Minerva Capital

Long / short trading with objective of beating $SPY in good times and protecting capital in bad. NOT financial advice. Subscribe for free at

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

Excited to reach 3,000 followers! Thanks to all of you for your support. ❤️
I've updated my pinned tweet to reflect my current trading process so that you can better understand my trade ideas. Let me know if you have any questions/comments!
https://t.co/rdHRogqkSX

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

https://t.co/kIokGc7FRz

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Enjoyed talking bubbles and the market with @carlquintanilla and @LesliePicker

Thanks for the conversation

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

@TBU12345678 No chokepoints there!

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

These two headlines were ready to go out depending on the market:
Stocks fall on prospects of rate hikes
OR
Stocks rise on strong jobs data
BS. Things got overheated and needed to cool down.

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

My thoughts are that this was just an unwind of leveraged longs and normal pullback to the 21EMA after a long run (DeMark exhaustion). I dipped my toes back in here on $SPY. NFA

[Sonu Varghese @sonusvarghese]

Ugly tape on the prospect of rate hikes, but 2 things

1) Warsh Fed unlikely to hike anytime soon and we’ll faff about with stuff like “trimmed mean PCE” for months

2) Today a reminder that an (eventual) aggressive hike cycle can kill the bull/bubble, à la late 1960s

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

$HNGE gets a speeding ticket for going too fast in slow traffic

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

$HNGE ATHs! Got long a couple of days back (notes below).

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

Picked up $CIEN on the VWAP reclaim post earnings gap-down vs LOD. NFA

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

📊 Trade ideas for tomorrow (Not Financial Advice)
$AVAV $RDDT $CRDO $ENVA $ATLC $AMG $AMT $COO $OSCR $VIAV
📌 See pinned tweet for how I use my WL

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

📊 Add'l tickers from morning scans (NFA)
$AVGO $CIEN $APP

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

Picked up $COO from WL vs LOD and $XLV July $153 calls

[Vikram Sekar @vikramskr]

The initial lure of AI-maxxing is catching up to companies as they pucker up seeing the token spend.

I warned 2 months ago that tokenmaxxing is not a strategy for everybody, and that this day would come when token consumers have to show results for their spend.

Jensen telling you to spend half an engineer's salary on token is good for where NVIDIA is on the token value chain. Not the end token user.

From here, several things happen.

1) Metered token usage will be measured against revenue generated. Push for tokenmaxxing from employers will stop as they see their spend explode. Most valuable employees are those who do more with less.

2) Local fine-tuned models running on on-prem hardware will become increasingly popular. They may not match frontier intelligence but no-one cares, as long as there is "enough" intelligence/$.

3) Consequence of (2) is that instead of one large MoE model, it will be more useful to companies if they could have a charcuterie board of hand-picked smaller models best suited to their use cases. This is what SambaNova has been saying.

4) For (2) and (3) to happen, memory usage problem needs to be solved. Our current trajectory is unsustainable, and lots of smart people are looking at this problem. A series of algorithmic advances will lead us past the memory wall. Likely small steps, not a giant revolution.

5) When (4) happens, inferencing will slowly move out towards the edge putting the ball in companies such as Infineon and Qualcomm who have beating the edge AI drum for years. Edge AI is not a today story, but the systemic cracks will eventually give way to it.

All this indicates growing pains in the AI era. It is not a sign of the end. Problems like this are an indication that technology is maturing, and taking its natural arc to becoming enormously useful.

I stay optimistic.

https://t.co/x81vBIw5ro

[Mark Newton CMT @MarkNewtonCMT]

While negatives revolve around the general Bifurcation of the market, Overbought conditions (Lesser concern), Breadth deterioration, 80-day cycle showing weakness into July expiration, & general sector weakness OUTSIDE of Technology, it WAS important for RSP and DJIA to push back to new highs today while broader momentum remains quite strong at a time when Retail sentiment remains Skittish on rising inflation, Warsh transition, lack of complete Re-opening of the Strait just yet, and a reticence of many PM's to reach for stocks within Memory and Semis..

I see a good likelihood of ROTATION, ROTATION, ROTATION as HC, Fins come back to life. YES that can mean Value can outperform Growth potentially into the Mid-terms. Tech investors take note- it won't prove easy with Technology weekly RSI having reached the high 80s. Overall, structure and momentum mean MORE than breadth, O/B conditions, Fed or geopolitical worries.. Visit https://t.co/v0f4RMEBdV to see my daily reports and videos.. i did a 1 HOUR webinar today discussing all the best risk/rewards in this market that only has a FEW areas of Froth and bullish positioning, but yet broadly ISN"T that enthusiastic.. hmm

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

Today was mainly about Healthcare and Financials: $HNGE $GH $IART $XLF $EVER

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

Banks also breaking out of this cup-and-handle formation. $KBWB July $90 calls ITM now.

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

.@MarkNewtonCMT: Tech Is Overbought. Where the Money Goes Next. $XLY $JETS
https://t.co/OTuxDiG4ks

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

Rotation indeed! Breadth is actually positive today. Let's see if it holds. $XLF strong out of the gate. I am also in $KBWB July $90 calls.

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

Fair enough and I am no expert. But some of these people were so aggressive in advocating their views they have caused themselves and their clients damage. For example, this guy was betting against broad equity indices through a combination of selling calls and buying puts:
https://t.co/x2vwZlWTtk

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

All the "oil experts" were wrong and the market was right. Happened during Covid as well. Remember this the next time they start parading experts touting doomsday theories.
https://t.co/cbl7aertmO

[Gavekal @Gavekal]

Predictions that the depletion of petroleum stocks around the world could push oil prices to US$150/bbl before the end of June if shipping does not resume through the Strait of Hormuz are exaggerated. The world is still sitting on substantial reserves of crude and refined products that can be drawn down further over the coming months. However, the flipside of this picture is that even if there is a preliminary peace deal in the Gulf that allows oil exports to flow once again, countries will look to rebuild stocks and accumulate even bigger precautionary reserves. Even with plentiful supply, this will place a solid bid under oil prices over the medium term, argues Tom Holland in this video interview.

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

@TheOneLanceB How long before we start hearing conspiracy theories about this being somehow in Jane Street's best interests?

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

$IWM sea of green (except the AI-linked names)
https://t.co/MZlDOY6QHx

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

@AIStockSavvy These things often take a few days to bottom out and settle. Look at $CRDO for example. $AVGO and $NVDA both typically don't seem to do that well after earnings since the last few Q's.

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

$DXCM now +17% and seeing a broad recovery / double bottom in the sector ETF $IHI +3% today.
Seeing PTs in the $80-84 range.

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

📊 Earnings / catalyst trade ideas for tomorrow
(Not Financial Advice)
$EQH $RDDT $FSLR $GWRE $DXCM $NOW $D $AVAH
📌 See pinned tweet for how I use my WL

[Minerva Capital @MinervaCap]

Picked up $DXCM and $NOW from the WL. Also added $ZETA for ad-tech exposure from the earlier $RAMP buyout news. Notes below. NFA