James Lewis

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

@ELuttwak What do you think about Putin's need to put in competent generals vis-à-vis his need to put in sycophants?

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

The most fragile front for #Russia is not in #Ukraine, it's in Moscow.

#coup #russia #Україна

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

The Russian military has consistently shown that is is bad at improvising and responding to surprise. Should #Ukraine make a significant breakthrough, one expects #Russia to face severe challenges.

#Zaporizhzhia #Україна #Запоріжжя

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

'Hors de combat' does not mean 'retreating.' It refers to soldiers who have surrendered, captured, or are too wounded or sick to fight.

#Zaporizhzhia #Russia #Ukraine

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

With one counterbalancer, #Wagner, removed, the Russian Army is an increasingly large threat to #Putin.

#Russia #россия #coup

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

@WarFrontline Anybody with £56 want to confirm for us?

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA This tweet has been accurate for 70 years.

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

The same forces that positioned to defend Moscow from Wagner can feasibly intervene against Putin for their own aims. It is in the cards for the MoD to try their own hand.

#Putin #Wagner #Russia

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

When involved in a losing war, the military is more likely to intervene in politics but not in the interest of peace. Rather, they often seek to expand the war effort. Examples include the 1961 Algiers Coup and the 1945 Kyujo Incident.

#Wagner #Russia #Prigozhin #Putin

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Wagner, and especially Prigozhin, agree with the invasion, they object to the way that the Russian Army (more specifically senior leadership) handled it. Their view is compatible with most of the pro-war base in Russia. The big change over the last 24 hours is that they objected to Putin as well.

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

I can be a bit pedantic with the word 'coup,' but the things going on in Russia are a bit different. May not seem relevant, but open rebellion is more destructive.

#Russia #Putin #Wagner

[Seva @SevaUT]

right, the closer parallel is not the 91 coup but the Russian peasant rebellions of Razin and Pugachev. The latter especially - a disaffected officer unhappy with the prosecution of a war (against the ottomans)

[Anton Shekhovtsov @A_SHEKH0VTS0V]

And also the weather, come on.

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

The repercussions for being on the losing side of a coup or revolution are severe. It makes sense for a lot of soldiers to remain neutral until one side starts to look like the winner.

#Russia #Wagner #Putin #Kremlin

[COSSACKGUNDI @cossackgundi]

If Wagner is Successful, Prigozhin will be forced to Purge the Military of anyone who didn't side with them. If Putin is successful, he will also be forced to purge the military of those who sided with Wagner or did nothing, as well as reorganising his inner Security frame, both of which will effect the current Frontline Operations

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

Incumbents can often reverse a coup by making public announcements, which is why coupists often take radio and TV broadcast centers. If it's an overt, popular change in government, like a revolution, such a move won't do much.

#Putin #Wagner #Kremlin #Moscow

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

@texaspetros I mean, take the route with no tolls. Right?

[matthew. @iAmTheWarax]

if i was putin i would simply create another army to protect me from the army i created to protect me from the army i created to protect me from the army i created to protect me from the army i created to protect me from the army i created to protect me from the army

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

In 1978, an Afghan commander warned the president that a coup was in the works and suggested that he be allowed to set up his forces in the capital. The President approved, and the officer used those forces to launch his own coup.

#Moscow #Moscou #Wagner #Shoigu

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

A coup in Moscow would be difficult, but crazier things have happened. A successful one, however, would not come with warning.

#Wagner #Moscow #Prigozhin

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

@ElenaWicker Is there a favorite?

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

Attacking dams is generally a violation of Article 56 of the 1977 Additional Protocols. Exceptions are made if such an attack is the only way to end specific military support.

https://t.co/wlHhzh5Iwo
#Kakhovka

[James Lewis @MinistryOfLewis]

@ElenaWicker Underlining helps me review later. Doubles as a bookmark.