flinch at noise. That's the point.
Fourteen days in the same zone and it has moved less than the spread on most altcoins.
Metaplanet, the Japanese public company building a Bitcoin treasury, just moved 2,400 BTC onto Coinbase.
When a company moves Bitcoin from private storage to an exchange, it means those coins are now ready to be used. They were locked away, now they are liquid.
The move was recorded today.
Bitwise's Solana ETF just hit $1 billion in assets under management. First SOL fund to get there.
What that means in practice is that a billion dollars is now sitting in a single regulated vehicle tracking Solana's price. That is money from advisors and institutions who need an ETF wrapper before they can touch an asset.
Bitcoin's first ETF took months to reach that level.
Bitcoin is up 2%, ETH half a percent.
Yesterday the split leaned heavy red. Today the count reversed but the size of the moves stayed compressed outside that one name.
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Ethena down 6.5%, Bitway up 15.4%. Those are the two names that matter on today's board.
80 red, 18 green, 2 flat across the top 100. Median move was -1.8% and Bitcoin moved -0.5%.
Strip out Bitway and the green side of the board has almost nothing to show.
Canton dropped 8.2% on a day where the median move across the top 100 was -0.1%.
On the other side, Bitway put in +12.1%, the largest green move on the board. BTW is ranked 68. CC is ranked 22.
Bitcoin finished at +0.6%. 56 of the top 100 closed red, but almost none of them moved enough to notice.
USDT circulating supply hit a 30-day low today at 88.31B.
For anyone unfamiliar, USDT is the largest stablecoin in crypto. It is used as the base currency on most exchanges worldwide. A falling supply means fewer of those dollar-pegged tokens exist for traders to deploy.
That number has been declining steadily over the past month.
Bitcoin fear and greed is at 73 and has been in Greed for 5 straight days.
Remember, the typical visit to this zone lasts 3 days. The longest on record ran 42 days. Five days in, this one is already running longer than most.
322 days since Bitcoin set its high at $126,080.
2013 took 78 days to reach its cycle low. 2017 took 363. 2021 took 378.
This drawdown is 38.7% deep. At day 322, 2017 was already 67% down and 2021 was at 71.5%. Neither was anywhere near this shallow at this point.
Bitcoin broke above $75,000 and is holding above it.
The last few times price hit a round number like that, it chopped around for hours before deciding. This time it just went.
Now, 80 of the top 100 are green and only 8 are red. Broad strength across the board with a median move of 4.9% and Bitcoin up 8.5%.
Ethena is sitting at 40.1% higher over the same window. Ranked 64 by market cap.
When the entire board is green and one coin still moves 8x the median, the move is not coming from the rest of the market lifting it.