We have replicated 2 Models (Deep Learning and Stochastic Differential Equations Based Models) from the paper "Limit Order Book Simulations: A Review" by JP Morgan and University College London. 🧵
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In general, if you wanna exit a big position in a really short time( let’s say few minutes), you need to nuke simultaneously on multiple exchanges on both spot&perp with big orders so that you can fuck mms and leave no arbitrage opportunities for arbitragers.
I love long lasting crypto businesses that are either:
- there’s no loss when the market is bad, you make more when the market is good, you make less when it’s bad. For example: News Trading, botting, affiliation, MEV
Or
- have high entry barriers/ require specific edge/ combination of talents&resources. For example, mass sybil airdrop farm with tons of Chinese labors
Or
- highly profitable opportunities in the grey zone, for example, the DWF Labs’ Trading strategy. They can do this because they operate in countries that manipulation of altcoins isn’t a legal problem, many countries actually treat manipulation of altcoins like pump&dump the price of watches/shoes/cars/arts which the gov don’t cares.
In general, I consider myself as a businessman in the crypto space instead of been a trader. I think of running businesses on certainties instead of trading on uncertainties.
Everyone being giga bullish on a project before its launch usually means that it won't be a great long trade.
I am thinking about stuff like Monad, EigenLayer, Berachain
The huge upside has been captured in the private market.
Then it launches at high valuation, and the only thing you can do is provide exit liquidity for all the people that got in on the private market.
Think about the highest ROI tokens we've had, ever.
They have never been giga hyped before launch, right ?
Then of course, this all depends on launch valuations. Hyped projects that launch in shitty conditions could become good longs ( $ZRO, $ZK ?). But a general rule for me is that overhyped projects won't give interesting upside.