Mark Zuckerberg is bankrupting a $22 billion startup because they refused to sell to him.
The company is Kalshi.
They run the largest prediction market in the US. Users bet real money on real-world outcomes.
Last year, prediction markets did $28 billion in monthly volume across the industry.
This month, they did $220 BILLION.
The sector literally 8x'd in a single year.
Bernstein now projects the entire prediction market industry will hit $1 TRILLION by 2030.
Zuckerberg saw the growth curve coming. Last year, when Kalshi was valued at only $2 billion, he sat down with founder and CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss buying the entire company.
Mansour said no.
Kalshi went on to raise at $11 billion in December. Then $22 billion in March. It is now pursuing a $40 billion round and openly weighing an IPO.
Zuckerberg's response:
He walked back to Meta headquarters, took every piece of information he learned in that meeting, and directed a small internal team to build a Kalshi clone from the ground up.
Meta's version is called Arena. It uses Llama to generate the questions. Every one of Meta's 3.5 billion daily users will get access.
And here's where the plan gets ruthless...
Meta is deliberately launching with play money. That single decision lets Zuckerberg dodge every gambling regulator on Earth while he trains billions of users to bet on prediction markets.
Meanwhile Kalshi is spending millions fighting state gambling laws, the CFTC, an Illinois sports tax, a Minnesota felony statute, and the Department of Justice.
Kalshi is the crash test dummy. Meta is the getaway driver.
The moment the regulatory war is settled, Zuckerberg flips the switch. Arena becomes a real-money market, and 3.5 billion users are already trained to use it. Kalshi's user base of a few million cannot compete.
This is the exact playbook Meta ran on Snapchat in 2016 when Instagram Stories launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on TikTok in 2020 when Reels launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on Twitter in 2023 when Threads launched.
The FTC took Meta to court over this pattern last year and called it "buy or bury." The judge sided with Meta. So the playbook is legally protected.
Tarek Mansour walked into a meeting with the most predatory copycat in tech history and gave him the entire pitch deck for the fastest growing product in Silicon Valley.
Six months later, Zuckerberg is executing on that intel while Mansour is stuck defending his company in courts across America.
Kalshi survived Zuckerberg's offer. But it probably will not survive Zuckerberg's clone.
Meta ended Q1 with $81 billion in cash. That is enough to buy every prediction market company on Earth six times over. Zuckerberg is choosing to STEAL them instead because he can, and because the courts already gave him permission.
The next 12 months will decide whether Kalshi becomes a $50 billion IPO or a cautionary tale about what happens when a founder says no to Meta.
What do you think?
Atlanta was ranked #2 in the U.S. for education levels in a Forbes Advisor study.
The ranking is based on how many adults have college and graduate degrees, with major universities like Georgia Tech, Emory, and Georgia State contributing to that.
Waymo reveals Charlamagne Tha God has allegedly violated FCC and FTC violations when he went on air and endorsed Jay Z’s casino without revealing he had equity in it.
According to FTC Endorsement Guides:
Material financial connections between endorsers and companies must be clearly and conspicuously disclosed. Undisclosed equity stakes could constitute deceptive advertising/plugola violations. Both the endorser and the company can face civil penalties, consent decrees, or lawsuits.
Simply put: If you own part of a company or stand to make money from it, you have to tell people before you promote it.
Will anyone talk about this though?
A former Buckeye police officer is headed to trial on two counts of aggravated assault after supervisors described the force as excessive and unnecessary against people who were handcuffed and in custody, including a pregnant woman.
At the Hawks’ presser, Kingston Flemings mentioned putting on weight. I asked HC Quin Snyder about the notion that an undersized guard might not have that much of an impact on the game.
“I think generalizations like that are really dangerous. Size is real but so is quickness.”
Tay Keith went live very emotional just a few hours before he reportedly passed away at the age of 29 leaving fans speculating that he took his own life 🤔👀
"Everyday just gets harder and harder but I try my best to push through"
"Nobody really cares about me just my beats"
Nickeil had one of the most efficient months of recent years in March, becoming the first player to post 20+ PPG on 50/40/90 splits since Kawhi Leonard in January 2024 😮💨 @GeorgiaPower
Closer look 🔍
Jalen Brunson appears to have a hidden fistful of Victor Wembanyama’s jersey, while attempting to pin him in place.
Wembanyama reacts by swatting him away, and the chain reaction ends with Stephon Castle catching contact in the face while Brunson hits the deck. 👀
#Spurs #PorVida #NBAFinals #Knicks