Finn

VRS Enjoyer
Stats & Data Guy
EPICLAN Lead CS Admin
UKIC League Admin
Contact: [email protected]

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

The 🇪🇺 EU VRS race for the final spots. ~11 teams fighting for 5 invite slots.

Key games today:
🇷🇺 magic vs 🇲🇳 MongolZ
🗺️ JiJieHao vs 🇪🇺 FaZe
🇩🇪 BIG vs 🇷🇺 PARIVISION

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@Sxspecter ~55% currently

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

🗺️ JJH keep their major dreams alive in a do or die game.

🇪🇺 FaZe are knocked to the lower bracket of DraculaN. Still with a good chance of the major but pressure is on.

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@vDanDesign I could try explaining it but I can’t write to save my life.

Best to read a succinct article by MIRAA on the topic https://t.co/jKPVUWNsfj

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@CommarderFM This morning I had them at ~21-22% with a win

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

Typo in the Navi note too. They’re fortunate to *not* have forfeits. 1AM strikes again

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

The 🇪🇺 EU VRS race for the final spots. ~11 teams fighting for 5 invite slots.

Key games today:
🇷🇺 magic vs 🇲🇳 MongolZ
🗺️ JiJieHao vs 🇪🇺 FaZe
🇩🇪 BIG vs 🇷🇺 PARIVISION

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@subnicioforma Leads to no forfeits* . Whoops it was 1am apologies

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@pizzaafacee @Cord_Monkfruit The % odds are one message above

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@sprite_ko @Cord_Monkfruit The most recent batch is public 😞

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

The FUT & Astralis note was written at 1am and it is horrid English.

Essentially there is a chance FUT don’t get their 5 games to get their new roster registered. If cmtry is on both rosters there’s situations where FUT are ranked ahead, and there are situations where Astralis are ranked ahead. The chance either could be ahead of the other is the risk for both

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@RyanAtRBM

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

🇪🇺 FaZe are 0-1 down in their opening DraculaN 7 playoff game

📉A loss against Astral would drop them to a 47% chance of qualifying to the major.

FaZe are under a lot of pressure.

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@edeninhooo @TeamBayanhongor if they attend EPICLAN with broky, theres a chance that they could earn some VRS points.

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@0xWuki It’s slightly more complex as it hinges on so many things.

If 100T had beat a team worth more than sangal, they’d be above this cliff edge even with the losses. If their network had done better they’d be above the cliff edge etc etc.

But to simplify it, yeah

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

How 🇪🇺 100T have inadvertently boosted NaVi's major hopes.

A 🇪🇺 NaVi Major% update (and a rare longer post)
-NaVi now likely at ~67.7%

The EU major race is on a knife edge, the average gap between 18th and 19th is expected to be ~8 points and can regularly go as low as a <1 point gap.

100T are the team (currently) most likely to finish 19th, and when they do its a ~8 point gap to 18th.

Previously I had the assumption that NaVi would prioritise Beijing over playing out HyperX. This was because if they went out of PGL, even with a win at HyperX they could still miss qualification in a lot of cases by a margin of ~10-15 points. The reasoning for this assumption being: Would you throw away two ESL events for what would still be an unideal shot at the major. (maybe they would have, i dont know)

100T losing to both Heroic and mibr has now affected that. NaVi have also benefitted from Heroic dropping from Relog Tesla (and some smaller causes too). Had 100T came 3rd at Pulse III, they would often end above NaVi, with NaVi occassionally being pushed to 19th even with a win at HyperX.

Luminosity can also end behind NaVi in 19th with a similar gap, a win over Heroic would roughly be the difference and is no longer possible after they dropped from Tesla Cup.

It is now far more likely that playing out HyperX will lead to NaVi finishing 18th (and qualifying) instead of finishing 19th. Due to this, I've now updated the sims to assume that NaVi will play out HyperX fully (this wasnt in this morning's update)

Crucial Note: If their HyperX group isnt full, this changes the maths significantly due to how close everything is.

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@DGennnnnnnnnnn after beating Alliance ive got them at 63%

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

🇪🇺🌎🌏A new all region update for the PGL 🇸🇬 Singapore Major race

🇲🇳MongolZ outside the major qual slots.
🇪🇺 NiP are flying, EU down to 6 spots left. Falcons Stage3 at risk
🇺🇸 Wildcard &amp; 🇧🇷 Imperial benefit from FIRE slots.
🇨🇳 TYLOO confirmed at HyperX Circuit for huge gains

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@puppeht 2 losses

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@bigz13260 1st and theyre almost certainly through.

2nd and they can often be through, they do end in 19th a lot of the time though.

Would depend on who they beat and their network's performance

[Finn @MischiefCS2]

@ConkyOCE admittedly was before MongolZ 2-0d Alliance.

If they finish 5th-6th they still need to go 2-3 at PGL to be fully safe (easier said than done), but their % odds will have gone up.

[HLTV.org @HLTVorg]

It's time for a VRS special on "Come Here" 👀📊

In light of the Major race heating up for Singapore and the recent BCG/Sashi scandal, @NER0cs and @Nohte invited VRS expert @MischiefCS2 to talk about the good and bad parts of the current system:

📺 https://t.co/Lz3hfQFW1p