I got into MSTY about a month ago. Been into BTC and MSTR for awhile but never really took the time to understand what MSTY was doing...and how amazing it is.
When I started digging into I was first amazed by it's performance but also more importantly, unable to find the
@BitcoinHornet I understand they might hold back some gains from previous periods and pay in periods where there are more losses. Like potentially this period. Has anyone been tracking how much excess realized gains there are since they beginning? Can they carry over from previous years?
$MSTY Performance for 6/16/25
Net Assets: $4.78B (+0.34% d/d, $21.5/share)
Shares Outstanding: 225.95M (+0.07% d/d)
Unrealized gain on holdings: +$25.5M (+$0.11/share and +$17M today)
Realized daily gain: $0M
Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share)
Pretty quiet day with both $MSTR and $MSTY down slightly today. There was a $17M positive shift in unrealized gain today with the synthetic down $1.3M in value and the Short Calls gaining $18M today. No closing out of contracts today so no realized gains.
Had a few minutes tonight and wanted to look back at some data on the 6/20 synthetic longs to understand the recent underperformance. A good mental model for $MSTY that I like and that I saw here on Twitter is that we get 6-8 big bets per year on each synthetic long when itโs held for roughly 6-8 weeks. Performance struggles when we miss one of these bets.
For the 6/20 synthetic long, we started acquiring contracts at the 390 on 5/1/25 when $MSTR closed at $381.6 and the 420 on 5/12/25 when $MSTR closed at $404.90. The synthetic long eventually grew to ~98,000 contracts on the 390 and ~15,000 contracts on the 420, with a collective cost basis of $441M. Unfortunately, $MSTR traded up to $430 on 5/12/25 and $426 on 5/22/25 before dropping significantly to a low of $359 on 5/30/25. The last of the 6/20 synthetic was closed out on 6/12/25 with $MSTR at $379.74. Total loss on the 6/20 synthetic from both the 390 and 420 was $157M. Tough break of buying at the peak and needing to unload at the low.
Model ๐
$MSTY Performance for 6/16/25
Net Assets: $4.78B (+0.34% d/d, $21.5/share)
Shares Outstanding: 225.95M (+0.07% d/d)
Unrealized gain on holdings: +$25.5M (+$0.11/share and +$17M today)
Realized daily gain: $0M
Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share)
Pretty quiet day with both $MSTR and $MSTY down slightly today. There was a $17M positive shift in unrealized gain today with the synthetic down $1.3M in value and the Short Calls gaining $18M today. No closing out of contracts today so no realized gains.
Had a few minutes tonight and wanted to look back at some data on the 6/20 synthetic longs to understand the recent underperformance. A good mental model for $MSTY that I like and that I saw here on Twitter is that we get 6-8 big bets per year on each synthetic long when itโs held for roughly 6-8 weeks. Performance struggles when we miss one of these bets.
For the 6/20 synthetic long, we started acquiring contracts at the 390 on 5/1/25 when $MSTR closed at $381.6 and the 420 on 5/12/25 when $MSTR closed at $404.90. The synthetic long eventually grew to ~98,000 contracts on the 390 and ~15,000 contracts on the 420, with a collective cost basis of $441M. Unfortunately, $MSTR traded up to $430 on 5/12/25 and $426 on 5/22/25 before dropping significantly to a low of $359 on 5/30/25. The last of the 6/20 synthetic was closed out on 6/12/25 with $MSTR at $379.74. Total loss on the 6/20 synthetic from both the 390 and 420 was $157M. Tough break of buying at the peak and needing to unload at the low.
Model ๐
$MSTY Performance for 6/16/25
Net Assets: $4.78B (+0.34% d/d, $21.5/share)
Shares Outstanding: 225.95M (+0.07% d/d)
Unrealized gain on holdings: +$25.5M (+$0.11/share and +$17M today)
Realized daily gain: $0M
Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share)
Pretty quiet day with both $MSTR and $MSTY down slightly today. There was a $17M positive shift in unrealized gain today with the synthetic down $1.3M in value and the Short Calls gaining $18M today. No closing out of contracts today so no realized gains.
Had a few minutes tonight and wanted to look back at some data on the 6/20 synthetic longs to understand the recent underperformance. A good mental model for $MSTY that I like and that I saw here on Twitter is that we get 6-8 big bets per year on each synthetic long when itโs held for roughly 6-8 weeks. Performance struggles when we miss one of these bets.
For the 6/20 synthetic long, we started acquiring contracts at the 390 on 5/1/25 when $MSTR closed at $381.6 and the 420 on 5/12/25 when $MSTR closed at $404.90. The synthetic long eventually grew to ~98,000 contracts on the 390 and ~15,000 contracts on the 420, with a collective cost basis of $441M. Unfortunately, $MSTR traded up to $430 on 5/12/25 and $426 on 5/22/25 before dropping significantly to a low of $359 on 5/30/25. The last of the 6/20 synthetic was closed out on 6/12/25 with $MSTR at $379.74. Total loss on the 6/20 synthetic from both the 390 and 420 was $157M. Tough break of buying at the peak and needing to unload at the low.
Model ๐
$MSTY Performance for 6/16/25
Net Assets: $4.78B (+0.34% d/d, $21.5/share)
Shares Outstanding: 225.95M (+0.07% d/d)
Unrealized gain on holdings: +$25.5M (+$0.11/share and +$17M today)
Realized daily gain: $0M
Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share)
Pretty quiet day with both $MSTR and $MSTY down slightly today. There was a $17M positive shift in unrealized gain today with the synthetic down $1.3M in value and the Short Calls gaining $18M today. No closing out of contracts today so no realized gains.
Had a few minutes tonight and wanted to look back at some data on the 6/20 synthetic longs to understand the recent underperformance. A good mental model for $MSTY that I like and that I saw here on Twitter is that we get 6-8 big bets per year on each synthetic long when it's held for roughly 6-8 weeks. Performance struggles when we miss one of these bets.
For the 6/20 synthetic long, we started acquiring contracts at the 390 on 5/1/25 when $MSTR closed at $381.6 and the 420 on 5/12/25 when $MSTR closed at $404.90. The synthetic long eventually grew to ~98,000 contracts on the 390 and ~15,000 contracts on the 420, with a collective cost basis of $441M. Unfortunately, $MSTR traded up to $430 on 5/12/25 and $426 on 5/22/25 before dropping significantly to a low of $359 on 5/30/25. The last of the 6/20 synthetic was closed out on 6/12/25 with $MSTR at $379.74. Total loss on the 6/20 synthetic from both the 390 and 420 was $157M. Tough break of buying at the peak and needing to unload at the low.
Model ๐
$MSTY Performance for 6/13/25
Iโm back! Did you miss my updates? Was traveling for a few days and missed an update. Shout out to @RetireonDividen, @cryptoUwe and @BitcoinHornet for sending me the missing docs.
Net Assets: $4.76B (+0.58% d/d, $21.10/share)
Shares Outstanding: 225.8M (+0.1% d/d)
Unrealized gain on holdings: +$8.4M (+$0.04/share and +$400k yesterday)
Realized daily gain: +$25.8M (+$0.11/share)
Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share)
The synthetic long (7/11 370, 7/18 370 and 380 Calls and Short Puts) has an unrealized gain of $18M as of Friday. The Short Puts, with an unrealized gain of $54M, have lost about 2/3 of their gains since earlier in the week as $MSTR trended back to the low $380โs, right up against the strike prices of one leg of the synthetic long. The Long Calls have chopped the last few days, sitting at an unrealized loss of -$36M.
Earlier in the week, the remaining ~25,000 contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long were closed out and rolled for a $17M realized loss.
This week the weekly Short Calls expiring 6/13 generated $41.7M in realized gains, including $28M on Friday alone when the remaining contracts were closed out and rolled to the next week.
Weโre currently sitting at a realized loss this period of -$77M or -$0.34/share. Itโs going to be tough to generate a strong dividend this period if $MSTR canโt break out of the chop between $370 and $390-ish, although the weekly hedge of the short calls has been generating strong gains (as designed when the $MSTR is down and/or flat). Need $MSTR to make a move up in the next two weeks.
Model ๐
$MSTY Performance for 6/13/25
Iโm back! Did you miss my updates? Was traveling for a few days and missed an update. Shout out to @RetireonDividen, @cryptoUwe and @BitcoinHornet for sending me the missing docs.
Net Assets: $4.76B (+0.58% d/d, $21.10/share)
Shares Outstanding: 225.8M (+0.1% d/d)
Unrealized gain on holdings: +$8.4M (+$0.04/share and +$400k yesterday)
Realized daily gain: +$25.8M (+$0.11/share)
Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share)
The synthetic long (7/11 370, 7/18 370 and 380 Calls and Short Puts) has an unrealized gain of $18M as of Friday. The Short Puts, with an unrealized gain of $54M, have lost about 2/3 of their gains since earlier in the week as $MSTR trended back to the low $380โs, right up against the strike prices of one leg of the synthetic long. The Long Calls have chopped the last few days, sitting at an unrealized loss of -$36M.
Earlier in the week, the remaining ~25,000 contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long were closed out and rolled for a $17M realized loss.
This week the weekly Short Calls expiring 6/13 generated $41.7M in realized gains, including $28M on Friday alone when the remaining contracts were closed out and rolled to the next week.
Weโre currently sitting at a realized loss this period of -$77M or -$0.34/share. Itโs going to be tough to generate a strong dividend this period if $MSTR canโt break out of the chop between $370 and $390-ish, although the weekly hedge of the short calls has been generating strong gains (as designed when the $MSTR is down and/or flat). Need $MSTR to make a move up in the next two weeks.
Model ๐
$MSTY Performance for 6/13/25
Iโm back! Did you miss my updates? Was traveling for a few days and missed an update. Shout out to @RetireonDividen, @cryptoUwe and @BitcoinHornet for sending me the missing docs.
Net Assets: $4.76B (+0.58% d/d, $21.10/share)
Shares Outstanding: 225.8M (+0.1% d/d)
Unrealized gain on holdings: +$8.4M (+$0.04/share and +$400k yesterday)
Realized daily gain: +$25.8M (+$0.11/share)
Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share)
The synthetic long (7/11 370, 7/18 370 and 380 Calls and Short Puts) has an unrealized gain of $18M as of Friday. The Short Puts, with an unrealized gain of $54M, have lost about 2/3 of their gains since earlier in the week as $MSTR trended back to the low $380โs, right up against the strike prices of one leg of the synthetic long. The Long Calls have chopped the last few days, sitting at an unrealized loss of -$36M.
Earlier in the week, the remaining ~25,000 contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long were closed out and rolled for a $17M realized loss.
This week the weekly Short Calls expiring 6/13 generated $41.7M in realized gains, including $28M on Friday alone when the remaining contracts were closed out and rolled to the next week.
Weโre currently sitting at a realized loss this period of -$77M or -$0.34/share. Itโs going to be tough to generate a strong dividend this period if $MSTR canโt break out of the chop between $370 and $390-ish, although the weekly hedge of the short calls has been generating strong gains (as designed when the $MSTR is down and/or flat). Need $MSTR to make a move up in the next two weeks.
Model ๐
$MSTY Performance for 6/13/25
Iโm back! Did you miss my updates? Was traveling for a few days and missed an update. Shout out to @RetireonDividen, @cryptoUwe and @BitcoinHornet for sending me the missing docs.
Net Assets: $4.76B (+0.58% d/d, $21.10/share)
Shares Outstanding: 225.8M (+0.1% d/d)
Unrealized gain on holdings: +$8.4M (+$0.04/share and +$400k yesterday)
Realized daily gain: +$25.8M (+$0.11/share)
Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share)
The synthetic long (7/11 370, 7/18 370 and 380 Calls and Short Puts) has an unrealized gain of $18M as of Friday. The Short Puts, with an unrealized gain of $54M, have lost about 2/3 of their gains since earlier in the week as $MSTR trended back to the low $380โs, right up against the strike prices of one leg of the synthetic long. The Long Calls have chopped the last few days, sitting at an unrealized loss of -$36M.
Earlier in the week, the remaining ~25,000 contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long were closed out and rolled for a $17M realized loss.
This week the weekly Short Calls expiring 6/13 generated $41.7M in realized gains, including $28M on Friday alone when the remaining contracts were closed out and rolled to the next week.
Weโre currently sitting at a realized loss this period of -$77M or -$0.34/share. Itโs going to be tough to generate a strong dividend this period if $MSTR canโt break out of the chop between $370 and $390-ish, although the weekly hedge of the short calls has been generating strong gains (as designed when the $MSTR is down and/or flat). Need $MSTR to make a move up in the next two weeks.
Model ๐
Does anyone have the $MSTY trades and EOD holdings for Tuesday, June 10th?
Missed getting it while I was traveling and need it to update the model.
Any help would be appreciated.
Does anyone have the $MSTY trades and EOD holdings for Tuesday, June 10th?
Missed getting it while I was traveling and need it to update the model.
Any help would be appreciated.